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• MakaleYalnız künye2025/r/gumushane/19689
  Türkiye’de İkincil Enerji Kaynağı Olan Elektrik Tüketimi ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Analiz

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Bir ülkenin ekonomik büyümesi ve sanayileşmesi için enerji önemli bir girdi olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bir ülkede enerji üretimi yetersiz ve tüketimi fazla ise enerji ithalatına gereksinim duyulacaktır. Enerji ithalatının artması ülke içerisinde cari açığa neden olacağından bu durum ekonomik büyümeye olumsuz yansıyacaktır. Enerji kaynaklarının kıt oluşu ve kaynakların yanlış kullanımı gibi nedenlerden dolayı devletler yeni arayışlar içerisine girmiştir. Bu noktada ortaya konulan enerji politikalarının düşük fiyatlarla, çevre kirliliğine neden olmadan insanların enerji ihtiyaçlarını kesintisiz, etkin ve verimli şekilde karşılaması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışma ile ikincil enerji kaynağı olan elektrik tüketimi değişkenlerinin büyüme üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Konunun teorik kısmı araştırıldıktan sonra özelde Türkiye için ampirik bir uygulama gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda mesken, sanayi, tarımsal faaliyetler, aydınlatma, ticaret ve kamu hizmetleri değişkenlerinin enerji tüketimlerini de dikkate alan modeller oluşturulmuştur. Bu kapsamda 1990-2021 yıllarına ait yıllık zaman serisi verilerinden yola çıkılmıştır. Yapılan analizler neticesinde EKK test sonuçlarına göre, elektrik enerjisi tüketimini temsil eden bağımsız değişkenlerden hiçbirinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Yapılan Granger Nedensellik test sonucuna göre ise ekonomik büyümenin mesken elektrik tüketiminin nedeni olduğu saptanmıştır. Geriye kalan tüm değişkenler ile ekonomik büyüme arasında istatistiksel açıdan bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamıştır. Tüm bu sonuçlardan hareketle Türkiye’nin elektrik enerjisi tüketiminde ithal kaynaklar kullanmak yerine büyük potansiyel arz eden güneş, rüzgâr ve su gibi yenilebilir enerji kaynaklarına yönelmesi gerekmektedir. İktisadi büyümenin nedeni elektrik tüketimi olduğuna göre meskenlerde uygulanacak enerji politikaları hem ekonomik sorunlara çözüm olacak hem de ekonomik büyümenin en destekleyici unsuru olacaktır.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2025/r/gumushane/19554
  Global variables affecting agricultural product and food prices in Türkiye: An analysis with Structural Vector Error Correction Model

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Purpose: The aim of this study is to identify the factors contributing to the price increases observed in food products. In this study, the global determinants of prices in agricultural and food products and their effects on the Turkish economy were addressed. The aim of the study was to identify the factors causing price increases in food products. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the study, the dependent variables included in the model were the CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages, the CPI for unprocessed food, and the PPI for agricultural products, while the independent variables were the exchange rate (average of USD and Euro), the agricultural products export index, the agricultural products import index, Brent crude oil prices, and the international food price index. The short- and long-term causal relationships among these variables were examined through the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) cointegration test and the Granger causality test, based on monthly data for the period 2003:01–2025:01. Findings: According to the research findings, among the variables affecting agricultural and food prices in Turkey were the international food price index, Brent crude oil prices, and the agricultural products export index. In the models where the CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages and the CPI for unprocessed food were the dependent variables, it was determined that shocks originating from the independent variables converge to equilibrium in the long term. The findings reveal that in Turkey, the exchange rate and the agricultural products export index are not causal factors for the CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages, nor for the CPI for unprocessed food. In contrast, Brent crude oil prices and the international food price index were identified as causal factors. Additionally, no long-term relationship was found between the PPI for agricultural products and the independent variables, and it was determined that the exchange rate, agricultural products export index, Brent crude oil prices, and the international food price index were not causal factors for the PPI for agricultural products. Originality/Value: Although similar studies exist for Turkey, the distinguishing feature of this research is that it is the first to simultaneously analyze the CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages, the CPI for unprocessed food, and the PPI for agricultural products together with the independent variables of exchange rate, agricultural products export index, agricultural products import index, Brent crude oil prices, and the international food price index.

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• MakaleYayıncıda açık erişim2025/r/gumushane/14323
  An Analysis on The Relationship of Organic Honey Production and The Number of Producers with Growth, Employment, and Agricultural Employment in Türkiye; [Türkiye’de Organik Bal Üretimi ve Üretici Sayısı ile Büyüme, İstihdam ve Tarımsal İstihdam Arasındaki İlişkinin Tespitine Yönelik Bir Analiz]

  Merdan, Kurtuluş

  The growing world population has driven humanity to produce more food, potentially leading to the neglect of quality and safety in food production. Evolving life conditions and technological progress have altered the consciousness level of humanity, bringing about new demands in some communities due to high income. Organic beekeeping has developed within this structure and tends to flourish as a model in Türkiye. Organic beekeeping has increased the income from beekeeping. It is practiced in natural unspoiled areas with no conventional feeding and chemical pesticides and requires supervising all processes through inspection and certification. Besides organic honey, the most common organic beekeeping product, organic bee products include bee pollen, propolis, royal jelly, beeswax, and bee venom. This study presents the economic analysis of organic honey production volume in Türkiye. For this purpose, the short and long-term relationships of organic honey production and the number of producers with economic growth, employment, and agricultural employment were analyzed. In addition, organic honey production and the number of organic honey producers were examined as driving forces for growth, employment, and agricultural employment. In this context, annual time series data between 2004 and 2022 were used as the sample. According to the analysis, organic honey production, an independent variable, had no long-term relationship with employment and agricultural employment variables, whereas it had a long-term relationship with the growth variable. The number of organic honey producers, another independent variable, was found to have no long-run relationship with the employment variable; however, it had a long-term relationship with the growth and agricultural employment variables. The findings of the study indicated that organic honey production did not drive growth, employment, or agricultural employment. On the other hand, the number of organic honey producers led to growth, yet not to employment or agricultural employment.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2025/r/gumushane/11583
  Analysis of factors affecting the import demand for wheat and corn in Türkiye using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method; [Türkiye’de buğday ve mısır ithalat talebini etkileyen faktörlerin Görünüşte İlişkisiz Regresyon Yöntemine göre analizi]

  Merdan, Kurtuluş; Çomakli, Şafak Ertan

  Objective: In this study, it is aimed to analyze the determining factors on the import demand for wheat and corn, which have an important place in Türkiye's grain imports, with the "Apparently Unrelated Regressions" model. Material and Methods: The data set used in this study consists of annual data covering the years 2006-2021. Stata program was used to analyze the data used in the study. Since Stata or Eviews programs do not provide the Standardized Beta (β) coefficient, statistical analyzes were performed using the formula in Microsoft Excel (β=B*SSXi / SSY). Results: Only the one-year delayed value of wheat imports, which is one of the explanatory variables in the wheat import model, was found to be significant, according to the study's findings. In terms of factors influencing corn import demand, similar results were obtained. Only total corn consumption was found to be statistically noteworthy among the explanatory variables in the corn import model. Conclusion: Based on these findings, wheat imports are influenced by changes in wheat imports from a year ago, while corn imports are influenced by changes in total corn consumption. Based on Türkiye's current structure and the findings obtained, it is understood that the country may continue to maintain its position as an importer of wheat and corn in the future.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/gumushane/20062
  Turkey's Agricultural Sector: Past, Present and Future of Agriculture

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Turkey has been an important agricultural country both historically and in the present day. Turkey, which has a 0.8% share of the world's agricultural lands, produces more than 1.29% of the global production, and it both affects and is affected by the changing technology. Considering the twenty years of change and potential of Turkish agriculture, being a follower of technological trends was able to Turkish agriculture even stronger. Turkey is among the actors that will affect the global agriculture sector with its annual production capacity of approximately 50 billion dollars, and there is a possibility of increasing this production capacity to 100 billion dollars in the coming years. The past, present and future of the Turkish agricultural sector are discussed in this study. In this context, the evaluation of Turkish agriculture from past to present has been made and then the future of agriculture has been analyzed. To accomplish this, we utilized TÜİK data from 2000 to 2022, applying both the ARIMA model from time series analysis and the Double Exponential Smoothing Method. Within the scope of the findings, it is expected that the agricultural production value will be 42,255,769,000 $, the number of employed people is 4,829, the share of agricultural exports in total exports will be 3.06% , the share of agricultural imports in total imports will be 6.32% and the share of agriculture in GDP will be forecasted 5.04% in 2030.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/gumushane/20057
  The effects of agricultural subsidies and agricultural employment on economic growth: a time series analysis

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of agricultural subsidies and agricultural employment on economic growth in Türkiye by utilizing annual data for the period 2000-2022. Benefiting from empirical analysis, the variables in the study were primarily tested with the unit root test. The differences of the variables for which unit roots were determined were purified from unit roots as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test suggests. Appropriate lag test was applied to the series and then the causality relationship between economic growth, agricultural employment rate and agricultural support amount was analyzed according to the results of cointegration, error-corrected VAR estimation, and Granger causality test. Based on the results of the analysis, agricultural subsidies do not have a significant effect on economic growth or economic growth on agricultural subsidies, whereas agricultural employment has a bidirectional and positive effect on economic growth. Causality findings indicate no causality between agricultural subsidies and economic growth. A bidirectional and positive economic growth as a result of agricultural employment was determined, and the existence of a causality relationship between the two variables has been demonstrated. In conclusion, it has been found that agricultural subsidies provided for economic growth in Türkiye have not yielded effective results, whereas agricultural employment provided positive reflections. Therefore, taking measures for a controlled transition from the agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors over time, thus increasing the quality and adaptability of the workforce in the sector, and recording employment through incentives will make a great contribution to the solution of the problem.

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• MakaleYalnız künye2024/r/gumushane/20045
  Türkiye'de Fındık İhracat Talebine Etki Eden Faktörlerin ARIMA Modeli ile Tahmin Edilmesi

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Bu çalışma ile dünya fındık ithalatı, ihracatı, birim fiyatı ve Türkiye fındık ihracat birim fiyatlarının 2001 -2021 yılları arasında Türkiye fındık ihracat talebine etkisi ve Türkiye fındık ihracatının geleceği noktasında öngörülerde bulunmak amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada gelecekteki eğilimleri tahmin etmek için zaman serisi verilerini kullanan Regresyon ve ARIMA modeline başvurulmuştur. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular kapsamında dünya fındık ithalat miktarı, dünya fındık ihracat birim fiyatı, Türkiye fındık ihracat birim fiyatlarının Türkiye fındık ihracatı belirleyicileri olmadığı; dünya fındık ihracat miktarının Türkiye fındık ihracat miktarı üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonunda ARIMA modeli kapsamında 2022-2026 yılları arası fındık ihracat miktarının artacağı öngörülmektedir. Türkiye'nin fındık üretim ve ihracatında liderliğini sürdürebilmesi; fiyat dalgalanmalarının ve yanlış fiyat beklentilerinin yol açabileceği spekülasyonların önüne geçmesi, Türkiye’nin yeni pazar arayışına girmesi, üretimde çeşitlilik sağlaması, üründe kaliteyi artırması, iç tüketimi de artırma yönünde Ar-Ge çalışmaları gerçekleştirmesi, fındıkta markalaşmaya çalışması ve lisanslı depoculuk sistemini de etkin bir şekilde işletmesi ile mümkündür.

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  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/gumushane/20024
  Mevduat bankalarının kullandırdıkları tarımsal kredilerin tarımsal üretime etkisi: Karadeniz Bölgesi’ne yönelik bir panel veri analizi

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Mevduat bankalarının kullandırdıkları tarımsal kredilerin tarımsal üretim üzerindeki etkisi tarım ekonomisi açısından büyük önem arz etmektedir. Fakat kullanılan kredilerin istenen amaçları gerçekleştirip gerçekleştirmediği karar alıcılar ve politika yapıcılar tarafından merak edilen bir konu olmuştur. Bu çalışmada; Türkiye’de mevduat bankalarının Karadeniz Bölgesi illerinde kullandırdıkları tarımsal kredilerin tarımsal üretime etkisi panel veri analiziyle araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada 2006-2022 dönemi mevduat bankalarının kullandırdıkları krediler ölçek alınmıştır. Çalışma sonunda mevduat bankalarının Karadeniz Bölgesi’nde kullandırdığı tarımsal kredilerin Karadeniz Bölgesinde tarımsal üretim üzerinde pozitif yönlü ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Tarıma daha fazla destek sağlama noktasında kamu bankalarının yanı sıra özel ve yabancı sermayeli bankaların da üreticilerin ihtiyaçları doğrultusunda kredi imkanlarını çeşitlendirmesi, tarımsal kredilerin önündeki birtakım engellerin kaldırılması ve bu kredilerin daha verimli sahalarda değerlendirilmesi, tarım sektörünün ekonomi içerisindeki öneminin tam olarak kavranması ve değişim sürecinde tarım sektörüne biçilecek rolün iyi analiz edilmesi büyük önem arz etmektedir.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/gumushane/20002
  A Study on The Relationship Between Organic Agriculture and Agricultural Employment in Türkiye

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Organic agriculture is a sustainable agricultural system with different principles that is carried out within the scope of certain rules. Due to the substitution of organic inputs with chemical inputs, getting the products ready for sale, weed control, and similar operations by hand, enterprises engaged in organic farming require a larger labor force. All these jobs increase employment opportunities in rural areas and allow small family businesses to continue production. In this study, it has been tried to reveal the relationship between organic agriculture and agricultural employment with the help of an econometric model and to determine the effect of organic agriculture on employment. The study analyzed a 17-year time series of data spanning from 2004 to 2021 to identify the factors influencing agricultural employment, taking into account various aspects of organic agriculture, including the number of organic agricultural products, the count of farmers engaged in organic agriculture, the area dedicated to organic agricultural production, the organic wild collection area, the total area allocated for organic agricultural production, the quantity of organic agricultural production, the number of entrepreneurs involved in organic agriculture, the unit price of subsidy for organic agriculture, and the total amount of subsidy provided to organic agriculture. Based on the results of the regression analysis, it was determined that the number of organic products does not have a significant effect on agricultural employment. In addition, it was found that the wild harvesting area is positively significant for agricultural employment and that the total production area of organic agriculture and the amount of subsidy are negatively significant. The results of the research reveal that a 1% increase in the wild harvesting area related to organic agriculture would lead to an increase of more than 0.28% in the agricultural employment rate, while a 1% increase in the total production area and the amount of subsidy would lead to a decrease of 0.40% and 0.44% in the agricultural employment rate, respectively.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/gumushane/16502
  Relationship between Organic Agriculture And GDP Per Capita, Economic Growth, and Unemployment: Panel Data Analysis

  Merdan, Kurtulus

  The increase in the world population recently has also increased the need for agricultural products. The need for food products has made it necessary to obtain more products per unit area. At this point, producers have focussed on the use of hormones, chemicals, and fertilisers to increase productivity and meet the demand for cheap food, and the process that increases production in the short term has become a threat to human health in the long term. Over time, the negative effects of chemicals on humans and the environment were observed, forcing producers to seek new methods. This process has led to independent studies on organic agriculture in every country. In this study, the effects of organic agriculture on some economic variables were revealed. In this context, the analyses focus now the variables of area allocated to organic agriculture on a regional basis, production amount and number of producers affected GDP per capita, economic growth, and unemployment in Turkey between 2003 and 2021. The scientific dimension of the study was prepared using data obtained from domestic and foreign literature and the electronic database of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock. In this study, in which panel data analysis was used, EViews 12 programme was employed. For the variables used in the study, the geographical region cross-section dependence was determined, and the stationarity of the series was examined with the CIPS (Cross-Sectionally Augmented IPS) unit root test. As a result of the study, it was determined that organic production amount, number of organic farmers, and organic production area did not have a significant effect on economic growth and unemployment. Organic production area and the number of organic farmers had a positive and significant effect on GDP per capita, but the amount of organic production did not have a significant relationship

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