Investigation of the relationship between investor sentiment and systemic risk: An example of the Turkish banking sector

The institutions that suffer the most during any crisis or under financial instability are also the ones that contribute the most to the spread and growth of the crisis. As a matter of fact, the 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis revealed the important role of systemic risks in the crisis. In particular, instability in financial institutions and their increasing systemic risks can negatively affect the entire economy and the global system. In this research, the relationship between investor sentiment and systemic risks of the Turkish banking sector was examined. For this purpose, the longterm relationship between the variables was analyzed using the co-integration tests of Kao, Pedroni, Fisher (Johansen), and Westerlund. Co-integration tests have shown that systemic risks and investor sentiment are co-integrated in the long term. In the study, long-term elasticities were examined using dynamic least squares, panel dynamic least squares, and fully modified least squares estimators. The results have shown that systemic risk increases in the long term negatively affect investor sentiment. According to Granger causality test results, there is one-way causality from banking sector systemic risks to investor sentiment. Various political inferences can be made through the findings of this research. Investor sentiment can be used as an important warning system for predicting risks and financial instability toward the Turkish banking sector. Policymakers should take into account investor sentiment when monitoring the stability of the market and implementing policies. Bank managers should take into account investor sentiment in their decisions and projects and avoid high risk-taking behaviors, especially during periods of low investor sentiment.