Yazarlar
Yayınlar
- MakaleYalnız künye2019The Sustainability of Budget Deficit in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Relationship
Akkus, Omer; Durmaz, Atakan
This study, starting from the point of intertemporal budget constraint approach, examines the sustainability of budget deficit in Turkey for 1930-2016 period by taking Quintos (1995)'s strength and weakness conditions for the sustainability of the budget deficit and Hakkio and Rush's (1991) approach to how to ensure the sustainability of the budget deficit. In this study, the cointegration relationship between the budget revenues and expenditures is tried to be revealed through the Johansen Cointegration method and the Hidden Cointegration Method developed by Hatemi-J and Irandoust (2012) based on the prior method. Cointegration coefficient is estimated by FMOLS, DOLS, CCR. Results indicate that there is a cointegration relationship between budget revenues and budget expenditures and the budget deficit is sustainable even in weak form in Turkey.
AtıfWoS1
İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2018Scopus SJRQ2Testing twin deficits hypothesis for Eu-27 and Turkey: A panel granger causality approach under cross-sectional dependence
Bölükbaş, Mehmet; Topal, Mehmet Hanefi; Hotunluoğlu, Hakan
Twin deficits hypothesis has been one of the most widely-applied phenomenon in the economics literature. In this study, the twin deficits hypothesis was tested for the EU-27 member states and Turkey with the data covering the 2002:Q1-2014:Q1 period. Unlike other studies, the twin deficits hypothesis was tested by using second generation panel causality tests that considered the cross-sectional dependence. According to the findings of this study, which used panel Granger causality tests suggested by Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) and Emirmahmutoğlu-Kose (2011), there is statistically significant bidirectional causality between budget deficit (BD) and current account deficit (CAD) in the relevant period. It was found out a bidirectional causality between BD and CAD in sixteen of the twenty-eight countries (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Romania, Spain, Turkey and the UK) and a unidirectional causality from BD to CAD was also noticed in five EU countries (Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia). Nevertheless, the findings indicated that there is a unidirectional causality from CAD to BD in Hungary, Luxembourg and Malta but there is no causality between BD and CAD in Ireland, Portugal, Slovenia, and Sweden.
AtıfScopus6WoS5
İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2014Is There a Causality Relationship Between Budget Deficit and Inflation Ratio During High Inflation Period? Case of Turkey Between 1978 and 2002
Dogru, Bulent
In this study it is analyzed whether there is a cause-and-effect relationship between inflation and budget deficit in Turkey with the annual data covering the time period between 19782002 when inflation was high and chronic. Econometric methods used in the study is based on the Johansen co-integration analysis and Granger causality connected error correction model. Empirical results suggest that in the longrun budget deficit and inflation is co-integrated, while budget deficit is Granger cause of inflation in short-run. However, inflation is not Granger cause of budget deficit. In other wordse causality is unilateral. The research also found that, response of inflation to a percentage increase in budget deficit is greater than ten percent in short-run.
AtıfTR Dizin9
İncele - MakaleYalnız künye2013Do Exchange Rates and Budget Deficit Lead to Inflation? A Panel Causality Analysis on Developing Asian Countries
Dogru, Bulent; Recepoglu, Mursit; Çelik, Orkun
In developing economies, budget deficit and exchange rates can lead inflation through shallow financial markets. In this study it is tested whether budget deficit and exchange rates cause inflation in long-run and short-run for 22 developing Asian countries for the time period of 1980 and 2011. The reason why we select all the developing countries from one region is that we assume all countries have fixed unit effect in the models. In this study we use panel cointegration, error correction model and panel causality methods as empiric test. Findings suggest that in short-run there is no causality running from exchange rate and budget deficit to inflation but in long-run budget deficit and exchange rates cause inflation.
AtıfTR Dizin4İncele