⁠Fertility, family structure, and female labor force participation: evidence from Southern Europe and Türkiye

This study investigates how fertility, family structures, and institutional environments shape women’s labor force participation in Southern Europe (Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal) and Türkiye. Using balanced panel data from 2015 to 2022 and fixed effects models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, the analysis identifies a negative relationship between fertility and female employment, though only at marginal levels of statistical significance. Robustness checks using Ridge regression and principal component analysis confirm this finding across alternative specifications. Significant country-level fixed effects reveal considerable heterogeneity, with Portugal and Spain exhibiting higher baseline participation rates and Türkiye recording notably lower values. While the empirical model does not directly measure institutional support, childcare availability, or cultural norms, the comparative literature suggests that cross-country differences in these dimensions likely contribute to the observed patterns. The findings point to the potential importance of integrated policy approaches, including affordable childcare and flexible work arrangements, in supporting women’s employment alongside fertility.