Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları

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Araştırmacılar(3)

• Çaka, Merve Özden
• Merdan, Kurtuluş
• Zıvalıoğlu, Tuna

• MakaleYalnız künye2025/r/gumushane/10646
  Revealing the environmental influences of energy, transport, and pollution taxes on different transportation modes

  Artan, Seyfettin; Pata, Ugur Korkut; Hayaloglu, Pinar; Cakir, Mehmet Ali; Recepoglu, Mursit; Cay Cakir, Sumeyra

  The need for transportation is increasing with the effect of globalization in the developing economic system. The transportation sector, which is essential for economic development, may pose some threats to a sustainable environment. Although European countries have achieved various successes in reducing carbon emissions, they are struggling to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from transportation. To overcome this difficulty, European countries are using various policy instruments such as environmental taxes. In this context, this study investigated the impact of disaggregated environmental taxes (pollution, energy, and transport), structural change, and institutional quality on transport-related carbon emissions (water, air, and road transport) in 24 European countries over the period 2008-2022. To this end, the study uses the novel half-panel jackknife estimation and the bias-corrected method of moments. The results indicate that there is no long-term relationship between environmental taxes and water transportation-related CO2 emissions. In contrast, structural changes and pollution taxes are effective in reducing road and air transport-related CO2 emissions. These results suggest that European countries should focus on reducing CO2 emissions through effective pollution taxes and encourage carbon taxes instead of energy and transport taxes, thereby supporting the European Green Deal's goal of becoming the first climate-neutral continent.

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• MakaleYalnız künye2025/r/gumushane/19689
  Türkiye’de İkincil Enerji Kaynağı Olan Elektrik Tüketimi ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Analiz

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Bir ülkenin ekonomik büyümesi ve sanayileşmesi için enerji önemli bir girdi olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bir ülkede enerji üretimi yetersiz ve tüketimi fazla ise enerji ithalatına gereksinim duyulacaktır. Enerji ithalatının artması ülke içerisinde cari açığa neden olacağından bu durum ekonomik büyümeye olumsuz yansıyacaktır. Enerji kaynaklarının kıt oluşu ve kaynakların yanlış kullanımı gibi nedenlerden dolayı devletler yeni arayışlar içerisine girmiştir. Bu noktada ortaya konulan enerji politikalarının düşük fiyatlarla, çevre kirliliğine neden olmadan insanların enerji ihtiyaçlarını kesintisiz, etkin ve verimli şekilde karşılaması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışma ile ikincil enerji kaynağı olan elektrik tüketimi değişkenlerinin büyüme üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Konunun teorik kısmı araştırıldıktan sonra özelde Türkiye için ampirik bir uygulama gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda mesken, sanayi, tarımsal faaliyetler, aydınlatma, ticaret ve kamu hizmetleri değişkenlerinin enerji tüketimlerini de dikkate alan modeller oluşturulmuştur. Bu kapsamda 1990-2021 yıllarına ait yıllık zaman serisi verilerinden yola çıkılmıştır. Yapılan analizler neticesinde EKK test sonuçlarına göre, elektrik enerjisi tüketimini temsil eden bağımsız değişkenlerden hiçbirinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Yapılan Granger Nedensellik test sonucuna göre ise ekonomik büyümenin mesken elektrik tüketiminin nedeni olduğu saptanmıştır. Geriye kalan tüm değişkenler ile ekonomik büyüme arasında istatistiksel açıdan bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamıştır. Tüm bu sonuçlardan hareketle Türkiye’nin elektrik enerjisi tüketiminde ithal kaynaklar kullanmak yerine büyük potansiyel arz eden güneş, rüzgâr ve su gibi yenilebilir enerji kaynaklarına yönelmesi gerekmektedir. İktisadi büyümenin nedeni elektrik tüketimi olduğuna göre meskenlerde uygulanacak enerji politikaları hem ekonomik sorunlara çözüm olacak hem de ekonomik büyümenin en destekleyici unsuru olacaktır.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2025/r/gumushane/19554
  Global variables affecting agricultural product and food prices in Türkiye: An analysis with Structural Vector Error Correction Model

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Purpose: The aim of this study is to identify the factors contributing to the price increases observed in food products. In this study, the global determinants of prices in agricultural and food products and their effects on the Turkish economy were addressed. The aim of the study was to identify the factors causing price increases in food products. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the study, the dependent variables included in the model were the CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages, the CPI for unprocessed food, and the PPI for agricultural products, while the independent variables were the exchange rate (average of USD and Euro), the agricultural products export index, the agricultural products import index, Brent crude oil prices, and the international food price index. The short- and long-term causal relationships among these variables were examined through the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) cointegration test and the Granger causality test, based on monthly data for the period 2003:01–2025:01. Findings: According to the research findings, among the variables affecting agricultural and food prices in Turkey were the international food price index, Brent crude oil prices, and the agricultural products export index. In the models where the CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages and the CPI for unprocessed food were the dependent variables, it was determined that shocks originating from the independent variables converge to equilibrium in the long term. The findings reveal that in Turkey, the exchange rate and the agricultural products export index are not causal factors for the CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages, nor for the CPI for unprocessed food. In contrast, Brent crude oil prices and the international food price index were identified as causal factors. Additionally, no long-term relationship was found between the PPI for agricultural products and the independent variables, and it was determined that the exchange rate, agricultural products export index, Brent crude oil prices, and the international food price index were not causal factors for the PPI for agricultural products. Originality/Value: Although similar studies exist for Turkey, the distinguishing feature of this research is that it is the first to simultaneously analyze the CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages, the CPI for unprocessed food, and the PPI for agricultural products together with the independent variables of exchange rate, agricultural products export index, agricultural products import index, Brent crude oil prices, and the international food price index.

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• MakaleYalnız künye2025/r/gumushane/11710
  Ecological footprint components and agricultural productivity: Insights from MENA countries

  Recepoğlu, Mürşit; Hayaloğlu, Pınar; Cakir, Sümeyra Cay; Artan, Seyfettin; Cakir, Mehmet Ali

  The surge in the global population over the past century has highlighted the importance of agricultural production, leading to many studies to boost productivity. Unlike previous studies that primarily explore agricultural productivity growth, this study investigates how the subcomponents of the ecological footprint affect agricultural productivity in MENA countries between 1992 and 2021, identifying which types of environmental pollution have the most significant impact. Driscoll and Kraay (1998) method results show that ecological footprint has a major negative impact on agricultural productivity. Similarly, all ecological footprint components have a negative impact on agricultural productivity. The forest footprint has the highest coefficient magnitude, followed by crop land footprint, carbon footprint, fishing grounds footprint and grazing land footprint. The results have been tested for robustness using the Half-Panel Jackknife test to avoid biased results, and parallel results have been obtained. Finally, the causality between agricultural productivity and explanatory variables has been tested using Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test. The findings suggest that policymakers may find it more effective to eliminate pollution rather than using additional resources to increase agricultural productivity. This approach allows for the reallocation of resources used in agricultural production to other areas.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/gumushane/10312
  Does structural change matter for sustainable development in newly industrialized countries? Fresh evidence from a new sustainability indicator

  Artan, Seyfettin; Erdogan, Sinan; Recepoglu, Muersit; Çakir, Suemeyra cay; Hayaloglu, Pinar; Çakir, Mehmet Ali

  The economic gap between developed and developing economies has been diminishing due to the recent rapid economic growth performance of developing economies. While achieving this swift growth level, developing economies have structurally transformed their economies. However, the impact of this structural change on environmental sustainability remains unclear. Therefore, this study focuses on the impacts of structural change, energy structure, and economic growth on the load capacity factor, a comprehensive sustainability indicator, in newly industrialized countries during 2000-2020. To this end, second-generation panel data techniques, which account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, are used to provide more robust and reliable estimates. The results show that economic growth, structural change, and fossil energy utilization decrease the load capacity factor while renewable energy utilization increases it. These findings underscore the need for energy efficiency and resource-conscious policies that align with environmental sustainability while promoting economic growth, highlighting their crucial role in the future of sustainable development.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/gumushane/20062
  Turkey's Agricultural Sector: Past, Present and Future of Agriculture

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Turkey has been an important agricultural country both historically and in the present day. Turkey, which has a 0.8% share of the world's agricultural lands, produces more than 1.29% of the global production, and it both affects and is affected by the changing technology. Considering the twenty years of change and potential of Turkish agriculture, being a follower of technological trends was able to Turkish agriculture even stronger. Turkey is among the actors that will affect the global agriculture sector with its annual production capacity of approximately 50 billion dollars, and there is a possibility of increasing this production capacity to 100 billion dollars in the coming years. The past, present and future of the Turkish agricultural sector are discussed in this study. In this context, the evaluation of Turkish agriculture from past to present has been made and then the future of agriculture has been analyzed. To accomplish this, we utilized TÜİK data from 2000 to 2022, applying both the ARIMA model from time series analysis and the Double Exponential Smoothing Method. Within the scope of the findings, it is expected that the agricultural production value will be 42,255,769,000 $, the number of employed people is 4,829, the share of agricultural exports in total exports will be 3.06% , the share of agricultural imports in total imports will be 6.32% and the share of agriculture in GDP will be forecasted 5.04% in 2030.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/gumushane/20057
  The effects of agricultural subsidies and agricultural employment on economic growth: a time series analysis

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of agricultural subsidies and agricultural employment on economic growth in Türkiye by utilizing annual data for the period 2000-2022. Benefiting from empirical analysis, the variables in the study were primarily tested with the unit root test. The differences of the variables for which unit roots were determined were purified from unit roots as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test suggests. Appropriate lag test was applied to the series and then the causality relationship between economic growth, agricultural employment rate and agricultural support amount was analyzed according to the results of cointegration, error-corrected VAR estimation, and Granger causality test. Based on the results of the analysis, agricultural subsidies do not have a significant effect on economic growth or economic growth on agricultural subsidies, whereas agricultural employment has a bidirectional and positive effect on economic growth. Causality findings indicate no causality between agricultural subsidies and economic growth. A bidirectional and positive economic growth as a result of agricultural employment was determined, and the existence of a causality relationship between the two variables has been demonstrated. In conclusion, it has been found that agricultural subsidies provided for economic growth in Türkiye have not yielded effective results, whereas agricultural employment provided positive reflections. Therefore, taking measures for a controlled transition from the agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors over time, thus increasing the quality and adaptability of the workforce in the sector, and recording employment through incentives will make a great contribution to the solution of the problem.

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• MakaleYalnız künye2024/r/gumushane/20045
  Türkiye'de Fındık İhracat Talebine Etki Eden Faktörlerin ARIMA Modeli ile Tahmin Edilmesi

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Bu çalışma ile dünya fındık ithalatı, ihracatı, birim fiyatı ve Türkiye fındık ihracat birim fiyatlarının 2001 -2021 yılları arasında Türkiye fındık ihracat talebine etkisi ve Türkiye fındık ihracatının geleceği noktasında öngörülerde bulunmak amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada gelecekteki eğilimleri tahmin etmek için zaman serisi verilerini kullanan Regresyon ve ARIMA modeline başvurulmuştur. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular kapsamında dünya fındık ithalat miktarı, dünya fındık ihracat birim fiyatı, Türkiye fındık ihracat birim fiyatlarının Türkiye fındık ihracatı belirleyicileri olmadığı; dünya fındık ihracat miktarının Türkiye fındık ihracat miktarı üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonunda ARIMA modeli kapsamında 2022-2026 yılları arası fındık ihracat miktarının artacağı öngörülmektedir. Türkiye'nin fındık üretim ve ihracatında liderliğini sürdürebilmesi; fiyat dalgalanmalarının ve yanlış fiyat beklentilerinin yol açabileceği spekülasyonların önüne geçmesi, Türkiye’nin yeni pazar arayışına girmesi, üretimde çeşitlilik sağlaması, üründe kaliteyi artırması, iç tüketimi de artırma yönünde Ar-Ge çalışmaları gerçekleştirmesi, fındıkta markalaşmaya çalışması ve lisanslı depoculuk sistemini de etkin bir şekilde işletmesi ile mümkündür.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/gumushane/20024
  Mevduat bankalarının kullandırdıkları tarımsal kredilerin tarımsal üretime etkisi: Karadeniz Bölgesi’ne yönelik bir panel veri analizi

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Mevduat bankalarının kullandırdıkları tarımsal kredilerin tarımsal üretim üzerindeki etkisi tarım ekonomisi açısından büyük önem arz etmektedir. Fakat kullanılan kredilerin istenen amaçları gerçekleştirip gerçekleştirmediği karar alıcılar ve politika yapıcılar tarafından merak edilen bir konu olmuştur. Bu çalışmada; Türkiye’de mevduat bankalarının Karadeniz Bölgesi illerinde kullandırdıkları tarımsal kredilerin tarımsal üretime etkisi panel veri analiziyle araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada 2006-2022 dönemi mevduat bankalarının kullandırdıkları krediler ölçek alınmıştır. Çalışma sonunda mevduat bankalarının Karadeniz Bölgesi’nde kullandırdığı tarımsal kredilerin Karadeniz Bölgesinde tarımsal üretim üzerinde pozitif yönlü ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Tarıma daha fazla destek sağlama noktasında kamu bankalarının yanı sıra özel ve yabancı sermayeli bankaların da üreticilerin ihtiyaçları doğrultusunda kredi imkanlarını çeşitlendirmesi, tarımsal kredilerin önündeki birtakım engellerin kaldırılması ve bu kredilerin daha verimli sahalarda değerlendirilmesi, tarım sektörünün ekonomi içerisindeki öneminin tam olarak kavranması ve değişim sürecinde tarım sektörüne biçilecek rolün iyi analiz edilmesi büyük önem arz etmektedir.

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• MakaleAçık Erişim2024/r/gumushane/20002
  A Study on The Relationship Between Organic Agriculture and Agricultural Employment in Türkiye

  Merddan, Kurtuluş

  Organic agriculture is a sustainable agricultural system with different principles that is carried out within the scope of certain rules. Due to the substitution of organic inputs with chemical inputs, getting the products ready for sale, weed control, and similar operations by hand, enterprises engaged in organic farming require a larger labor force. All these jobs increase employment opportunities in rural areas and allow small family businesses to continue production. In this study, it has been tried to reveal the relationship between organic agriculture and agricultural employment with the help of an econometric model and to determine the effect of organic agriculture on employment. The study analyzed a 17-year time series of data spanning from 2004 to 2021 to identify the factors influencing agricultural employment, taking into account various aspects of organic agriculture, including the number of organic agricultural products, the count of farmers engaged in organic agriculture, the area dedicated to organic agricultural production, the organic wild collection area, the total area allocated for organic agricultural production, the quantity of organic agricultural production, the number of entrepreneurs involved in organic agriculture, the unit price of subsidy for organic agriculture, and the total amount of subsidy provided to organic agriculture. Based on the results of the regression analysis, it was determined that the number of organic products does not have a significant effect on agricultural employment. In addition, it was found that the wild harvesting area is positively significant for agricultural employment and that the total production area of organic agriculture and the amount of subsidy are negatively significant. The results of the research reveal that a 1% increase in the wild harvesting area related to organic agriculture would lead to an increase of more than 0.28% in the agricultural employment rate, while a 1% increase in the total production area and the amount of subsidy would lead to a decrease of 0.40% and 0.44% in the agricultural employment rate, respectively.

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