Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Match success in football: insights from raw and possession-normalized key performance indicators in the Turkish professional league
Sever, Ozan; Öncü, Çağdaş; Öztaşyonar, Yunus; Aksoy, Ömer; Bayrakdaroğlu, Serdar
Background: Match-performance indicators are widely used to explain success in football; however, traditional analyses based solely on absolute key performance indicators (KPIs) may overlook contextual factors such as ball possession and phase of play. This study aimed to examine match-performance indicators associated with winning in Turkish professional football using two complementary approaches: a raw KPI model based on absolute match actions and a possession- and phase-of-play–normalized KPI model accounting for contextual opportunity. Methodology: Match data were obtained from a validated event-based database covering six consecutive seasons, yielding 2,728 team observations from 1,364 win–loss matches. Descriptive comparisons between winning and losing teams were conducted, followed by multivariate binary logistic regression analyses to identify performance indicators independently associated with match success under both modeling approaches. Results: At the descriptive level, winning teams demonstrated higher values for shots, shots on target, accurate passes, opponent-half accurate passes, accurate crosses (%), and opponent-half accurate passes (%), whereas total possession and total passes did not differ significantly between groups. In terms of disciplinary indicators, losing teams received significantly more yellow and red cards, whereas fouls committed were significantly higher in winning teams (p = 0.014). However, the normalized indicator (fouls committed per out-of-possession) did not differ significantly between groups. In the raw KPI model, positive predictors of match success included shots on target (OR = 1.58), accurate crosses (OR = 1.10), opponent-half accurate passes (OR = 1.01), and fouls committed (OR = 1.04). Negative predictors were total crosses (OR = 0.92), yellow cards (OR = 0.89), and red cards (OR = 0.49). In the possession-normalized model, significant positive predictors were shots on target per possession, accurate crosses per possession, and fouls committed per out-of-possession. Significant negative predictors included crosses per possession, accurate crosses (%), yellow cards per out-of-possession, and red cards per out-of-possession. Conclusions: The findings indicate that combining absolute performance indicators with context-sensitive normalized metrics may provide a more comprehensive perspective on match success in football. Offensive efficiency and disciplinary control emerged as key correlates of winning, particularly when evaluated relative to possession and phase-of-play contexts. These findings suggest the potential value of integrating contextualized performance analysis into match evaluation and performance analysis frameworks.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Multi-joint isokinetic strength profiling as a predictor of vertical jump performance in elite freestyle wrestlers A cross-sectional principal component analysis
Sever, Ozan; Ceylan, Halil Ibrahim; Dhahbi, Wissem; Yilmaz, Hasan Huseyin; Özdemir, Kubra; Yazici, Ahmet Gokhan; Jalalov, Ferhad; Günay, Ahmet Rahmi; Bayrakdaroglu, Serdar; Stefanica, Valentina
Wrestling requires coordinated lower-limb strength for explosive techniques. While isokinetic testing isolates joint-specific strength and countermovement jumps assess functional power, comprehensive multi-joint assessments with advanced factor analysis remain unexplored in elite wrestlers. Twenty-one national-level male freestyle wrestlers (22.3 +/- 2.8 years; 76.2 +/- 14.7 kg) completed cross-sectional neuromuscular assessments. Isokinetic concentric strength testing at 60 degrees/s evaluated hip, knee, and ankle joint functions bilaterally using an Isomed 2000 dynamometer. Vertical jump power was assessed through countermovement jumps under bilateral and unilateral conditions using the Optojump system. All strength and power variables were normalized to fat-free mass determined via air displacement plethysmography. Statistical analyses included Pearson correlations with Benjamini-Hochberg correction, stepwise multiple regression, and principal component analysis. Bilateral jump performance correlated strongly with knee extension (R = 0.798, P <.001) and hip extension strength (R = 0.664, P =.001), with combined predictors explaining 68.8% of variance (F-2,F-18 = 19.8, P <.001). Principal component analysis identified a primary extensor factor (hip and knee extension, 52.6% variance) and an auxiliary factor (ankle plantar flexion and hip adduction, 19.0% variance). Unilateral jump models demonstrated lower explanatory power (dominant: 39.8%, non-dominant: 25.7%). Multi-joint isokinetic strength assessment, particularly hip and knee extension capacity, provides a robust prediction of vertical jump performance in elite wrestlers. The identified primary extensor strength factor represents a fundamental neuromuscular capacity underlying explosive lower-limb function, supporting targeted strength development strategies for wrestling-specific performance enhancement.