Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Topo-climatic control on earlywood and latewood growth of Pinus sylvestris L. across the Eastern Black Sea (Türkiye) climatic barrier
Işık, Fatih; Eraslan, Selim; Köse, Nesibe
This study investigates the growth dynamics of Pinus sylvestris across the Zigana and Tersun Mountains in the Eastern Black Sea transition zone (Türkiye), elucidating the role of topography in modulating climate–growth relationships. By utilizing 476 increment cores from 239 trees across 12 sites, we developed tree-ring width (TRW), earlywood (EW), and latewood (LW) chronologies to evaluate growth responses along elevation and aspect gradients using moving correlation analysis and Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMM). Results reveal a pronounced topo-climatic differentiation: northern slopes of Zigana operate under cold-limited regimes, where growth is primarily governed by early-season temperatures (March–April). Conversely, southern slopes and the inland Tersun Mountains exhibit a shift toward moisture-limited regimes, with growth showing high sensitivity to May–June precipitation. Moving correlation analyses demonstrate a significant temporal transition since the late 1960s, where temperature-driven growth stimulation has been progressively replaced by an intensifying sensitivity to early-season moisture availability. GAMM results revealed non-linear growth responses to seasonal temperature and precipitation variability. The response curves indicated reduced growth under colder March–April conditions, with relative growth increasing markedly when March–April mean temperatures exceeded a model-estimated threshold of approximately 2.0–2.2 °C. May temperature showed a narrow statistical optimum around 7.5–9.7 °C, above which the estimated growth response declined. May–June precipitation promoted growth up to a model-dependent saturation threshold of approximately 300 mm, followed by a tendency toward saturation or decrease. Ultimately, the Eastern Black Sea climatic barrier generates high local-scale variability, rendering inland populations increasingly vulnerable to drought stress under ongoing climate warming. These findings underscore the necessity of topographic context in climate-growth studies and emphasize the urgent need for site-specific, climate-adaptive forest management strategies.
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Multi-scale greening dynamics in Türkiye’s Ecoregions (2001–2024): the effects of elevation and land cover on NDVI change tendencies
Işık, Fatih; Eraslan, Selim
Understanding vegetation dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems is critical under the pressures of global climate change and anthropogenic activities. This study analyzes vegetation dynamics from 2001 to 2024 in Türkiye’s 13 biodiverse terrestrial ecoregions using a multi-scale approach, focusing not only on the main drivers, but also on the interactive and context-specific role of these factors. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, integrated through a structured multi-scale framework, we applied statistical methods including the Mann–Kendall test, Kruskal–Wallis test, and LOESS curves optimized with leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) to objectively model non-linear dynamics. The results revealed statistically significant positive NDVI change tendencies in all 13 terrestrial ecoregions (Mann–Kendall test, p < 0.05). Forest-dominated ecoregions exhibited the strongest greening, with Sen’s slope values reaching +0.0032 NDVI year⁻1 in the Euxine–Colchic Broadleaf Forests, whereas steppe ecosystems showed more moderate increases (e.g., Central Anatolian Steppe: + 0.0019 NDVI year⁻1). Across elevation gradients, the most consistent and strongest greening occurred at mid-elevations (500–1500 m; τ ≈ 0.40–0.65), while change tendencies weakened and became more heterogeneous at higher elevations. Land-cover-based analysis further showed that natural vegetation types exhibited the strongest nationwide tendencies (“Trees”: τ = 0.71; “Shrubland”: τ = 0.66), whereas anthropogenically influenced classes displayed weaker or regionally variable responses. Beyond documenting general greening patterns, the original contribution of this study lies in introducing a structured multi-scale framework that integrates long-term MODIS NDVI time series (2001–2024) with ecoregion, elevation, and land cover contexts. This approach enables the objective identification of ecosystem-specific and scale-dependent vegetation dynamics that cannot be captured by conventional single-scale or linear trend-based analyses commonly applied in previous studies in Türkiye.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2025Spatially explicit modeling of road icing susceptibility using GIS and a multi-criteria decision approach: A case study of Gümüşhane city (Türkiye)
Işık, Fatih; Kanyılmaz, Rabia; Çağlak, Savas; Eraslan, Selim; Zeybek, Halil İbrahim
This study develops and validates a GIS-based, spatio-temporal model to identify and prioritize road segments with high icing susceptibility in the Gümüşhane city center, Türkiye. Icing on urban roadways constitutes a significant threat to vehicular and pedestrian safety, particularly in regions characterized by complex topography and dense urban morphology. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework, employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with structured expert input, was used to synthesize ten primary causative factors. These include solar radiation, temperature, aspect, object height, precipitation, elevation, pavement material, slope, albedo, and road width — each representing a distinct topographic, climatic, or morphological influence on urban road icing. The AHP quantitatively established the relative influence of these factors, identifying solar radiation (28.5%), temperature (18.2%), and aspect (13.5%) as the most dominant drivers. The model generates monthly susceptibility maps that reveal "urban canyons"—narrow streets flanked by highrise buildings—consistently exhibit the highest and most persistent susceptibility due to severely limited solar radiation. The accuracy of the model's spatial predictions was quantitatively validated through field observations, with 91.4% of recurring icing locations correctly identified within high or very high susceptibility zones. This research culminates not only in a robust scientific framework but also in a validated decision-support tool that has been successfully integrated into the Gümüşhane City Information System (GCIS), where it is now operationally used to optimize winter maintenance strategies. Ultimately, this work provides a replicable, data-driven approach for enhancing urban resilience and traffic safety in challenging topographical settings.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2024Investigation of the relationship between the buildings collapsed in February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaras earthquakes and the soil and analysis of the risk of collapse in earthquakes
Eraslan, Selim; Hatipoglu, Ilter Kutlu; Ocak, Fatih; Isik, Fatih; Zeybek, Halil Ibrahim
In this study, the building-ground relationship in the areas affected by the February 6 Kahramanmaras earthquakes was determined, and the risk of building collapse in future earthquakes was analyzed. Remote sensing techniques determined the collapsed building-soil relationship, and the frequency ratio method was applied by utilizing Geographic Information Systems techniques to assess the risk of collapse in earthquakes. According to the research results, 84% of the collapses occurred in flat areas. On the other hand, 49.7% of the collapses occurred in the 0-500 m elevation range. In particular, it was determined that 46% (110.8 km(2)) of the collapsed buildings occurred on alluvial land belonging to the Quaternary period. According to the earthquake frequency analysis of the total 108,812 km(2) area considered in this study, 43.72% of the area is at the Risky level, indicating that a large part of the region is at significant earthquake risk. Moreover, Hatay, Adana, Osmaniye, Sanliurfa, Kahramanmaras, and Malatya are the provinces where the risk of collapse of buildings in an earthquake is high. These results reveal the necessity of analyzing by considering many criteria in determining residential areas in provinces at risk of earthquakes.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2023A quantıtatıve assessment of selected potentıal geosıtes from gümüşhane (türkiye) for the development of geotourısm
Dede, Volkan; Zorlu, Kuttusi; Eraslan, Selim
This study aims to propose an MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model) framework for evaluating seven geosites selected from Gümüşhane (Türkiye). For this purpose, seven geosites to be assessed according to the geosite evaluation criterion introduced by Brilha (2016) were analysed with MEREC-based TOPSIS and EDAS techniques, which are MCDM approaches. According to the results, the most important criteria in the field have been representativeness (SV1), safety (PEU4 and PTU4), and legal protection (DR3). Besides the most important geosites were Karaca Cave and Tomara Waterfall. It is thought that the methodology proposed in the study and the findings obtained will provide a theoretical basis for the subject literature. It is also believed that the results may provide insight into developing practical implications for local stakeholders regarding planning and management