Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
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- Yüksek Lisans TeziAçık Erişim2020İşsizlik ve üçüz açık
Mücella Koz
İşsizlik dünya genelinde birçok ülkenin karşı karşıya kaldığı makroekonomik sorunlardan biridir. Bu nedenle oldukça önem arz eden ciddi bir ekonomik sorundur. İşsizlik, gelişmişlik düzeylerine göre her ülkede farklı boyutlarda etkili olmakla beraber özellikle Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, zamanla yapısal bir problem haline gelmektedir. Ekonomide iç ve dış dengeyi temsil eden tasarruf- yatırım dengesi, bütçe dengesi ve cari dengedeki bozulmalar, farklı ekonomik sorunları beraberinde getirmektedir. Dolayısıyla dünyada her geçen gün artan işsizliğin, üçüz açığı oluşturan bileşenlerle ilişkisi merak edilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı makroekonomik istikrarsızlığın önemli göstergelerinden biri olan işsizliğin, üçüz açığı oluşturan tasarruf açığı, bütçe açığı ve cari açıkla olan ilişkisini incelemektir. Bu amaçla Türkiye'de işsizlik ve üçüz açık ilişkisi, 2000:1-2020:4 dönemini kapsayan veriler kullanılarak Yapısal VAR (SVAR) yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, işsizliği en fazla etkileyen değişkenin cari açık en az etkileyen değişkenin ise bütçe açığı değişkeni olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca tasarruf açığı değişkeni ve modelde kontrol değişken olarak yer alan döviz kuru değişkeninin işsizliği azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
- MakaleYalnız künye2018Testing twin deficits hypothesis for Eu-27 and Turkey: A panel granger causality approach under cross-sectional dependence
Bölükbaş, Mehmet; Topal, Mehmet Hanefi; Hotunluoğlu, Hakan
Twin deficits hypothesis has been one of the most widely-applied phenomenon in the economics literature. In this study, the twin deficits hypothesis was tested for the EU-27 member states and Turkey with the data covering the 2002:Q1-2014:Q1 period. Unlike other studies, the twin deficits hypothesis was tested by using second generation panel causality tests that considered the cross-sectional dependence. According to the findings of this study, which used panel Granger causality tests suggested by Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) and Emirmahmutoğlu-Kose (2011), there is statistically significant bidirectional causality between budget deficit (BD) and current account deficit (CAD) in the relevant period. It was found out a bidirectional causality between BD and CAD in sixteen of the twenty-eight countries (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Romania, Spain, Turkey and the UK) and a unidirectional causality from BD to CAD was also noticed in five EU countries (Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia). Nevertheless, the findings indicated that there is a unidirectional causality from CAD to BD in Hungary, Luxembourg and Malta but there is no causality between BD and CAD in Ireland, Portugal, Slovenia, and Sweden.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2013Testing for causality between the foreign direct investment, current account deficit, GDP and total credit: Evidence from G7
Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem; Senturk, Mehmet; Sancar, Canan
In this study, countries were analyzed between 1990 and 2011 in order to determine whether a causal relationship exists among current account deficit, GDP, foreign direct investment, and total credits of G7. Analysis took into account the cross-sectional dependence and was applied to test the causality among the variables form the panel. Firstly, panel unit root tests were used for determining stationary of variables. As a result of the panel unit root tests, it was found that GDP and foreign direct investment have a stationary structure and that total credits and current account deficit contain unit root. In order to see whether there is a long-term relationship among the variables or not, the panel co-integration test was used. As a result of the test, it was concluded that there is a co-integration relationship among the series. The possibility of a causal relationship was analyzed among the variables using the causality test developed by Elena Ivona Dumitrescu and Christophe Hurlin (2012). Results of the analysis showed a unidirectional causal relationship from current account deficit and foreign direct investment to GDP. Bidirectional causality was found between current account deficit and total credits. Finally, a unidirectional relationship was found from foreign direct investment to current account deficit and total credits.