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- MakaleAçık Erişim2024Decoding Inflation: Role of Institutional Quality in Türkiye Using Advanced Econometric Techniques
Çiçen, Yildirim Beyazit
Persistent inflation remains a significant economic challenge in T & uuml;rkiye. The causes of high inflation have been examined through various factors, including supply and demand, as well as monetary and fiscal policies. However, few studies have included institutional factors in their analyses. The objective of this study is to determine whether institutional quality affects inflation in T & uuml;rkiye. A novel and robust econometric analysis method is employed in this study. Between 2005 and 2019, the inflation rate, the International Country Risk Guide's (ICRG) Political Risk Rating index, which measures the quality of institutional structure, and the changes in currency exchange rate basket variables in T & uuml;rkiye were examined using the Fourier KPSS stationarity test and the Fourier Shin cointegration test. The results of the analysis indicate that inflation rate is co-integrated with institutional quality. The deterioration of institutional quality in T & uuml;rkiye between 2005 and 2019 has been associated with an increase in inflation. While the implicit inflation targeting period in the inflation targeting regime implemented in T & uuml;rkiye after 2002 was relatively successful, the explicit inflation targeting period failed to reduce inflation. The primary reason for the inability to achieve the specified inflation targets during these periods is the deterioration in the quality of institutions. It is also important to note that central bank independence is not immune to political influence and is one of the most important factors affecting inflation targeting.
AtıfOpenAlex2TR Dizin1İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ3The Nexus between Institutional Quality and Inflation in Emerging Markets: A Panel Causality Test with a Fourier Function
Cicen, Yildirim Beyazit
It is important to note that institutional quality has a substantial impact on a country's long-term economic growth, which influences other economic indicators, such as inflation and monetary policy. An indepth examination of the existence of this crucial relationship was conducted by applying a novel and robust panel Yilanci-Gorus Fourier causality test between 2000 and 2019 to 24 developing countries, in order to detect this relationship. A recent inflation rate, the standard deviation of inflation, and sound money are all interconnected and mutually causally related to property rights and the quality of the legal system. Weakness in institutions can exacerbate financial shocks, thereby affecting monetary indicators, and monetary policies will deteriorate the quality of the institution as a result.
AtıfScopus3OpenAlex3İncele - Yüksek Lisans TeziAçık Erişim2020Enflasyon hedeflemesine geçişte TCMB ve para politikası uygulamaları
Emre Akyıldız
Bu çalışmada; para politikasının genel çerçevesi, para politikası stratejileri ve bunların avantaj ve dezavantajları, parasal aktarım mekanizmaları, para politikası araçları ve amaçları incelenmiştir. Bununla birlikte, Türkiye'de tarihsel bir süreç içerisinde tercih edilen para politikası amaçları, stratejileri ve bu amaç ve stratejilere ulaşabilmek için kullanılan para politikası araçlarının gelişimi ve değişiminin nasıl ve neden gerçekleştiği ele alınacaktır. Türkiye'de 2000 yılı sonrasında uygulanan para politikalarının makro ekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkileri, uygulamadaki başarısı ve 2008 küresel kriz sonrasında uygulanan para politikaları üzerinde durulmuştur. Sonuç olarak Türkiye'de Şubat 2001'de yaşanan krizin ardından Merkez Bankası'nın yetkileri nezdinde değişikliklere gidilmiş ve esas amacı fiyat istikrarı olarak belirlenmiştir. 2002 yılından sonra uygulanan para politikaları sonucunda fiyat istikrarı ve bankacılık sektörünün krizlere dayanıklılığı arttırılmıştır. Türkiye'nin 2008 krizine kadar para politikasında yaptığı değişiklikler üzerinde de ayrıca durulmuştur. 2008 küresel kriziyle birlikte geleneksel olmayan para politikaları önem kazanmaya başlamıştır. Ancak, son yıllarda TCMB'nin politik bağımsızlıkla ilgili yaşadığı sorunlardan kaynaklı olarak özellikle politika faizini etkin bir şekilde kullanamadığı görülmektedir. Bu çerçevede son yıllarda TL'nin aşırı değer kaybetmesi ve enflasyon hedefinin tutturulamaması da TCMB'nin para politikalarında istenilen düzeyde başarıya ulaşamadığını göstermektedir. Enflasyon hedeflemesinde her ne kadar belirli dönemlerde başarı sağlansa da bunu genel olarak söylemek mümkün değildir. Ülkenin kronik sorunlarından olan dış ticaret ve cari işlemler açığı ve işsizlik artışının da katkısıyla ekonomik büyümede istikrarlı bir yapıya ulaşılamamıştır. Bu nedenle çalışmada bu alandaki temel makro ekonomik göstergelere yer verilmiştir.
- Kitap BölümüYalnız künye2020Exchange rate pass-through to inflation: The case of Turkey
Koç, Pinar
The exchange rate volatility affects to domestic price level via production costs in countries where production level depends largely on import inputs. Turkey is also one of the countries whose production level depends largely on import inputs. Thereby intermediate good import accounts for about of 76 % total import. It is expected that the exchange rate pass-through to inflation is high in Turkey. In this context, in this study, the validity and stability of the pass through effect hypothesis was analyzed in Turkey for the period 1990:01-2019:01. According to the results of the study, the pass-through effect hypothesis is valid in Turkey.
- MakaleYalnız künye2019Scopus SJRQ1The effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism channel in Turkey
Okur, Fatih; Akkuş, Ömer; Durmaz, Atakan
This study investigates on which channels the monetary transmission mechanism works effectively. In this context, quarterly data for the period 2005-2017 is used for Turkey and the variables used to determine the efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism are analyzed by the VAR method. The obtained results indicate that the loans and reserves have a more effective role on the inflation as a channel of the monetary transmission mechanism. According to the long run results, while the exchange rate and reserves channel have a negative effect on the real GDP, it is revealed that loans have a positive effect on the real GDP in the long run stabilization.
AtıfScopus3WoS3İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2018The Effects of Military Expenditures on Inflation in Turkey: A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks
Karakurt, Birol; Sentürk, Suat Hayri; Sahingöz, Burak
Internal and external threats to Turkey lead her to have its military expenditures at a high level. The relationship between military expenditures and macroeconomic variables has been of great interest to a number of studies. However, there is no common view about the relationship between military expenditures and the inflation. In this study, the relationship between military expenditures and the inflation in Turkey is aimed to be analysed for the period 1966-2016. The length of the study period requires considering structural breaks. Therefore, according to the results of our study that benefits from a Maki cointegration test with structural breaks and Toda-Yamamoto causality test, a unidirectional positive causality between military expenditures and the inflation has been found both in the short-and the long-run.
AtıfWoS4TR Dizin10İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2018The Relationship between Trade Openness and Inflation: An Analysis for Turkey within the Frame of Romer Hypothesis
Özçag, Mustafa; Bölükbas, Mehmet
The aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between trade openness and inflation in Turkey economy for the period of 1980-2015. Unlike the other studies, symmetrical and asymmetrical analyses were used to examine the relationship between variables. The symmetric relationship between variables was analysed with Johansen cointegration and Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) causality tests. The findings of symmetric analyses show that there is no cointegration or causality relationship. Whereas Hatemi-J and Irandoust (2012) hidden cointegration test and Hatemi-J (2012) causality tests were used for asymmetric analyses. According to the results of Hatemi-J and Irandoust (2012) hidden cointegration test, a cointegration relationship between trade openness and inflation in Turkey has been proved.
- MakaleYalnız künye2014Is There a Causality Relationship Between Budget Deficit and Inflation Ratio During High Inflation Period? Case of Turkey Between 1978 and 2002
Dogru, Bulent
In this study it is analyzed whether there is a cause-and-effect relationship between inflation and budget deficit in Turkey with the annual data covering the time period between 19782002 when inflation was high and chronic. Econometric methods used in the study is based on the Johansen co-integration analysis and Granger causality connected error correction model. Empirical results suggest that in the longrun budget deficit and inflation is co-integrated, while budget deficit is Granger cause of inflation in short-run. However, inflation is not Granger cause of budget deficit. In other wordse causality is unilateral. The research also found that, response of inflation to a percentage increase in budget deficit is greater than ten percent in short-run.
AtıfTR Dizin9İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2013Do Exchange Rates and Budget Deficit Lead to Inflation? A Panel Causality Analysis on Developing Asian Countries
Dogru, Bulent; Recepoglu, Mursit; Çelik, Orkun
In developing economies, budget deficit and exchange rates can lead inflation through shallow financial markets. In this study it is tested whether budget deficit and exchange rates cause inflation in long-run and short-run for 22 developing Asian countries for the time period of 1980 and 2011. The reason why we select all the developing countries from one region is that we assume all countries have fixed unit effect in the models. In this study we use panel cointegration, error correction model and panel causality methods as empiric test. Findings suggest that in short-run there is no causality running from exchange rate and budget deficit to inflation but in long-run budget deficit and exchange rates cause inflation.
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