Climate Change Impacts on Worldwide Cotton Productivity and Agricultural Income: Physiological, Econometric, and Precision Agriculture Perspectives

Climate change is expected to affect all sectors of the global economy, with agriculture being particularly vulnerable due to its dependence on temperature and precipitation. Cotton is especially sensitive to these changes as its productivity relies on suitable thermal conditions, water availability, and stable reproductive development. This study investigates the effects of climate change on cotton productivity and agricultural income in seven major cotton-producing countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, India, Pakistan, Türkiye, and the United States, over the period 1971-2023. Long-run relationships were examined using the Westerlund cointegration test, country-specific effects were estimated with the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator and verified using Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach, while short-run dynamics were assessed through the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test. Results reveal significant long-run relationships between climate variables, cotton productivity, and agricultural income, although the magnitude and direction of these effects vary across countries. In contrast, short-run effects appear limited and heterogeneous. To strengthen the interpretation of the econometric findings, the results are compared with experimental evidence on cotton heat stress and physiological responses. Together, the evidence indicates that climate change influences cotton productivity mainly through temperature-sensitive processes such as photosynthesis, reproductive development, and fiber formation, underscoring the need for country-specific adaptation strategies and climate-resilient agricultural policies.