Spatial variations of precursory seismic quiescence observed in recent years in the eastern part of Turkey

A statistical analysis is made for the eastern part of Turkey in the beginning of 2009 by studying the phenomenon of seismic quiescence as a potential precursor of the main shocks. The results produced four areas having seismic quiescence in the beginning of 2009. These areas are observed to be centered at 39.96°N-40.69°E (around Aşkale, Erzurum), 39.36°N-39.74°E (around Ovaci{dotless}k, Tunceli), 39.02°N-40.52°E (including Elazi{dotless}ǧ and Bingöl), and 38.45°N-42.94°E (Van Lake). Based on the recent results showing 5 ± 1.5 years quiescence before the occurrence of an earthquake in this region, the future earthquake would be expected between 2009. 5 and 2010. 5. The future earthquake occurrence may reach 2012 if we consider the standard deviation of average seismic quiescence as ±1.5 years. We have found that the MW = 6.0 Elazi{dotless}ǧ earthquake on 8 March 2010, followed a seismic quiescence starting about 5 years before the main shock. Thus, special interest should be given to the other regions where the seismic quiescence is observed.