Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Beyond reactive displacement: anticipatory mobility, climate governance, and the climate passport
Limon, Onur; Gürdal Limon, Elif
This article examines how existing mobility governance frameworks can be re-theorized to better align with the temporal dynamics of climate risk and the conditions shaping mobility decision-making. The analysis demonstrates that current mobility regimes systematically privilege discretionary, event-based protection while offering limited legal predictability or rights-based recognition for anticipatory and incremental mobility. Building on this analysis, the article develops the Climate Passport as a diagnostic framework rather than an operational policy instrument. The framework specifies three governance criteria that any adequate anticipatory mobility regime would need to satisfy: early recognition of climate risk before displacement becomes unavoidable, rights-based and legally predictable status for those facing slow-onset environmental harm, and institutional coherence across the currently fragmented domains of migration, refugee protection, and climate adaptation governance. Informed by the historical Nansen Passport and grounded in human rights and climate justice scholarship, the framework offers a systematic lens for examining how institutional architectures structure the timing, legitimacy, and accessibility of mobility under climate change. By reframing climate-related mobility as a structurally embedded component of adaptation rather than an exceptional failure of in situ resilience, the article contributes to interdisciplinary debates on migration, adaptation, and global justice.
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Arctic governance through discourse: Arctic and Arctic council observer states
Limon, Onur; Gürdal Limon, Elif
This article examines how Arctic governance is discursively constituted through national Arctic policy and strategy documents and how these discursive constructions differentiate governance roles between Arctic states and Arctic Council observer states. Rather than treating national strategies as neutral policy instruments, the study conceptualizes them as political texts that articulate authority, responsibility, and legitimacy within an asymmetrical governance system. Methodologically, the article employs qualitative discourse analysis of the most recent official Arctic strategies of eight Arctic states and twelve observer states. Using MAXQDA (version 24), the analysis is organized around six thematic domains: security policy; climate change and environment; international cooperation; resource management; Indigenous peoples and rights; and economic development and sustainability. The findings reveal a high degree of discursive convergence across both actor groups, particularly around climate change, sustainability, environmental protection, and cooperation. However, this convergence does not indicate substantive policy alignment or egalitarian governance. Arctic states frame governance through narratives of sovereignty, stewardship, and regulatory responsibility, while observer states construct legitimacy through scientific contribution, multilateralism, and normative alignment. The article argues that discursive convergence can function as a kind of governance infrastructure that enables participation while tending to stabilize asymmetrical authority.
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Ramifications of Türkiye's public engagement with polar regions
Limon, Onur; Caymaz, Ebru; Gurdal Limon, Elif; Demirayak, Ozgur; Dal, Adnan; Özsoy, Burcu
This study examines how T & uuml;rkiye's National Polar Science Programme (NPSP) and the National Polar Science Symposium (NPSS) define and implement public engagement within the country's emerging polar research framework. Situating T & uuml;rkiye's experience within broader international debates on public engagement in emerging and internationally governed scientific domains, the analysis draws on core science communication theories, including deficit-dialogue-participation models, typologies of public engagement, and co-production perspectives. Methodologically, the study employs qualitative document analysis of ten NPSP Monitoring and Assessment Reports (2018-2022) and seven NPSS abstract books (2017-2023), using an iterative and theory-informed coding process. The findings indicate that public engagement is predominantly shaped by informational and visibility-oriented strategies, while dialogic elements are gradually emerging through education- and youth-focused initiatives. However, institutionalised participatory mechanisms enabling public influence on research agendas remain limited. The study concludes that T & uuml;rkiye's public engagement trajectory reflects a hybrid and incremental configuration shaped by institutional development within an internationally governed research context. By treating the Turkish case as an analytically comparative example rather than a context-specific exception, the article contributes to international discussions on how public engagement is structured and institutionalised in emerging polar and climate research programmes.
- MakaleYalnız künye2026Polar science diplomacy of Türkiye: the Second International Polar Year case
Limon, Onur; Gurdal Limon, Elif; Caymaz, Ebru; Demirayak, Ozgur; Dal, Adnan; Özsoy, Burcu
This article examines T & uuml;rkiye's participation in the Second International Polar Year (IPY-II, 1932-1933) as a historically grounded and underexplored case of early science diplomacy. IPY-II coordinated interdisciplinary polar research across forty-four countries, and T & uuml;rkiye's involvement during the early Republican period offers fresh insight into interwar scientific cooperation. The article documents T & uuml;rkiye's scientific and institutional contributions and analyses them through the reciprocal framework of science impacting diplomacy and diplomacy impacting science. Drawing on archival documents, official correspondence, parliamentary records, and contemporary newspapers, supplemented by expert interviews, it assesses the case against an explicit definition of science diplomacy. T & uuml;rkiye's meteorological data, later incorporated into the synoptic weather maps of the Northern Hemisphere, were scientifically significant, institutionally coordinated, and internationally recognised, yet shaped by asymmetrical hierarchies. The case enriches the historical understanding of science diplomacy by non-hegemonic states.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2025A hybrid decision support system for transport policy selection: A case study on Russia's Northern Sea route in Artic region
Yalçin, Galip Cihan; Limon, Elif Gurdal; Kara, Karahan; Limon, Onur; Gürol, Pinar; Deveci, Muhammet; Demirayak, Ozgur; Tomáková, Hana
The selection of transport policies by countries is critical both for international relations and for the implementation of effective and sustainable transport practices. Countries consider numerous parameters when deciding on transport policies. This study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to assist countries in selecting transport policies and to demonstrate its applicability. The primary motivation of the research is to identify transport policies for Russia's Arctic region and to determine the best alternative policy based on expert evaluations. For this purpose, the IF-SIWEC-ARLON (Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets - Simple Weight Calculation - Alternative Ranking Using Two-Step Logarithmic Normalization) hybrid method was developed as a DSS in this study. To implement this hybrid method, a decision model incorporating experts, criteria, and transport policies was first established. The contribution levels of experts to the decision-making process were calculated using IF sets. Next, the criteria weights were determined using the IF-SIWEC approach. Finally, the ranking of transport policies was carried out using the IF-ARLON method. An algorithm representing the application of this hybrid method was developed and applied to a case study focusing on Russia's transport policy selection process of Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic region. The results supported the successful application of the IF-SIWEC-ARLON hybrid method. Its robustness was tested through sensitivity analysis scenarios, while the consistency of the findings was verified via comparative analyses. The study concluded that the best transport policy for Russia's Arctic region is Improved regulatory control with strategic international partnerships, with the most influential criterion in the decision process identified as State interests, security, and sovereignty..
- MakaleAçık Erişim2024STRATEGIC FLASHPOINTS: NATO’S CONTAINMENT OF RUSSIA IN THE BLACK SEA AND ARCTIC REGIONS; [Puncte fierbinți strategice: îngrădirea Rusiei de către NATO în zona Mării Negre și în regiunea arctică]
Aksoy, Metin; Limon, Onur; Limon, Elif Gürdal
This study examines the strategic significance of NATO’s containment policy in the Black Sea and Arctic regions and its impact on Russia’s geopolitical and military responses. These areas, once peripheral to play only a minor role in global security dynamics, have become critical flashpoints because of NATO enlargement and increasing Russian aggression. By applying George Kennan’s containment theory to NATO’s post-Cold War strategy, this study examines how NATO’s actions have contributed to the escalation of tensions in these regions. The analysis addresses the challenges and risks NATO faces in maintaining its containment approach and offers insights into the future relationship between NATO and Russia.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2024The impact of the Ukraine war on Russian military capabilities in the Arctic
Limon, Onur; Gürdal Limon, Elif
This study examines the impact of the two-year occupation of Ukraine on Russia’s military capabilities in the Arctic and analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia’s military capacity in this region. Using a methodology based on document analysis and SWOT analysis, the study aims to unravel the intricate interplay between the Ukraine conflict and Russia’s military aspirations in the Arctic and thereby improve our understanding of the military implications of these developments. The results of the study highlight a remarkable imbalance in Russia’s military capabilities in the vast Arctic region, which stretches across the western, central, and eastern sectors. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is acting as a catalyst, forcing Russia to strengthen its conventional forces and improve its military readiness in the immediate future. As a result, there is a discernible inclination to prioritize nuclear capabilities as part of Russia’s strategic calculus in the Arctic region.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2023Ön-Alıcı ve Önleyici Müdahalede Simülasyonlar
Gürdal, Elif; Limon, Onur
Simülasyonlar gerçek ortamların taklit edilmesi ve birebir benzerlerinin matematiksel modellerle yaratılması ile oluşturulan dijital ortamlardır. Bu dijital ortamlara gerçek dünyanın verileri yüklenerek yaşanabilecek tüm olasılıkların hesaplanabilmesi mümkün olabilmektedir. Ortaya çıkan bilginin ise gerçek dünyadaki politikaları etkileyebilmesi tartışılması gereken bir konu olmaktadır. Simülasyonlar sayesinde devletlerin önemli güvenlik meselelerine dair olasılık hesaplarının yapılması artık sık sık başvurulan yöntemler haline gelmiştir. Ancak dijital alan üzerinden sağlanmaya çalışılan bu güvenlik yönteminin savunma dayanağı olarak yönlendirici olup olmayacağı ya da simülasyon verilerine dayanarak bir eylemde bulunmanın saldırı olarak yorumlanıp yorumlanamayacağı tartışılmalıdır. Bu çalışma bu sorulara yanıt aramak için ele alınmıştır. Kavramsal çerçeve ön-alıcı ve önleyici müdahale kavramlarıdır. Bu çerçevede simülasyon verilerinin müdahale ederken bir savunma dayanağı olarak kullanılmasının ön-alıcı mı yoksa önleyici mi olduğu tartışılmaktadır. Simülasyon verileri ve yapay zekâ analizlerinin düşman tanımlaması ve saldırganlık göstergelerinin hesaplamalarında meşru bir hukuksal dayanak olup olamaması uluslararası iş birliğinin şekli ve uluslararası aktörlerin kabul edilir seçenekleri meşrulaştırma süreçlerine göre değişmektedir.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2023Arktik güvenliğini yeniden düşünmek: değişimler ve zorluklar
Gürdal, Elif; Limon, Onur
Arktik, yeryüzünün benzersiz ve önemli bir parçasıdır. Dünyanın geri kalanından çok daha hızlı değişmekte ve uluslararası ilişkilerin odağı hâline gelmektedir. Güvenlik kavramı muğlaktır ve gerçekte ne olduğunu tanımlamak kolay değildir. Nesnel anlamda, edinilmiş değerlere yönelik tehditlerin olmamasını, öznel anlamda ise bu tür değerlere saldırılacağına dair korkunun olmamasını ölçer. Soğuk Savaş’tan günümüze Arktik’teki güvenlik tehditlerinin şekli (askerî, nükleer, çevresel vb.) değişse de güvenlik sorunları bölge devletlerinin güvenlik çıkarlarıyla iç içe geçmeye devam etmektedir. Bu makalenin amacı, Arktik güvenliğinin değişimini ve bu değişimin nasıl gerçekleştiğini incelemektir. Makalede nitel araştırma yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bilgilerin analizinde betimsel ve kısmen yorumlayıcı anlatım yöntemleri tercih edilmiştir. Arktik Devletleri’nin güvenliği bölgesel düzeyde birbirine bağlıdır ve bir aktörün eylemi diğerlerini etkilemektedir. Makale; Arktik güvenlik yörüngesinin, öncelikle bölgesel ilişkiler tarafından yönlendirilmediğini, bölgesel iş birliğinin dirençli ve açık olmasına rağmen güven inşa çabalarının azaldığını ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Mevcut durumda Arktik Devletleri’nin birbirlerine yönelik gerçek saldırı algıları düşüktür. Özelde Rusya genelde ise Rusya ve Çin ile Arktik’te uluslararası iş birliği ve güvenliğin 24 Şubat 2022’deki Rusya’nın Ukrayna saldırısı öncesi seviyelerine dönmesi güçtür.