Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yazarlar
- Şan, Murat(7)
- Kankal, Murat(6)
- Kurnaz, Muammer(5)
- Nacar, Sinan(4)
- Okkan, Umut(2)
- Vaissi, Somaye(2)
- Acar, Emine(1)
- Akçay, Fatma(1)
- Aslan, Ramazan(1)
- Aydin, Aydanur(1)
- Ayşe Tazegül Bekci(1)
- Bahadır, Muhammet(1)
- Bayram, Adem(1)
- Bağcivan, Gülcan(1)
- Bekircan, Çağrı(1)
- Büşra Özlok(1)
- Ediz, Çiçek(1)
- Hatipoğlu, İlter Kutlu(1)
- Hernandez, Axel(1)
- Işık, Fatih(1)
- Kaya, Afşin Ahmet(1)
- Köçer, Musab Süleyman(1)
- Kürşat Şahin, Mehmet(1)
- Melis Dilan Akdemir(1)
- Meryem Akbulut(1)
- Mizrak, And Sefa(1)
- Mustafa Berent(1)
- Müjdat Maraşlı(1)
- Sahin Macit, Nazife(1)
- Tosun, Onur(1)
- Uzun, Sevda(1)
- Yıldız, Mehmet Berkant(1)
- Zeybek, Halil İbrahim(1)
- Şahin, Mehmet Kürşat(1)
- Şahin, Nagehan(1)
Yayınlar
- Yüksek Lisans TeziAçık Erişim2026COP29 bağlamında Türkiye'nin yenilenebilir enerji politikaları ve küresel iklim hedefleri
Müjdat Maraşlı
Bu araştırmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin yenilenebilir enerji politikalarını incelemek ve bu politikaların 2024 yılında Azerbaycan’ın Bakü şehrinde gerçekleştirilen COP29 Birleşmiş Milletler İklim Değişikliği Konferansı’na yansımalarını değerlendirmektir. Bu kapsamda Türkiye’nin enerji politikalarının dönüşümü, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının gelişimi, iklim değişikliği politikaları ve küresel iklim hedefleriyle uyum süreci karşılaştırmalı olarak ele alınmıştır. Araştırmada nitel araştırma yöntemi benimsenmiş ve doküman analizi tekniği kullanılmıştır. Bu bağlamda COP29 karar metinleri, ulusal enerji strateji belgeleri, Türkiye’nin Ulusal Katkı Beyanı, uluslararası enerji raporları, yenilenebilir enerji istatistikleri ve konuya ilişkin akademik çalışmalar incelenmiştir. Elde edilen veriler içerik analizi yöntemiyle değerlendirilerek yenilenebilir enerji politikaları, karbon emisyonlarının azaltılması, sürdürülebilir kalkınma, enerji dönüşümü, net sıfır emisyon hedefleri ve COP29 süreci temel temalar olarak ele alınmıştır. Araştırma sonucunda Türkiye’nin yenilenebilir enerji politikalarında özellikle son yıllarda önemli ilerlemeler kaydettiği gözlenmiştir. Güneş, rüzgâr, hidroelektrik ve jeotermal enerji yatırımlarının enerji dönüşüm sürecinde önemli rol oynadığı görülmüştür. COP29 sürecinin Türkiye’nin enerji politikalarında sürdürülebilirlik, yeşil dönüşüm, net sıfır emisyon ve uluslararası iklim hedefleriyle uyum konularını daha görünür hale getirdiği ortaya konmuştur. Bununla birlikte fosil yakıt bağımlılığı, enerji altyapısındaki sınırlılıklar ve finansman ihtiyacı, Türkiye’nin küresel iklim hedefleriyle tam uyum sağlamasının önündeki temel engeller olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak Türkiye’nin enerji politikalarının tam dönüşüm öncesi bir geçiş aşamasında olduğu ve yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarının hızlandırılması, enerji verimliliğinin artırılması, teknolojik altyapının güçlendirilmesi ve iklim politikalarıyla enerji politikalarının daha bütünleşik biçimde yürütülmesi gerektiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
- Derleme MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ1Quaternary palaeoenvironmental archives of the Indian subcontinent and their imprint on herpetofaunal biogeography: A multi-proxy synthesis
Kurnaz, Muammer
This review presents the first integrated proxy, mechanism and biotic-response framework for the Indian Quaternary, linking the Subcontinent's dense network of palaeoenvironmental archives to the biogeographic trajectory of its endemic herpetofauna. Speleothem δ18O records, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal sediment cores, Karewa and peninsular lake sequences, Siwalik and Narmada alluvium, and Kurnool cave deposits together document Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) variability on orbital, millennial, centennial and historical timescales (the historical band here denoting the past ∼2000 years, resolved by dated speleothem and documentary records). Against this proxy backbone, the fossil and molecular phylogeographic record of Indian amphibians and reptiles is evaluated as a biogenic assemblage here, the body of biological evidence (fossils, subfossils and the phylogeographic signatures of living taxa) that, like pollen or foraminifera, records past environmental conditions that complements geological and climatological archives. Three patterns emerge. At orbital scale, ISM variability aligns with Plio–Pleistocene diversification slowdowns in Western Ghats ranoids and with the Late Pliocene lineage divergence of the Himalayan toad Duttaphrynus himalayanus across the Thakkhola basin. Abrupt Holocene excursions, including the 8.2 ka and 4.2 ka events, are resolved at high precision in speleothem and marine archives but remain untested against coalescent demographic inference in Indian herpetofauna. Late Pleistocene aridity, most severe at the Last Glacial Maximum, coincides with community-level impoverishment in peninsular cave faunas at Kurnool, although the available evidence establishes co-occurrence rather than a demonstrated causal role for aridity relative to co-varying thermal and vegetation change. Three proxy-calibrated research priorities follow: microvertebrate taphonomy in Narmada and Karewa sequences, population genomics tied to speleothem chronology, and species-distribution hindcasting to the LGM, mid-Holocene and 4.2 ka intervals. The synthesis contributes to a biogenic assessment of Quaternary-to-Recent climate impacts on life on the Indian Subcontinent, aligned with UN Sustainable Development Goals 13 (Climate Action) and 15 (Life on Land), and supports future projections of amphibian and reptile response to ongoing change.
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Scopus SJRQ1Spatial heterogeneity of microscopically detected Nosema spp. infection in honeybees: Climate-associated patterns in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Türkiye
Tosun, Onur; Bekircan, Çağrı; Kurnaz, Muammer
Nosemosis has emerged as the predominant microsporidian infection of honeybees (Apis mellifera L.) in many regions, including Türkiye, yet the climatic drivers of its epidemiology remain insufficiently quantified. This study assessed the effects of temperature and relative humidity on nosemosis prevalence across seven provinces in the climatically diverse Eastern Black Sea region. A dataset of 2688 colony-level observations was analyzed using generalized linear models, mixed-effects models, beta regression, generalized additive models, and spatial autocorrelation. Both temperature and humidity were consistently significant predictors (p < .001). Quadratic temperature terms and nonlinear GAM smooths were consistent with a thermal performance pattern, with infection peaking at intermediate ranges. Humidity exerted threshold-like effects, with disproportionately higher prevalence at upper quantiles. Province-level random effects accounted for ∼18% of variance, underscoring spatial heterogeneity, while elevation was not significant once climatic variables were included. Exploratory spatial analysis (Global Moran's I = −0.476, p = 0.043) tentatively suggested dispersion rather than clustering; however, given the very small number of spatial units (n = 7), this result should be regarded as hypothesis-generating only. The beta mixed-effects model achieved moderate predictive accuracy under cross-validation (RMSE ≈ 0.109). Collectively, these findings indicate that nosemosis prevalence in the region is strongly associated with climatic variability, exhibits nonlinear and threshold-like responses, and shows pronounced spatial heterogeneity. We emphasize that these are statistical associations and that unmeasured factors (e.g., colony strength, nutrition, pesticide exposure, management practices, and co-infections) likely contribute to the unexplained variance. By integrating hierarchical, nonlinear, and spatial approaches, this study establishes a climate-associated epidemiological assessment of nosemosis risk in A. mellifera and highlights the importance of localized climatic suitability under ongoing climate change.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ4Development of the seasonal non-monotonic Mann-Kendall test for hydroclimatic data
Şan, Murat
Climate change can show different characteristics at low and high values of a time series, leading to non-monotonic trends. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and seasonal MK tests can only detect monotonic trends and ignore different behaviors in low and high value groups. To overcome this limitation, extending the recently proposed non-monotonic MK (NMK) test, the seasonal NMK (SNMK) test is proposed. The method was applied to four stations in Türkiye with four different climatic and topographic characteristics using monthly total precipitation data for the 1969-2020 for seasonal trend behavior. The results showed that while no significant trends were detected in entire time series, intra-seasonal and annual data, both monotonic and non-monotonic significant trends emerged in seasonal analyses. Especially in two stations, opposite changes in low and high values, increased seasonal variance and non-monotonic seasonal trends were observed. The test can be used for regional trend analysis by replacing seasonal data with regional data. It is also predicted that the SNMK test can be used as an effective decision support tool in areas with high seasonality such as water resources management, agriculture, energy planning and disaster management.
- Derleme MakaleAçık Erişim2026Scopus SJRQ2Physiological responses and adaptive mechanisms of amphibians and reptiles to multiple interacting environmental stressors: an integrative review
Kurnaz, Muammer
This integrative review synthesizes current knowledge on the physiological responses and adaptive mechanisms of amphibians and reptiles to multiple interacting environmental stressors, with particular emphasis on synergistic effects among temperature, hydric stress, disease, and pollution. Given the stronger empirical basis for amphibians in the existing literature, amphibian responses are covered in greater depth, while reptile-specific physiology, immunology, and emerging infectious diseases are explicitly addressed in dedicated sections throughout the review. Critical thermal tolerance analyses reveal that approximately 7.5% of amphibian species will exceed their physiological limits under a 4 °C warming scenario, with tropical lowland species already operating near their CTmax thresholds. Thermal plasticity is limited, with acclimation responses averaging only 0.13 °C increase in CTmax per 1 °C environmental warming—insufficient to track rapid climate change. Water balance regulation shows dramatic interspecific variation, with cutaneous resistance ranging from 0.05 s/cm in aquatic amphibians to >1000 s/cm in desert-adapted reptiles. Synergistic interactions between thermal and hydric stress significantly amplify vulnerability, particularly in dehydration scenarios that reduce critical thermal limits. Chemical pollutants, including heavy metals and pesticides, cause developmental abnormalities (535% increase in malformation frequency), immunosuppression, and endocrine disruption across multiple life stages. Emerging infectious diseases, particularly chytridiomycosis (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and B. salamandrivorans) and ranaviruses, drive mass mortality events globally, with co-infections exacerbating population declines. Climate change intensifies disease susceptibility through stress-mediated immunosuppression and altered pathogen dynamics. Adaptive capacity varies markedly among species. While amphibians exhibit strong phenological responses (2-4× greater than other taxa), genetic adaptation potential remains limited by narrow dispersal abilities and habitat fragmentation. Microhabitat buffering can reduce thermal extremes by several degrees but depends critically on habitat structural integrity. This review demonstrates that the pace of anthropogenic change challenges the adaptive capacity of most species, necessitating integrated conservation strategies including microhabitat preservation, climate corridor establishment, pollution mitigation, disease surveillance, and ex-situ conservation programs.
AtıfWoS2OpenAlex6
İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2026Scopus SJRQ1Stationarity or nonlinear nonstationarity? Assessing standard duration extreme rainfall under Türkiye’s complex topography and climate variability
Şahin, Nagehan; Şan, Murat; Kankal, Murat
The impact of climate change on extreme rainfall regimes requires a reassessment of the design processes of traditional hydrological structures. For this purpose, conducting an in-depth analysis of the nonstationary nature of extreme rainfall in regions with complex topography and climate is of great importance. This study examines the stationary and nonstationary states of standard duration (5 min–24 h) annual maximum rainfall data across Türkiye. For this purpose, the intensity-duration-frequency relationship was analyzed using data at 100 homogeneous stations during 1980–2020. The analyses were performed using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with eight linear and non linear location and scale parameters, based on stationary and nonstationary models. Time was included as a covariate in nonstationary models. The corrected akaike information criterion and likelihood ratio test were used to select the appropriate GEV distribution. Findings indicate that stationarity is generally dominant, but nonstationarity is relatively higher in a nonlinear manner in cold climates and complex topography. The effect of location and scale parameters was found to be individual in the short duration and combined in the long duration. It was observed that nonstationarity was relatively higher in complex topography than in flatter regions up to 8 h. Still, the diversity of nonlinear models decreased over the long duration. In conclusion, this study emphasizes the need to consider nonstationary approaches in designing hydrological structures, especially in climate change.
AtıfOpenAlex1İncele - Yüksek Lisans TeziAçık Erişim2025İklim değişikliğine uyum bağlamında Türkiye'de tarımsal destekleme politikalarının değerlendirilmesi: Erzincan ili örneği
Büşra Özlok
İklim değişikliği, tarımsal üretim üzerinde olumsuz etkiler oluşturmakta ve bu da gıda güvenliğini tehdit etmektedir. Artan sıcaklıklar, yağış rejiminin değişmesi, kuraklıklar ve seller, tarımsal verimliliği ve sürdürülebilirliği olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Bu durum, dünya genelinde gıda üretiminde dengesizliklere yol açarak gıda arzını ve fiyatlarını etkilemektedir. Tarımsal teşvikler ve dönüşüm ise gıda güvenliğinin sağlanmasında kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Tarım sektörüne yönelik gerçekleştirilen teşvikler, üreticilerin iklim değişikliğine uyum sağlamaları için önemli bir strateji olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu teşvikler, çevre dostu tarım uygulamalarını, su verimliliğini artıran teknolojileri, iklim değişikliğine dayanıklı ürün çeşitlerini ve sürdürülebilir üretim yöntemlerini desteklemek amacıyla sunulabilir. Bu çalışmada iklim değişikliği ve gıda güvenliği çerçevesinde tarımsal dönüşüm ve tarımsal teşvik politikaları ele alınmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında Erzincan ilinde tarımsal üretim yapan 17 çiftçi ile görüşme yapılarak nitel analiz yöntemiyle veriler analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular sonucunda iklim değişikliği, gıda güvenliği ve tarımsal teşviklerin çiftçiler üzerinde etkileri, sahada karşılaşılan problemler ve politika önerileri ortaya konulmuştur.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2025An Integrated Evaluation of Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability in G20 Countries Using Advanced MCDM Methods
Sahin Macit, Nazife
This study analytically assesses the climate change and environmental sustainability performance of G20 countries using data from the 2024 Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) and Environmental Performance Index (EPI) reports. The analysis employs Sum-Weighted Information (SWI) and Ranking Alternatives with Weights of Criterion (RAWEC), which are Logarithmic Decomposition of Criteria Importance (LODECI)-based multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. The study created three separate decision matrices, taking into account the CCPI and EPI criteria individually, as well as their combination. The criterion weights were determined using the LODECI method; greenhouse gas emissions, climate policy, and air quality were the most significant criteria. The results show that China and Saudi Arabia demonstrate strong environmental performance in CCPI-based rankings, while Germany, the United Kingdom and France demonstrate strong performance in EPIbased evaluations. In the integrated analysis, Germany ranked first using both methods. The consistency of the rankings obtained using the SWI and RAWEC methods was high, which supports the reliability of the analyses. However, some differences in ranking were observed depending on the method used, the distribution of criteria and the country sample. Overall, the study emphasizes the pivotal role of methodological diversity and data-driven approaches in multidimensional environmental assessments for policy-making, while demonstrating the robustness of the findings through sensitivity and comparative analyses.
AtıfOpenAlex2
İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2025Scopus SJRQ1Spatial and temporal patterns of drought under different scenarios for Türkiye in the 21st century
Yıldız, Mehmet Berkant; Nacar, Sinan; Şan, Murat; Kankal, Murat
This study investigates the impact of climate change on drought conditions in Türkiye for two distinct future periods: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2071–2100), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). High-resolution regional climate projections from 19 GCM-RCM combinations within the EURO-CORDEX framework were evaluated. Based on performance analysis against ERA5-Land data, the four best-performing models were selected for multi-model ensemble averaging (MMEA). Drought conditions were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales. Three trend analysis methods, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's Slope, were applied to examine spatiotemporal drought patterns. SPI-based analyses show a significant increase in short- and medium-term variability (SPI-3 and SPI-6) and long-term droughts (SPI-12), especially in the Central Anatolia, Southeastern and Eastern regions. The applied trend detection methods consistently point to a widespread drying tendency, with more pronounced changes projected in the latter half of the century. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, although the drought signals are less severe, the persistence of negative trends highlights that Türkiye will still be at risk, even with moderate efforts to mitigate climate change. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrating climate-driven drought projections into national and regional planning efforts.
AtıfScopus6WoS6OpenAlex6İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2025Scopus SJRQ1The perspectives of nurses, as prominent advocates in sustainability, on the global climate crises and its impact on mental health
Ediz, Çiçek; Uzun, Sevda
Objective: To evaluate the perspective of nurses in Turkey towards the global climate crisis and its impact on mental health using a qualitative approach. Materials and Method: This study was conducted from August to September 2023 with 35 nurses living in seven regions of Turkey using an inductive qualitative approach. The researchers employed the snowball sampling method to select participants. Interviews with the participants were conducted until data saturation was reached. Thematic analysis was used to emerge themes. Results: The findings revealed five main themes (perception of the global climate crisis, effects of the global climate crisis, effects of the global climate crisis on mental health, reflections of the global climate crisis on nursing and nurses' views on prevention and intervention studies for the global climate crisis). Also, the findings revealed 12 sub-themes (physical outcomes, mental outcomes, direct and indirect impacts, psychosocial effects and personal, national and international-based reflections). Conclusion: Our study indicates that nurses exhibit genuine concern for the global climate crisis and experience psychological effects related to this pressing environmental issue. Nurses are keenly aware of their responsibility to safeguard the planet and demonstrate a strong sense of concern for the state of the world. Impact: It is evident that nurses, being prominent advocates for sustainability, are cognizant of their responsibility to protect the planet and demonstrate genuine apprehension for the state of the world. Implications: Nurses play a crucial role, as they make up 60% of the global healthcare workforce and are often the frontline healthcare professionals during natural disasters. It is vital to elucidate and clarify the terminology concerning the relationship between the climate crisis and the mental health of nurses, to determine the scope of this relationship and to make recommendations for future research areas. Patient or Public Contribution: No patient or Public Contribution.
AtıfScopus15WoS13OpenAlex15İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2025Scopus SJRQ2Niche dynamics and climate change sensitivity in western Palearctic Zamenis ratsnakes (Reptilia: Colubridae)
Vaissi, Somaye; Kürşat Şahin, Mehmet; Kurnaz, Muammer
Climate change poses a significant threat to ectothermic, dispersal-limited reptiles such as Zamenis snakes in the western Palearctic. This study used ensemble ecological models to assess the potential distribution of six Zamenis species under climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). In addition, we examined niche dynamics through overlap, equivalency, and similarity analyses. Results reveal distinct ecological niches for each species, primarily influenced by temperature and precipitation. Projected distribution shifts vary across species, with some species like Z. persicus and Z. situla showing potential for range expansion, while others such as Z. lineatus and Z. scalaris face significant habitat loss. Z. hohenackeri and Z. longissimus exhibit complex patterns of both expansion and contraction. Niche analyses indicate varying degrees of overlap among species, with a trend toward niche conservatism. This study underscores the importance of niche ecology in understanding climate change impacts and highlights the need for species-specific conservation strategies.
AtıfScopus8WoS8İncele - Doktora TeziAçık Erişim2024Afet risk yönetimi kapsamında iklim okuryazarlığı ölçeği geliştirilmesi
Ayşe Tazegül Bekci
Bu araştırma, afet risk yönetimi bağlamında iklim okuryazarlığını değerlendirmek için geçerli ve güvenilir bir ölçüm aracı geliştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Nicel araştırma yöntemlerinin kullanıldığı çalışma Ankara ilinde, 18-60 yaş arası okuryazar yetişkinleri hedef alarak yürütülmüştür. Ölçeği geliştirmek için, kapsamlı bir literatür taramasına dayalı olarak 80 ifadeden oluşan bir taslak form veri toplama aracı olarak kullanılmıştır. Alanında uzman öğretim üyelerinin yanı sıra bir dil uzmanı aracılığıyla da taslak ölçek gözden geçirilmiş ve geri bildirimde bulunulmuştur. Sonuç olarak, uzman görüşleri doğrultusunda madde sayısı 80'den 45'e düşürülmüştür. Daha sonra ölçek maddelerini test etmek için 30 katılımcı ile bir pilot çalışma gerçekleştirilmiştir. İklim okuryazarlığı ölçeğinin son versiyonu, araştırma örneklem grubundaki 18-60 yaş arası okuryazar yetişkinlere uygulanmıştır. SPSS programı kullanılarak veriler analiz edilmiştir. Ölçeğin yapı geçerliliğini değerlendirmek için açımlayıcı faktör analizi ve doğrulayıcı faktör analizi yapılmıştır. Ayrıca, ölçeğin güvenilirliğini belirlemek için iç tutarlılık katsayısı hesaplamaları ve madde analizi yapılmıştır. Madde analizi kapsamında, madde-toplam puan korelasyonları ve alt ve üst grup ortalamaları arasındaki farka dayalı olarak t-değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Faktör analizlerinin sonuçları, geliştirilen ölçeğin üç faktörden ve toplam 20 maddeden oluştuğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bu üç faktörlü yapıyı doğrulamak için doğrulayıcı faktör analizi yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar üç faktörlü yapıyı doğrulamış ve ölçeğin kalitesini değerlendirmek için uyum indeksleri incelenmiştir. Analizler sonucunda, ölçeğin Cronbach Alpha iç tutarlık katsayısı 0.974 olarak bulunmuş, ölçeğin geçerli ve güvenilir bir ölçme aracı olduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Ölçek, toplumun iklim değişikliği bilgi ve becerilerini değerlendirmek için kullanılabilir ve Türkiye'nin afet risk yönetimi bağlamında iklim okuryazarlığını geliştirmek için önerilerde bulunulabilir.
- MakaleYalnız künye2024Scopus SJRQ2Innovative Polygonal Trend Analysis (IPTA) in detecting the seasonal trend behavior of statistically downscaled precipitation for the Eastern Black Sea Basin of Turkey
Nacar, Sinan; Şan, Murat; Kankal, Murat; Okkan, Umut
This study compares projected and past seasonal precipitation trends in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey. Historical data from twelve stations representing the basin during 1981–2010 was used, while statistically downscaled data from two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) outputs of the GFDL-ESM2M general circulation model were utilized for 2021–2050. To determine the seasonal trend behaviors of precipitation variables and transitions between consecutive months, the Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) was implemented. Furthermore, the star concept was employed to illustrate the changing sizes between consecutive periods. Both scenarios showed considerable summer and autumn declines at almost all locations, with low seasonal precipitation variability. These scenarios indicated January to be the important month for trend shift, except for Rize, Pazar, and Hopa stations. The formation of several polygons, polygons intersecting, and polygons not forming on the global regression line show that the hydro-climatic cycle might be chaotic.
AtıfScopus12WoS12OpenAlex16İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2024Scopus SJRQ1Trends and amount changes of temperature and precipitation under future projections in high–low groups and intra-period for the Eastern Black Sea, the Wettest Basin in Türkiye
Nacar, Sinan; Şan, Murat; Kankal, Murat; Okkan, Umut
This study investigates the possible effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation variables in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Türkiye’s wettest and flood-prone region. The outputs of three GCMs under historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to regional scale using the multivariate adaptive regression splines method. The future monthly temperature and precipitation for 12 stations in the basin were projected for three periods: the 2030s (2021–2050), 2060s (2051–2080), and 2090s (2081–2100). In addition to relative changes, high and low groups and intra-period trends were analyzed for the first time using innovative methods. For the pessimistic scenario, an increase of 3.5 °C in the interior and 3.0 °C in the coastal areas of the basin is projected. For the optimistic scenario, these values are expected to be 2.5 and 2.0 °C, respectively. A decrease in precipitation is projected for the interior region, and a significant increase is expected for the eastern and coastal areas of the basin, especially in spring. This result indicates that floods will occur frequently coastal areas of the basin in the coming periods. Also, although the monotonic trends of temperatures during periods are higher than precipitation in interior regions, these regions may have more uncertainty as their trends are in different directions of low and high groups of different scenarios and GCMs and contribute to all trends, especially precipitation.
AtıfScopus15WoS15OpenAlex13İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2024Scopus SJRQ2Elevation-dependent growth trends of Picea orientalis (L.) Peterm forests in the Fırtına Creek Basin (Rize/Turkey)
Işık, Fatih; Bahadır, Muhammet; Zeybek, Halil İbrahim; Hatipoğlu, İlter Kutlu
Changes in climatic conditions have ecological and economic consequences or impact for trees and forest stands. In this respect, it is crucial to understand the radial growth trends of trees, their ecological response across elevation gradients, and the possible impacts of climate change on the species. In this study, Picea orientalis (L.) Peterm, located in the Fırtına Creek Basin in the northern part of the Eastern Black Sea Mountains in northeastern Turkey, was investigated along different elevation gradients in the context of climate-growth response. In the study, six site chronologies along an elevation gradient from 900 m to 2050 m were developed. Dendroclimatological methods were applied to assess the elevation-dependent radial growth characteristics of trees. In total, 200 increment cores were collected from 98 living trees. The relationships between climate and tree ring growth along the elevation gradient showed a positive relationship between growth and temperature at upper elevations (1700–1900 m) and a positive relationship between growth and precipitation at middle elevations (1400–1600 m). In particular, January–April mean temperatures and May rainfall were positively correlated with tree-ring growth. At lower elevations (900–1100 m), the correlation coefficients between climate and growth are insignificant because, at these altitudes, the species have optimum ecological conditions. It was also found that mean temperatures between 0 °C and 2 °C in January–April and total precipitation between 60 and 100 mm in January–February positively affect tree growth. However, if these thresholds are exceeded, it is possible that growth may be adversely affected. This research underscores the complex interplay between climate variables and tree growth along elevation gradients, highlighting the need for adaptive management strategies in the face of changing climatic conditions.
AtıfScopus4OpenAlex2İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2024Scopus SJRQ1Spatiotemporal analysis of transition probabilities of wet and dry days under SSPs scenarios in the semi-arid Susurluk Basin, Türkiye
Şan, Murat; Nacar, Sinan; Kankal, Murat; Bayram, Adem
Precipitation, especially in regions dominated by the Mediterranean climate, is one of the most critical parameters of the hydrological cycle and the environment affected by climate change. One the one hand, the transition probabilities of wet and dry days in precipitation occurrence are a relatively new topic, on the other hand these are essential in defining the regional climate. For the first time, spatiotemporal variations of transition probabilities of wet and dry days in the Susurluk Basin, northwestern Türkiye, dominated by a semi-arid Mediterranean climate and also having a mountain climate, were analyzed based on the observation (1979–2014) and future terms (2030–2059 as short and 2070–2099 as long), under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. To do this, statistical downscaling was performed for 14 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP6. By applying an ensemble of four high-performing GCMs, four indices for transition probabilities of wet and dry, i.e., a dry day following a dry day (FDD), a wet day following a dry day (FDW), a dry day following a wet day (FWD), and a wet day following a wet day (FWW), were calculated, and their changes were determined statistically. Monotonic and partial trends of the indices were also analyzed. According to the results, the FDD will increase in water year and wet period and autumn in the future, especially for the long term, in the basin dominated by the FDD (75 % in water year). The risks are higher in the western part of the basin, where human activities are intense, as the FDD is higher in this part than other parts especially in summer (90–100 %) in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the long term. So, the length of consecutive dry days in the wet period and water year will increase in the basin, thus increasing the likelihood of droughts. As for the intra-term trends, the FDD increases and the FWW decreases in the water year and seasons in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, contrary to the observation term.
AtıfScopus20WoS19OpenAlex20İncele - Yüksek Lisans TeziAçık Erişim2023Afete müdahale personelinin küresel iklim düzeyi bilgi düzeyi ve tutumları: Erzincan ili örneği
Melis Dilan Akdemir
Afete müdahale personelinin, afet potansiyeli doğuran küresel olaylardaki tutumları toplum için bir rol model olmanın yanında genel tutum açısından da öncü bir gösterge gibidir. Bu gerekçe ile mevcut çalışmada afete müdahale personelinin, Erzincan'da görev yapan afet müdahale personeli üzerinden, küresel iklim değişikliğine yönelik tutumları araştırılmıştır. Araştırmanın evreni Erzincan ilinde görevli AFAD, İtfaiye ve 112 personelidir. Kolayda örnekleme yöntemiyle ulaşılan ve katılımı kabul eden 320 kişiye anket uygulanmıştır. Veriler SPSS yazılımı ile analiz edilmiştir. Ankette geçerlilik ve güvenirlilik kriterleri sağlanmış iki adet ölçek ve altı bağımsız değişken yer almaktadır. Ölçeklerden biri Whirmarsh (2005) tarafından hazırlanan ve iki alt boyutlu (İlgisizlik ve Şüphecilik) ''Belirsizlik'' ölçeğidir. Diğeri ise Mertig (2003) tarafından hazırlanan tek boyutlu ''Çevre Yanlısı'' ölçeğidir. Ölçekler Emrah HİĞDE (2014) tarafından Türkçeye çevrilerek üniversite öğrencilerine uygulanmıştır. Afet müdahale personeli evreninde uygulanan ölçeklere, mevcut çalışmada tekrar geçerlilik ve güvenilirlik analizleri yapılmıştır. Ayrıca ölçeklerin faktör dağılımlarının orijinal ölçekle uyumluluğunu test eden doğrulayıcı faktör analizleri de yapılarak faktör yapıları doğrulanmıştır. Veriler parametrik analiz şartlarını sağladığı için T ve ANOVA testleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca sıklık ve yüzde analizleri de uygulanmıştır. Araştırma sonuçlarına bakıldığında katılımcıların yaşları arttıkça iklim değişikliğine yönelik tutumlarının daha olumsuz olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dikkat çeken bir diğer öneli sonuç ise itfaiye personelinin diğer meslek gruplarına göre küresel iklim değişikliği konusundaki tutumlarının anlamlı bir biçimde olumsuz olmasıdır. İklim değişikliğinin tetiklediği afetlerin artacağı beklenmektedir. Afete müdahale personelinin iklim değişikliği tutumlarını inceleyen mevcut çalışma hem toplumun genel iklim değişikliği tutumunun ne düzeyde olduğuna hem de politika yapıcıların geliştireceği stratejilere katkı sağlayacağı umulmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Afet, İklim, Küresel İklim Değişikliği
- Derleme MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ3Climate change in Türkiye and its impact on oncology nurses
Kaya, Afşin Ahmet; Aydin, Aydanur; Bağcivan, Gülcan
Climate change threatens human life and health by negatively affecting the basic components of health such as clean air, safe drinking water, nutritious food supply, and safe shelter. Türkiye is a country that is largely exposed to climate change with its cosmopolitan location, which is a bridge between Asia and Europe. Due to climate change, serious effects are seen in all sectors from energy to agriculture, from the economy to health. Climate change is defined as the most important global health threat of the next century, and the problems it brings are seen as the most important pressure factor for the life opportunities of future generations. Food and fresh water availability, rising sea levels, abnormal weather events, migration, and diseases are thought to affect human health. A multidisciplinary approach is required to adapt to climate change’s health effects and reduce its negative health effects. In addition, it is predicted that diseases that are about to disappear will re-emerge and become threats. It is thought that as a result of the contamination of food and water resources with the changing ecosystem, some infections will increase and society will face them. Nurses are both affected by climate change and its effects on public health. Nurses who remain in this situation have a great role in providing effective awareness for raising public awareness. In recent years, oncology clinics have not been affected by fire, earthquakes, and pandemics in our country. In this respect, it can be stated that the health service in Turkish oncology clinics is carried out uninterruptedly and by experts in the field. We learned during the pandemic that the whole world is unprepared for the future effects of climate change. In this direction, nurses should think about solutions for the problems related to climate change in the future.
AtıfScopus2WoS2OpenAlex2İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2023Scopus SJRQ2Worry about Climate Change of Outdoor Recreation Participants: A Case Study in Türkiye
Aslan, Ramazan; Köçer, Musab Süleyman; Mizrak, And Sefa
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is considered to be one of the biggest threats to humanity in this century, with severe direct or indirect impacts on people’s lives. Such a significant threat causes serious concern, which can motivate low-level proenvironmental behavior and lead to serious health problems at high levels. Therefore, determining the level of this concern is crucial. Outdoor recreation participants, who are constantly in contact with nature, can closely witness the effects of ACC due to these interactions. Therefore, evaluating their ACC worry is essential. In this study, the aim was to determine the ACC worry levels of outdoor recreation participants. The research data were collected through an online survey from a sample reached through convenience sampling method throughout Türkiye. The data were analyzed using analysis of moment structures (AMOS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The relationship between independent variables and ACC concern was revealed through ordinal logistic regression. The research found that the participants had a high level of concern about ACC, with a score of 3.50. It was also determined that this level of concern was influenced by variables such as the type of outdoor recreation, the duration of participation in outdoor recreation, and exposure to the effects of ACC. Considering that ACC can motivate proenvironmental behaviors, the research suggests that outdoor recreational participants with high levels of concern about ACC should not be ignored in the adaptation process.
AtıfScopus4WoS4OpenAlex5İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2023Scopus SJRQ2Climatic Niche Divergence and Conservatism Promote Speciation in Snake-Eyed Skinks (Sauria: Scincidae): New Insight into the Evolution and Diversification of Ablepharus Species
Vaissi, Somaye; Kurnaz, Muammer; Şahin, Mehmet Kürşat; Hernandez, Axel
The degree to which closely related species conserve or diverge in their niche characteristics may provide insight into evolutionary and diversification processes, as well as some understanding of broad-scale biogeographic patterns. In this study, we used an ensemble of 10 algorithms to predict the distributions of 12 Ablepharus species in geographical (G)-space for the recent time and the future (2081–2100) climate conditions. Niche overlap, equivalency, and similarity tests in environmental (E)-space were used to test niche divergence and conservatism. The consensus model showed that temperature seasonality (n = 6) and annual precipitation (n = 3) were the major factors predicting the distribution of 75% (9 out of 12) of the species. The ensemble models based on ssp585 predict that 83.33% of the species (n = 10) may have contracted their ranges, especially at lower altitudes along their southern margins. They may have also expanded northward during this period. However, in the ssp126, most species’ distribution ranges may remain unchanged despite contractions and expansions. Based on multivariate niche analyses, the distributions of 28 and 11 paired comparisons explored in this study significantly diverged and conserved. We found that closely related species inhabit different habitats and respond to their climatic characteristics, indicating that ecology has a significant influence on speciation.
AtıfScopus12WoS12OpenAlex12İncele
