Determination of Future Trends of Sugar in Turkey Through Time Series Analysis

This study aims to reveal the current status of sugar market in Turkey and to provide future predictions for sugar markets. Exponential Correction Method, one of the time series analyses, was used in determining future predictions. Secondary data for time series analysis were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), the websites or databases of the Turkish Sugar Factories Joint Stock Company (TŞFAŞ). Within this context, five-year future predictions regarding sugar markets were developed for beet cultivation area, amount of processed beet, number of sugar beet producers, production amount and yield values, sugar production and consumption, export and import amounts. According to the findings of the study, it is predicted that sugar beet cultivation areas, the amount of processed beet and sugar beet production will increase, the number of sugar beet producers and yield will decrease, and the production, consumption, import and export amount of sugar will increase in the next five years (2022-2027). Predictions regarding the supply-demand balance in sugar suggest that the balance will shift towards supply, and that this shift will stem from an increase in exports, not from an increase in production, and that foreign-source dependency for sugar will increase. Reduction of input costs, elimination of irregularities in prices through various factors, improvement of support to increase the competition of Turkseker with private companies, and minimization of the quota application in sugar beet should be ensured to reduce foreign-source dependency in sugar production.