Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleYayıncıda açık erişim2014A New Empirical Relation between Surface Wave Magnitude and Rupture Length for Turkey Earthquakes
Öztürk, Serkan
Many practical problems encountered in quantitative oriented disciplines entail finding the best approximate solution to an over determined system of linear equations. In this study, it is investigated the usage of different regression methods as a theoretical, practical and correct estimation tool in order to obtain the best empirical relationship between surface wave magnitude and rupture length for Turkey earthquakes. For this purpose, a detailed comparison is made among four different regression norms: (1) Least Squares, (2) Least Sum of Absolute Deviations, (3) Total Least Squares or Orthogonal and, (4) Robust Regressions. In order to assess the quality of the fit in a linear regression and to select the best empirical relationship for data sets, the correlation coefficient as a quite simple and very practicable tool is used. A list of all earthquakes where the surface wave magnitude (Ms) and surface rupture length (L) are available is compiled. In order to estimate the empirical relationships between these parameters for Turkey earthquakes, loglinear fit is used and following equations are derived from different norms: Ms = 1.02* LogL + 5.18, for L-2 Norm regression (R-2=0.71), Ms = 1.15* LogL + 4.98, for L-1 Norm regression (R-2=0.92), Ms = 1.04* LogL + 5.15, for Robust regression (R-2=0.75), Ms = 1.25* LogL + 4.86, for Orthogonal regression (R-2=0.68), Consequently, the empirical equation given by the Least Sum of Absolute Deviations regression as Ms = 1.15* LogL + 4.98 with a strong correlation coefficient (R-2=0.92) can be thought as more suitable and more reliable for Turkey earthquakes. Also, local differences in rupture length for a given magnitude can be interpreted in terms of local variation in geologic and seismic efficiencies. Furthermore, this result suggests that seismic efficiency in a region is dependent on rupture length or magnitude.
- MakaleYalnız künye2013Türkiye Depremleri için Fraktal Dağılım Dc-değeri ile Depremsellik Parametresi b-değeri Arasındaki İlişki Üzerine İstatistiksel Bir Değerlendirme
Öztürk, Serkan
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- MakaleYalnız künye2013A statistical assessment of current seismic quiescence along the North Anatolian fault zone: Earthquake precursors
Öztürk, Serkan
The variations of the current seismicity rate on the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the beginning of 2009 have been analyzed based on the phenomenon of precursory seismic sequence before crustal main shocks. For this purpose, a statistical assessment is made to detect the seismic quiescence situation by using the standard normal deviate Z-value. Eight seismic quiescence regions are observed and quiescence anomalies in these regions have been observed since the beginning of 2005. On the Marmara part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, four quiescence areas have been found on Silivri, in the Black Sea, around Izmit region and Çanakkale, Saros Gulf. On the Anatolian part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, two quiescence areas have been observed on the Düzce fault and around the city of Amasya. Other anomalies have been observed around Erzincan, Elaziǧ and Bingöl regions on the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Due to the occurrences of the last strong earthquakes "MW = 6.0-Elaziǧ earthquake, 2010 March 08; MW = 5.2 - Çanakkale (Saros Gulf) earthquake, 2010 November 03; MW = 5.5-Erzincan earthquake, 2011 September 22 and MW = 5.1-Marmara Ereǧlisi (Tekirdaǧ) earthquake, 2012 June 07", other seismic quiescence regions may contribute to the forecasting of impending main shocks. Spatial and temporal estimates of the future seismic hazard of the North Anatolian Fault Zone are provided based on the results.
- MakaleYalnız künye2012Spatial variations of precursory seismic quiescence observed in recent years in the eastern part of Turkey
Öztürk, Serkan; Bayrak, Yusuf
A statistical analysis is made for the eastern part of Turkey in the beginning of 2009 by studying the phenomenon of seismic quiescence as a potential precursor of the main shocks. The results produced four areas having seismic quiescence in the beginning of 2009. These areas are observed to be centered at 39.96°N-40.69°E (around Aşkale, Erzurum), 39.36°N-39.74°E (around Ovaci{dotless}k, Tunceli), 39.02°N-40.52°E (including Elazi{dotless}ǧ and Bingöl), and 38.45°N-42.94°E (Van Lake). Based on the recent results showing 5 ± 1.5 years quiescence before the occurrence of an earthquake in this region, the future earthquake would be expected between 2009. 5 and 2010. 5. The future earthquake occurrence may reach 2012 if we consider the standard deviation of average seismic quiescence as ±1.5 years. We have found that the MW = 6.0 Elazi{dotless}ǧ earthquake on 8 March 2010, followed a seismic quiescence starting about 5 years before the main shock. Thus, special interest should be given to the other regions where the seismic quiescence is observed.
- MakaleYalnız künye2012Statistical correlation between b-value and fractal dimension regarding Turkish epicentre distribution
Öztürk, Serkan
This study was aimed at analysing the relationship between seismic b-value and fractal dimension Dc-value for Turkish epicentres. The earthquake catalogue consisting of 99,737 instrumentally-registered Turkish events was analysed for the period between 1970 and 2011; Turkey was divided into 55 tectonic zones for making a detailed comparison. The b-values were calculated by the maximum likelihood method and the Dc-values were obtained with 95% confidence limits by linear regression. The results showed that higher Dc-values were associated with lower b-values and this could have been an indication of relatively high stress intensity and stronger epicentre clustering in these regions. Orthogonal regression was used to estimate a suitable statistical correlation between two seismotectonic parameters; the Dc = 2.44 - 0.30*b relationship was obtained with a strong negative correlation (r = -0.82) between b-value and Dc-value for Turkish earthquake distribution. This seemed to agree with other regional results obtained for different parts of Turkey and the rest of the world.
- MakaleYalnız künye2011Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western, Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis
Öztürk, Serkan
Characteristics of seismic activity along the North Anatolian Fault Zone are analyzed between 1970 and 2010. Magnitude completeness changes between 2.7 and 2.9 in the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes is well represented with a b-value typically close to 1. A clear decrease in temporal distribution of b-value is observed before the strong main shocks. Correlation dimension values are relatively large and the seismic activity is more clustered at larger scales in the North Anatolian Fault Zone. A statistical assessment is made in order to detect the current seismic quiescence anomalies in the beginning of 2010. Eight significant anomalous zones throughout the North Anatolian Fault Zone are detected. These are centered at: (1) 41.08°N-28.58°E (around Silivri), (2) 41. 47°N-29.51°E (in the Black Sea), (3) 40.69°N-29.78°E (including Izmit), (4) 40.26°N-26.46°E (around Gelibolu, Canakkale), (5) 40.59°N-31.03°E (including Duzce fault), (6) 40.86°N-35.30°E (around Amasya), (7) 39.48°N-39.74°E (around Erzincan), and (8) 39.06°N-40.50°E (around Bingol).