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- Doktora TeziAçık Erişim2024Korunma motivasyonu teorisinin genişletilmiş modeline dayalı depreme hazırlık davranışlarını etkileyen faktörler ölçeği geliştirme çalışması
Hasan Yücel
Bireylerin depreme hazırlık kararlarını etkileyen faktörleri belirlemek için deprem tehlikesi yüksek bölgelerde yaşayan bireyler tarafından risk azaltıcı önlemlerin uygulanmasını incelemek amacıyla Korunma Motivasyonu Teorisinin 1983 yılında revize edilmiş ve genişletilmiş modeline dayalı Depreme Hazırlık Davranışlarını Etkileyen Faktörler Ölçeği geliştirme çalışması yapılmıştır. Ölçek geliştirme açısından metodolojik, bireylerde depreme hazırlık davranışlarını etkileyen faktörleri ortaya koymak açısından da tanımlayıcı araştırma tasarımı kullanılmıştır. Ölçek geliştirme pilot ve ana uygulamayı içeren iki süreçte gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu çalışmada pilot uygulamada 50 katılımcıya ulaşılmıştır. Pilot uygulama sonrası ana uygulamada taslak ölçek küme örnekleme yöntemi ile seçilen 11 mahalleden toplamda 826 katılımcıya 12.12.2022-02.05.2023 tarih aralığında ulaşılmıştır. Verilerin analizinde IBM SPSS Statistics 25 ve AMOS 24.0 paket programları kullanılmıştır. Aşırı değerler temizlendikten sonra 804 veri ile demografik değişkenler ve ölçek maddeleri değerlendirilmiştir. Ölçeğin yapı geçerliliği için ilk 402 kişilik gruptan alınan verilerle Açıklayıcı Faktör Analizi ikinci 402 kişilik gruptan alınan verilere ise Doğrulayıcı Faktör Analizi yapılmıştır. Ölçeğin son hali dört boyuttan 24 maddeden oluşmaktadır. Genel Cronbach alfa değeri 0,883 olup her boyut için 0,7'nin üzerindedir. Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin değeri 0,898, Bartlett küresellik testi anlamlı ve açıklanan toplam varyans %51'dir. Doğrulayıcı faktör analizi sonuçları ölçüm ve yapısal modelin iyi uyuma sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. (χ2/df = 1,779; RMSEA = 0,44; CFI = 0,96; NFI = 0,91; TLI = 0,95; p<0,001). Bulgular Depreme Hazırlık Davranışlarını Etkileyen Faktörler ölçeğinin, insanların depreme hazırlık davranışlarına katılımını etkileyen faktörleri açığa çıkarmak için geçerliliği ve güvenilirliği kanıtlanmış bir ölçek olduğunu göstermiştir. Çalışma sonucunda algılanan yeterliliğin bireylerin depreme hazırlık davranışlarına katılımında en önemli faktör olduğu saptanmıştır.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2023Multiple parameter analysis for assessing and forecasting earthquake hazards in the Lake Van region, Turkey
Öztürk, Serkan; Alkan, Hamdi
A detailed spatial-temporal analysis of the seismic activity in and around the Lake Van region was performed using several seismotectonic parameters such as b-value, Z-value, relative intensity (RI), pattern informatics (PI), and Coulomb stress changes. Correlations between these parameters were analyzed to esti-mate and forecast potential seismic hazards in the Lake Van region. Particular attention was paid to the parts of the study region that exhibited smaller b-values, higher Z-values, and high-stress changes at the beginning of 2022 and to the locations of earthquake hotspots determined from the composite earthquake forecast map for 2022–2032, i.e., Muradiye, Çaldıran, Özalp, Erçek, Van city center and Gevaş covering the faults of Çaldıran, Yeniköşk, Erciş, Malazgirt and the fault zones of Saray and Van. To provide more accurate interpretations regarding potential earthquake occurrences in the near future, the seismotectonic parameters analyzed in the scope of this study were compared with the corresponding seismological, geological, geodetical, and geochemical variables reported in the literature. This comparison showed that, firstly, our results are consistent with those reported in previous studies, and, secondly, all these variables should be interpreted in combination to correctly assess strong earthquake hazards. Furthermore, this type of multiple-parameter analysis may be important for the description of seismic, tectonic, and structural characteristics of the nature of the crust. Our findings show that almost all seismotectonic parameters indicative of anomaly regions, i.e., lower b-values, higher Z-values, high-stress distribution, and hotspots, were recorded in the same parts of the study region. Thus, the anomaly regions detected at the beginning of 2019 and between 2022 and 2032 may be considered to be potential zones of future great earthquakes. To summarize, the correlations among these variables may provide accurate information for assessing and forecasting earthquake hazards in this region.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2022A Statistical Analysis and Evaluation on the Earthquake Forecasting and Hazard for Lake Van and its adjacent area (Türkiye); [Van Gölü ve Civarı (Türkiye) İçin Deprem Tahmini ve Tehlikesi Üzerine İstatistiksel Bir Analiz ve Değerlendirme]
Ozturk, Serkan; Alkan, Hamdi
In this study, current earthquake hazard is tried to present and earthquake forecasting is made for Lake Van and its adjacent area for the next five years. For this purpose, a statistical analysis is achieved with the concomitant use of the b-value, Z-value, relative intensity (RI) and pattern informatics (PI) data. In addition, for the earthquake forecasting in the intermediate term and hazard, a comprehensive discussion is made with the studies analyzing the different seismological and geophysical variables in literature. The relations between these parameters reveal more accurate and reliable approaches. Consequently, at the beginning of 2022, particularly the areas having small b-value and large Z-value with the hotspots (possible earthquake areas) between 2022 and 2027 from the combined forecast map are determined in and around Muradiye, Çaldıran, Özalp, Van city centre and Gevaş including Çaldıran, Yeniköşk, Erciş and Malazgirt faults with Saray and Van Fault zones.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2021Anatomy of october 30, 2020, samos (Sisam) –kuşadası earthquake (mw 6.92) and its influence on aegean earthquake hazard
Bulut, Fatih; Doğru, Aslı; Yaltirak, Cenk; Yalvaç, Sefa; Elge, Murat
We investigated rupture geometry, size, and slip distribution of October 30, 2020, Samos (Sisam)–Kuşadası earthquake combining seismographs, GPS measurements, and SAR analysis. Right after the earthquake, we measured 13 additional campaign-based GPS sites to intensify the available GPS network consisting of 10 continuous stations. We combined all available seismographs to have the best possible accuracy for mainshock and aftershock hypocenter locations. We compiled all available seismic profiles and integrated them using high-resolution bathymetry to map seismically active faults. The mainshock hypocenter is located at 37.913 ± 0.009 N° and 26.768 ± 0.017 E° and a depth of 12.3 ± 1.7 km. Our fault plane solution shows that the mainshock has almost a pure normal-type mechanism. Based on accurate aftershock locations as well as InSAR results, the mainshock rupture is subsegmented with two north-dipping rupture planes. The rupture probably starts on a low angle plane generating 1.1 m average slip between the depths of 9–14 km. It merges to a steep plane at 9 km depth where it generates 1.2 m average slip extending towards the surface near the shoreline of Samos (Sisam) Island. Total size of the two rupture planes and their average slips determine that the magnitude of the mainshock is (Mw ) 6.92 ± 0.02. The mainshock has substantially increased Coulomb stress on several fault segments near the towns Kuşadası and Söke, which have the potentials to generate strong earthquakes. It also nonnegligibly increased Coulomb stress on several fault segments south of İzmir giving a warning for increased earthquake hazard in this highly inhabited area.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2021A comprehensive spatiotemporal evaluation of the current earthquake activity in different parts of the Frakull-Durrës fault zone, Albania
Öztürk, Serkan; Ormeni, Rrapo
This study presents a detailed spatiotemporal analysis for the Frakull-Durrës (F-D) fault zone at the beginning of 2020. For this purpose, the most frequently used statistical seismicity parameters such as magnitude completeness, Mc-value, Gutenberg-Richter b-value, recurrence times, annual probabilities and standard normal deviate, Z-value, were mapped. The F-D fault zone was divided into two seismogenic subregions, and Mc-value was taken as 2.5 for both the south and north parts. The b-value was estimated as 0.83 ± 0.06 for the south part and 0.85 ± 0.06 for the north part. b-values for both zones are smaller than 1.0 and these values may be considered to be a larger stress accumulation to build up over time and to be released by the next possible earthquakes. Clear decreasing trends were observed in time variations of b-values before the occurrences of several strong main shocks. Analyses of annual probabilities and recurrence times suggest that the study region has an intermediate/long-term earthquake hazard in comparison to occurrences of strong/destructive earthquakes in the short term. Some anomaly regions of a small b-value and a large Z-value were found along the F-D fault zone at the beginning of 2020: i) among Lushnje-Tirana-Durrës including the middle part of the F-D fault zone, ii) in and around Lezha including the north end of the F-D fault zone. Thus, the combination of regions with the lowest b-value and largest Z-value may supply preliminary results for earthquake hazard, and these regions may be considered to be the most likely regions for future strong/large earthquakes in the F-D fault zone.
- MakaleYalnız künye2018Earthquake hazard potential in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey: seismotectonic b and Dc-values and precursory quiescence Z-value
Öztürk, S.
The Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey is one of the most seismically and tectonically active regions due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes. Thus, the main goal of this study is to analyze the regional and temporal characteristics of seismicity in the Eastern Anatolia in terms of the seismotectonic b-value, fractal dimension Dc-value, precursory seismic quiescence Z-value, and their interrelationships. This study also seeks to obtain a reliable empirical relation between b and Dc-values and to evaluate the temporal changes of these parameters as they relate to the earthquake potential of the region. A more up-to-date relation of Dc = 2:55–0:39*b is found with a very strong negative correlation coefficient (r =–0.95) by using the orthogonal regression method. The b-values less than 1.0 and the Dc-values greater than 2.2 are observed in the Northeast Anatolian Fault Zone, Aşkale, Erzurum, Iğdır and Çaldıran Faults, Doğubeyazıt Fault Zone, around the Genç Fault, the western part of the Bitlis-Zagros Thrust Zone, Pülümür and Karakoçan Faults, and the Sancak- Uzunpınar Fault Zone. In addition, the regions having small b-values and large Z-values are calculated around the Genç, Pülümür and Karakoçan Faults as well as the Sancak-Uzunpınar Fault Zone. Remarkably, the combinations of these seismotectonic parameters could reveal the earthquake hazard potential in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey, thus creating an increased interest in these anomaly regions.