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- MakaleYalnız künye2026Scopus SJRQ2How does social expenditure affect the fiscal balance in European Union countries?
Sentürk, Suat Hayri; Karakurt, Birol; Keyifli Sentürk, Nazli
This study examines the relationship between social expenditures and fiscal balance in 27 European Union member states over the period 2000–2022. Using a panel data framework, the analysis focuses on four disaggregated categories of social expenditure: health, education, pensions, and social protection. The study employs the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test to identify the direction of causality and applies Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations to address potential endogeneity issues. The results reveal a unidirectional causal relationship running from fiscal balance to social expenditure categories. In addition, the findings indicate that fiscal balance exerts a significant constraining effect on all dimensions of social spending: improvements in fiscal balance (i.e. reduced deficits) are associated with decreases in social expenditures. Demographic factors also play an important role. Population ageing increases spending on pensions, health, and social protection, while a larger young population is associated with higher education expenditures. Institutional quality-measured by the rule of law-and national income positively influence social spending, whereas domestic savings and inflation have negative effects. Unemployment reduces spending on health and education but increases expenditures on social protection. Overall, the results highlight a fundamental policy dilemma: fiscal consolidation pressures may conflict with the need for social protection, particularly in the context of ageing European populations. By providing the first comprehensive analysis of how fiscal balance simultaneously affects multiple dimensions of social expenditure in EU countries, this study offers important insights for policymakers seeking to reconcile fiscal sustainability with inclusive social policy frameworks. The findings suggest that fiscal rules should be designed to safeguard essential social investments while maintaining budgetary discipline.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2025Measuring Türkiye's Fiscal Credibility and Transparency through Fiscal Balance and Debt Stock
Ibrahim, Al; Yildiz, Gizem Akbulut; Yildiz, Baris
Fiscal credibility and fiscal transparency affect many basic macroeconomic variables, especially economic growth, inflation and interest rates through expectations. Therefore, increasing credibility and transparency increase the effectiveness of fiscal policy by enabling better management of expectations. The aim of this study is to determine T & uuml;rkiye's fiscal credibility and transparency. For this purpose, T & uuml;rkiye's fiscal credibility and transparency were measured for the 2010-2023 period with the help of various indices, based on the International Monetary Fund's fiscal balance and debt stock expectations. According to the findings, it is possible to say that fiscal credibility decreased in T & uuml;rkiye, the absolute deviation between fiscal balance expectations and official targets increased, and fiscal transparency decreased, especially in the 2019-2022 period.
