The Effect of Support Premiums on Sunflower Supply: ARDL Model

The sunflower plant, which is estimated to have been cultivated in North America, gained great importance in the world economy in a short time. Sunflower has an important place in the Turkish economy as well as in the world economies. Despite its importance on economies, it is seen that the product has not been extensively studied in the literature. Therefore, this study aims to empirically determine the factors affecting sunflower production of producers in Turkey and empirically analyze the effect of support premiums on sunflower supply. This relationship was analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. Annual time series for the period of 1994-2021 were used in the analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the other variables, except for the crisis dummy variable in the long-term supply function are statistically significant. When the results were analyzed in terms of signs, it was concluded that all the variables in the supply function aligned with the economic expectation. In sunflower supply, while sunflower prices (0.87), support premium (0.11), productivity (0.86) and trend (0.02) variables have an increasing effect, the input cost variable (0.14) has a decreasing effect.