Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
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- MakaleAçık Erişim2025Scopus SJRQ2Future of Clean Cooking Energy Access in Emerging Economies by 2030
Cakir, Mehmet Ali; Unlu, Ramazan; Cakir, Sümeyra Cay; Xanthopoulos, Petros
This study assesses the future of clean energy and technology access for cooking in emerging economic blocs—BRICS, MINT, ASEAN, and MENA—through 2030. Cooking contributes 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with over half of household emissions coming from cooking. Therefore, clean cooking energy is critical for sustainability and human health. The study aims to evaluate the likelihood of achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goal of universal clean cooking energy access by 2030 and the 2050 net-zero emissions target. Machine learning techniques, such as support vector regression, gradient boosting, and linear regression, alongside an ensemble approach, provide forecasts for these regions. The findings show a varied outlook. Within ASEAN, two countries are expected to reach 100% clean energy access for cooking by 2030, while two are likely to experience a decline. The MENA region shows stronger progress, with eight countries expected to meet the 2030 target. Among BRICS countries, only India is projected to reach full accessibility, while Russia faces a decline. The MINT countries face challenges, with none expected to meet the target, and Nigeria is projected to experience a decrease in clean energy access. The study concludes that the current trajectory makes achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and the 2050 net-zero emissions target unlikely for these regions. Policymakers must reassess their strategies and learn from successful countries to improve outcomes.
AtıfScopus3OpenAlex3
İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ4Multiple parameter analysis for assessing and forecasting earthquake hazards in the Lake Van region, Turkey
Öztürk, Serkan; Alkan, Hamdi
A detailed spatial-temporal analysis of the seismic activity in and around the Lake Van region was performed using several seismotectonic parameters such as b-value, Z-value, relative intensity (RI), pattern informatics (PI), and Coulomb stress changes. Correlations between these parameters were analyzed to esti-mate and forecast potential seismic hazards in the Lake Van region. Particular attention was paid to the parts of the study region that exhibited smaller b-values, higher Z-values, and high-stress changes at the beginning of 2022 and to the locations of earthquake hotspots determined from the composite earthquake forecast map for 2022–2032, i.e., Muradiye, Çaldıran, Özalp, Erçek, Van city center and Gevaş covering the faults of Çaldıran, Yeniköşk, Erciş, Malazgirt and the fault zones of Saray and Van. To provide more accurate interpretations regarding potential earthquake occurrences in the near future, the seismotectonic parameters analyzed in the scope of this study were compared with the corresponding seismological, geological, geodetical, and geochemical variables reported in the literature. This comparison showed that, firstly, our results are consistent with those reported in previous studies, and, secondly, all these variables should be interpreted in combination to correctly assess strong earthquake hazards. Furthermore, this type of multiple-parameter analysis may be important for the description of seismic, tectonic, and structural characteristics of the nature of the crust. Our findings show that almost all seismotectonic parameters indicative of anomaly regions, i.e., lower b-values, higher Z-values, high-stress distribution, and hotspots, were recorded in the same parts of the study region. Thus, the anomaly regions detected at the beginning of 2019 and between 2022 and 2032 may be considered to be potential zones of future great earthquakes. To summarize, the correlations among these variables may provide accurate information for assessing and forecasting earthquake hazards in this region.
AtıfScopus11WoS9
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