Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Analysis of the Changes in River Water Quality and Quantity with Innovative Trend Methods
Şan, Murat; Nacar, Sinan; Bayram, Adem; Kankal, Murat
This study aims to investigate trends and changes in water quality (WQ) and quantity parameters under low-medium-high groups and seasonal trends employing innovative methods. The data were collected from three monitoring stations in the Broad River Basin (USA). The data spanning the years 1987–2020, on water temperature (WT), dissolved oxygen (DO), discharge (Q), and electrical conductivity (EC) parameters, were used for analysis. A combination of innovative trend analysis with binary segmentation (ITABS) was proposed for objective group separation for the purpose of group trend analysis, allowing for the capture of changes in both location and shape parameters. Recently proposed innovative polygon trend Wilcoxon significance test (IPTWST) and innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) were also used to examine seasonal trends for the first time, providing a graphical and qualitative analysis of seasonal behavior. The seasonal Mann-Kendall test was also used to compare them. The ITABS method grouped WQ parameters into more than one group, except for the DO parameter. Especially from EC and Q parameters, it is concluded that the trends in groups do not always contribute to the overall trend or at the same rate. Group trends, therefore, should not be ignored for water resources management. According to IPTA and IPTWST, although there is no clear trend in certain seasons, it is evident that seasonal trends exist, and the Q and EC parameters have a more complex structure. The IPTWST method has the advantage of being able to graphically show the inter-seasonal behavior, although it is identical to the seasonal Mann-Kendall method.
- MakaleYalnız künye2024Spatiotemporal analysis of transition probabilities of wet and dry days under SSPs scenarios in the semi-arid Susurluk Basin, Türkiye
Şan, Murat; Nacar, Sinan; Kankal, Murat; Bayram, Adem
Precipitation, especially in regions dominated by the Mediterranean climate, is one of the most critical parameters of the hydrological cycle and the environment affected by climate change. One the one hand, the transition probabilities of wet and dry days in precipitation occurrence are a relatively new topic, on the other hand these are essential in defining the regional climate. For the first time, spatiotemporal variations of transition probabilities of wet and dry days in the Susurluk Basin, northwestern Türkiye, dominated by a semi-arid Mediterranean climate and also having a mountain climate, were analyzed based on the observation (1979–2014) and future terms (2030–2059 as short and 2070–2099 as long), under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. To do this, statistical downscaling was performed for 14 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP6. By applying an ensemble of four high-performing GCMs, four indices for transition probabilities of wet and dry, i.e., a dry day following a dry day (FDD), a wet day following a dry day (FDW), a dry day following a wet day (FWD), and a wet day following a wet day (FWW), were calculated, and their changes were determined statistically. Monotonic and partial trends of the indices were also analyzed. According to the results, the FDD will increase in water year and wet period and autumn in the future, especially for the long term, in the basin dominated by the FDD (75 % in water year). The risks are higher in the western part of the basin, where human activities are intense, as the FDD is higher in this part than other parts especially in summer (90–100 %) in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the long term. So, the length of consecutive dry days in the wet period and water year will increase in the basin, thus increasing the likelihood of droughts. As for the intra-term trends, the FDD increases and the FWW decreases in the water year and seasons in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, contrary to the observation term.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2023Daily precipitation performances of regression-based statistical downscaling models in a basin with mountain and semi-arid climates
Şan, Murat; Nacar, Sinan; Kankal, Murat; Bayram, Adem
The impacts of climate change on current and future water resources are important to study local scale. This study aims to investigate the prediction performances of daily precipitation using five regression-based statistical downscaling models (RBSDMs), for the first time, and the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset in the Susurluk Basin with mountain and semi-arid climates for 1979–2018. In addition, comparisons were also performed with an artificial neural network (ANN). Before achieving the aim, the effects of atmospheric variables, grid resolution, and long-distance grid on precipitation prediction were holistically investigated for the first time. Kling-Gupta efficiency was modified and used for holistic evaluation of statistical moments parameters at precipitation prediction comparison. The standard triangular diagram, quite new in the literature, was also modified and used for graphical evaluation. The results of the study revealed that near grids were more effective on precipitation than single or far grids, and 1.50° × 1.50° resolution showed similar performance to 0.25° × 0.25° resolution. When the polynomial multivariate adaptive regression splines model, which performed slightly higher than ANN, tended to capture skewness and standard deviation values of precipitations and to hit wet/dry occurrence than the other models, all models were quite well able to predict the mean value of precipitations. Therefore, RBSDMs can be used in different basins instead of black-box models. RBSDMs can also be established for mean precipitation values without dry/wet classification in the basin. A certain success was observed in the models; however, it was justified that bias correction was required to capture extreme values in the basin.
- MakaleYalnız künye2011Estimation of the carbon to nitrogen (C:N) ratio in compostable solid waste using artificial neural networks
Bayram, Adem; Kankal, Murat; Ozsahin, Talat Sukru; Saka, Fatih
Organic waste constitutes a majority of all municipal solid waste (MSW), a fact which yields some unfavorable results at open dumps, sanitary landfills, and incineration plants. As part of an integrated solid waste management strategy, composting could be applied to mixed collected MSWs or separately collected leaves, food, and yard wastes. The factor most crucial to successful composting is the carbon to nitrogen (C:N) ratio of the waste. This study employs two predictive models to estimate the C:N ratio of compostable MSW, an artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR). These models are based on 52 solid waste samples taken from the MSW open dumping area in Gümüşhane Province, Turkey. To estimate the C:N ratio, seven predictive variables were adopted. The proportions of food and yard (F&Y), and ash and scoria (A&S) waste; the moisture content (MC), the fixed carbon (FC) content, the total amount of organic matter (TOM), high calorific value (HCV), and pH. Fortytwo of the samples were used for training, and the remaining ten were used to test the models. The average relative error attained by the best ANN was 6.376%, while that attained by the MLR model was 11.002%. The effects of TOM content, F&Y percentage, and A&S percentage on the C:N ratio were investigated by running the ANN model for a range of input variables.
- BildiriYalnız künye2011Environmental problems from the open dump in Gümüşhane Province and investigation of biological recycling for the organic solid wastes
Nas, S. Serkan; Bayram, Adem; Gokcekus, H; Turker, U; LaMoreaux, JW
This paper presents a general overview of current municipal waste management in Gümüşhane Province. Both the drawbacks of present disposal method are discussed and solution proposals are submitted. The solid waste samples, one sample in every week and total fifty two samples in a year, were taken from the municipal solid waste open dumping area during a year, 2004 March-2005 February. Compostable organic parts of the samples, separated from the mixed municipal solid waste, were analyzed in order to determine the suitability of composting for the disposal of municipal solid wastes in Gümüshane. The moisture content, C/N ratio and pH for all samples were determined and evaluated. The values with high moisture content being 78% (74% in spring, 83% in summer, and 78% in autumn and 77% in winter), relatively low C/N ratio being 21.6/1 (22.2/1 in spring, 16.2/1 in summer, 23.7/1 in autumn and 27.5/1 in winter), and low pH being 4.73 (5.50 in spring, 4.25 in summer, 4.45 in autumn and 4.72 in winter) disclose that composting of the organic wastes aren't suitable.
- MakaleYalnız künye2008Municipal solid waste characteristics and management in Gümüşhane, Turkey
Nas, S. Serkan; Bayram, Adem
This paper presents a general overview of the current municipal solid waste (MSW) management in Gümüşhane Province, Turkey. In order to characterize the solid waste stream in the Municipality of Gümüşhane, a long-term study was conducted over a 52-week period between the spring of 2004 and the winter of 2005. In this study, percentage of components and specific weight of the MSW, the composting parameters (moisture content, total organic carbon, total nitrogen and pH), organic matter content, calorific value and the heavy metal concentrations (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, Fe, Mn, Co) of the compostable wastes sorted from the mixed MSW were determined and evaluated. In Gümüşhane, a mean of 70 tons of MSW are generated each day or 1 kg/day/capita. Approximately 4500 kg of the MSW were collected and sorted in a year, and the mean specific weight of these is 308 kg/m3. Approximately 30% of the MSW generated is compostable wastes and the yearly mean moisture content, organic matter content, C/N ratio and pH of these are 78%, 92.1%, 21.6/1 and 4.73, respectively, and approximately 24% of the MSW consists of recyclable materials. The recommended system deals with maximizing recycling and minimizing landfilling of the MSW, and consists of separation at source, collection, sorting, recycling, composting and sanitary landfilling. Heavy metal concentrations of the compostable wastes from the open dump were determined to decrease in the following order: Fe > Mn > Zn > Cr > Cu > Pb > Ni > Cd > Co.
- MakaleYalnız künye2007Heavy metals in compostable wastes: A case study in Gümüş hane, Turkey
Nas, S. Serkan; Bayram, Adem; Bulut, V. Numan; Gündoǧdu, Ali
This paper presents a general overview of the current municipal solid waste management in Gümüşhane Province, Turkey. In the study conducted between March 2004 and February 2005, the composting parameters (moisture content, total organic carbon, total nitrogen and pH), organic matter content and the heavy metal concentrations (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, Fe, Mn, Co) of the green wastes sorted from the mixed municipal solid waste were determined and evaluated. The analytes were determined with a relative standard deviation lower than 6% in all samples. The organic fraction of biological origin made up about 30% of the total amount of the municipal solid waste. Moisture content was 78%, organic matter content was 92.1%, C/N ratio was 21.6/1 and pH was 4.73. Heavy metal concentrations of the green wastes mixed with domestic wastes were found to be higher than the separately collected green wastes. Heavy metal concentrations of the green wastes from the open dump were determined to decrease in the following order: Fe>Mn>Zn>Cr>Cu>Pb>Ni> Cd>Co.