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- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Seismic potential in and around the Muş basin (Eastern Türkiye): Insights from stress analysis and statistical modeling; [Muş havzası (Doğu Türkiye) ve civarındaki deprem potansiyeli: Gerilme analizi ve istatistiksel modellemeden elde edilen çıkarımlar]
Şimşek, Ecenur Cansu; Alkan, Hamdi; Öztürk, Serkan
In this research, current and near-future potential earthquake zones in and around Muş basin (eastern Türkiye) are investigated using the instrumental period earthquake catalog and focal mechanism parameters of local earthquakes. For this purpose, the relationships between the b-value distributions and the Colulomb stress changes are interpreted with different depth ranges (5 to 25 km). Also, for a reliable prediction, the occurrence probabilities, recurrence periods of earthquakes, and the Z-value distribution (seismic quiescence areas) are taken into consideration. 15,722 earthquakes with moment magnitudes with 0.8≤Mw≤6.9 between the latitudes of 38.2°N-39.6°N and longitudes of 40.0°E-43.0°E, over a period of ~90.63 years between November 12, 1934, and June 30, 2025, are used for all statistical analyses. Completeness magnitude, Mc-value is accepted as 2.5±0.5. The b-value is determined to be 0.780 ± 0.04, which is smaller than the average (b = 1.0). Additionally, twenty local events with magnitudes greater than Mw≥4.8 are selected to image the Coulomb stress changes. The occurrence probabilities of earthquakes with Mw=5.5, 6.5, and 6.9 in 10 years are predicted as ~83%, ~27% and ~15%, respectively. Recurrence periods of events with these magnitudes are estimated as ~13, ~32, and ~63 years, respectively. Large Z-values are detected in the Kargapazarı segment, Bingöl province, and west of the Kulp and Kozluk segments. Additionally, the analyses of b-value and Coulomb stress change used for hazard prediction reveal a decreasing b-value and an increasing stress change around the Karlıova Triple Junction at a depth of approximately 10 km. Finally, these seismotectonic parameters can represent the possible locations for earthquake occurrences in the near future.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2025Spatial and temporal analysis of seismicity and seismotectonic parameters in Albania region
Ormeni, Rrapo; Öztürk, Serkan; Silo, Erald; Bozo, Rrezart; Hoxha, Ismail; Mucaj, Dionald
A comprehensive analysis of b-value for the Albanian earthquakes was conducted using the instrumental earthquake catalogue of Albanian region. A total of 38,816 seismic events with magnitudes ML> 0.1 on the Richter scale were utilized. Statistical characteristics of the seismicity were examined based on b-value, as defined by the Gutenberg-Richter law. Considering the magnitude completeness (Mc-value) as 2.7, b-value was estimated as 1.09 ± 0.08 and it indicates a normal stress regime in the region. The Mc-value varies from 1.5 to 3.4, and spatial distribution of b-value ranges from 0.79 to 1.16. Higher b-values (> 1.0) were detected in the southernmost part of Albania, whereas lower b-values (< 1.0) were found in the western part, particularly within the Adriatic-Ionian fault zone and the Lushnje-Elbasan-Dibër transversal fault zone, as well as in the south-eastern Leskovik-Erseka-Korça fault zone. Regions with lower b-values correspond to areas with larger-magnitude events, while higher b-values are associated with smaller earthquakes. These findings suggest that b-values across Albania generally round 1.0, with lower values indicating moderate stress accumulation in the western region and within two other active seismic belts. The b-values less than 1.0 may signal areas of increased seismic potential. The occurrence probability of earthquakes across varying magnitudes was found to be very high (99%-100%) for seismic events with ML between 0.5 and 4.5, and lower (less than 95%) for events with ML > 5.5; it varied from 1% to 60% for events with larger ML > 6.0 for different Tr values. Recurrence periods for smaller magnitudes are relatively short (less than 1 year for magnitudes from 1.0 to 4.2), whereas for larger magnitudes (5.0 to 6.0), recurrence periods are longer, about 100 years. The Albanian region is characterized by a complex geological setting and significant seismic activity, and, thus, it can be stated that these types of analyses may be important in terms of seismotectonic evaluation and seismic hazard.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2025September 25, 2024 Yumrukaya-Tatvan (Bitlis, Türkiye) earthquake and a seismo-tectonic evaluation of its impact on the earthquake hazard in the region; [25 Eylül 2024 Yumrukaya-Tatvan (Bitlis, Türkiye) depremi ve bölgedeki deprem tehlikesine etkisi üzerine sismo-tektonik bir değerlendirme]
Öztürk, Serkan; Alkan, Hamdi
The current and future earthquake hazard in and around Bitlis were tired to reveal by utilizing the September 25, 2024, Yumrukaya-Tatvan earthquake (Mw=4.5) and its aftershocks, b-value and Z-value distributions, occurrence probabilities and recurrence periods of earthquakes and variations in Coulomb stress within the scope of this study. Also, it was tried to determine which fault systems in the study area is related to the Yumrukaya-Tatvan mainshock, characterized by strike-slip faulting. b-value in G-R relation was computed as 0.84∓0.06 and small b-values (<1.0) were imaged in the north-northwest-southeast directions throughout the South East Anatolian Thrust Zone and Muş Fault Zone, and west of Lake Van. At the beginning of 2025, significant seismic quiescence was observed near the Muş Fault Zone and the south and southeast of the South East Anatolian Thrust Zone. Recurrence periods for the events with the magnitudes of Mw=5.0, 5.5 and 6.2 were computed as ~10, ~26 and ~100 years, respectively. Additionally, occurrence probabilities of earthquakes with these magnitudes in the intermediate-term (~10 years) were calculated as ~64%, ~32% and ~10%, respectively. Positive Coulomb stress changes carry out a movement from the Kavakbaşı Fault zone in the west and the Beğendik segment in the east toward the South East Anatolian Thrust Zone in the east-southeast. In this region, there is no active fault/fault system according to the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration. Thus, these findings are significant clues showing that multiple parameter seismo-tectonic analyses are important in determining the earthquake hazard for the September 25, 2024 earthquake, and that regions with small b-values and seismic quiescence and regions with positive Coulomb stress changes may indicate current hazard and possible earthquake zones in the future.