Economic Crises, Social Protection Policies and the Transformation of Family Structures in the European Union: Panel Data Analysis

This study investigates the impact of economic crises on the transformation of family structures in European Union (EU) countries through a panel data analysis approach. The divorce rate is used as the dependent variable, while the unemployment rate, real GDP per capita, and social protection expenditures are treated as independent variables. The analysis is based on a balanced panel dataset covering 27 EU member states over the period 1995 to 2022. The study applies several econometric tests including cross-sectional dependence, slope homogeneity, panel unit root, panel cointegration, and long-run estimations (FMOLS, DOLS, OLS). Additionally, panel Granger causality tests are conducted to examine the directionality of relationships between variables. Empirical findings suggest that an increase in unemployment significantly raises divorce rates, while higher social protection spending reduces them. Real GDP per capita is also found to have a statistically significant and positive effect on divorce. The causality results reveal both bidirectional and unidirectional relationships across variables. These outcomes imply that economic instability tends to weaken family cohesion, whereas well-designed social welfare policies act as a stabilizing force. Accordingly, the study emphasizes the critical importance of strengthening social protection systems and adopting employment-centered macroeconomic strategies to ensure the sustainability of family structures within the EU.