Turkey's Agricultural Sector: Past, Present and Future of Agriculture

Turkey has been an important agricultural country both historically and in the present day. Turkey, which has a 0.8% share of the world's agricultural lands, produces more than 1.29% of the global production, and it both affects and is affected by the changing technology. Considering the twenty years of change and potential of Turkish agriculture, being a follower of technological trends was able to Turkish agriculture even stronger. Turkey is among the actors that will affect the global agriculture sector with its annual production capacity of approximately 50 billion dollars, and there is a possibility of increasing this production capacity to 100 billion dollars in the coming years. The past, present and future of the Turkish agricultural sector are discussed in this study. In this context, the evaluation of Turkish agriculture from past to present has been made and then the future of agriculture has been analyzed. To accomplish this, we utilized TÜİK data from 2000 to 2022, applying both the ARIMA model from time series analysis and the Double Exponential Smoothing Method. Within the scope of the findings, it is expected that the agricultural production value will be 42,255,769,000 $, the number of employed people is 4,829, the share of agricultural exports in total exports will be 3.06% , the share of agricultural imports in total imports will be 6.32% and the share of agriculture in GDP will be forecasted 5.04% in 2030.