Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleYalnız künye2014ARE OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS TRANSITORY IN THE MENA REGION?
Dogru, Bulent
This study analyzes the nonstationarity of per capita real GDP for 11 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Countries over the period 1970 to 2012 using two recently developed methods. SURADF and CADF panel unit root tests allowing for cross sectional dependence are used to determine whether output fluctuations are permanent or transitory. Contrary to the traditional view of business cycle, we find econometric evidence supporting the idea that the output fluctuations in MENA region are mostly permanent. These results also emphasize that the effectiveness of stabilization policies aimed at real output by the government should be reviewed to achieve longlasting results.
- MakaleYalnız künye2014Is There a Causality Relationship Between Budget Deficit and Inflation Ratio During High Inflation Period? Case of Turkey Between 1978 and 2002
Dogru, Bulent
In this study it is analyzed whether there is a cause-and-effect relationship between inflation and budget deficit in Turkey with the annual data covering the time period between 19782002 when inflation was high and chronic. Econometric methods used in the study is based on the Johansen co-integration analysis and Granger causality connected error correction model. Empirical results suggest that in the longrun budget deficit and inflation is co-integrated, while budget deficit is Granger cause of inflation in short-run. However, inflation is not Granger cause of budget deficit. In other wordse causality is unilateral. The research also found that, response of inflation to a percentage increase in budget deficit is greater than ten percent in short-run.
- BildiriAçık Erişim2013The link between unemployment rate and real output in Eurozone: A panel error correction approach
Dogru, Bulent; Ozsahin, M
In this paper we investigate the relationship between economic growth andunemployment in Eurozone through the implementation of Okun's Law using annual panel dataset covering the time period 2000-2012. Panel error correction and panel co-integration methods are used to test the linkage between unemployment and growth rate. We also investigate unemployment hysteresis using several non-stationary panel unit root techniques for unemployment hysteresis in all Euroregions. Findings suggest that Okun's Law is valid but coefficients are less thanOkun's coefficient for USA and other empirical studies on developed countries. Also we find that the relationship between economic growth rate and unemployment rate vary between countries.
- MakaleYalnız künye2013Do Exchange Rates and Budget Deficit Lead to Inflation? A Panel Causality Analysis on Developing Asian Countries
Dogru, Bulent; Recepoglu, Mursit; Çelik, Orkun
In developing economies, budget deficit and exchange rates can lead inflation through shallow financial markets. In this study it is tested whether budget deficit and exchange rates cause inflation in long-run and short-run for 22 developing Asian countries for the time period of 1980 and 2011. The reason why we select all the developing countries from one region is that we assume all countries have fixed unit effect in the models. In this study we use panel cointegration, error correction model and panel causality methods as empiric test. Findings suggest that in short-run there is no causality running from exchange rate and budget deficit to inflation but in long-run budget deficit and exchange rates cause inflation.