Vavra, Ellis; Fialko, Yuri; Bulut, Fatih; Garagon, Aslı; Yalvaç, Sefa; Yaltırak, Cenk

Understanding the behavior of large earthquakes over multiple seismic cycles is limited by short time spans of observations compared to recurrence intervals. Most of large instrumentally-recorded earthquakes have occurred on faults lacking well-documented histories of past events. The 2023 Mw 7.8–7.7 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet is exceptional as it ruptured multiple segments of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) system, where historical records of devastating earthquakes span over two millennia. Here, we use historical earthquake records, measurements of interseismic deformation, and published slip models of the 2023 events to evaluate the recurrence patterns of large earthquakes. We compare slip deficit that accrued on each fault segment since the respective penultimate events to the average coseismic slip of the 2023 doublet. We find that the coseismic slip equaled to or exceeded the accumulated slip deficit, suggesting that the slip-predictable recurrence model applies as a lower bound on strain release during the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes.

AtıfScopus12·WoS11

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Bulut, Fatih; Doğru, Aslı; Yaltirak, Cenk; Yalvaç, Sefa; Elge, Murat

We investigated rupture geometry, size, and slip distribution of October 30, 2020, Samos (Sisam)–Kuşadası earthquake combining seismographs, GPS measurements, and SAR analysis. Right after the earthquake, we measured 13 additional campaign-based GPS sites to intensify the available GPS network consisting of 10 continuous stations. We combined all available seismographs to have the best possible accuracy for mainshock and aftershock hypocenter locations. We compiled all available seismic profiles and integrated them using high-resolution bathymetry to map seismically active faults. The mainshock hypocenter is located at 37.913 ± 0.009 N° and 26.768 ± 0.017 E° and a depth of 12.3 ± 1.7 km. Our fault plane solution shows that the mainshock has almost a pure normal-type mechanism. Based on accurate aftershock locations as well as InSAR results, the mainshock rupture is subsegmented with two north-dipping rupture planes. The rupture probably starts on a low angle plane generating 1.1 m average slip between the depths of 9–14 km. It merges to a steep plane at 9 km depth where it generates 1.2 m average slip extending towards the surface near the shoreline of Samos (Sisam) Island. Total size of the two rupture planes and their average slips determine that the magnitude of the mainshock is (Mw ) 6.92 ± 0.02. The mainshock has substantially increased Coulomb stress on several fault segments near the towns Kuşadası and Söke, which have the potentials to generate strong earthquakes. It also nonnegligibly increased Coulomb stress on several fault segments south of İzmir giving a warning for increased earthquake hazard in this highly inhabited area.

AtıfScopus13·WoS10·OpenAlex11·TR Dizin3

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