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- MakaleYalnız künye2023Scopus SJRQ3MODELING DISEASE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS WITH RANDOM DATA AND HEAVY TAILED RANDOM EFFECTS: THE ZIKA CASE
Bekiryazici, Z.; Kesemen, T.; Merdan, M.; Khaniyev, T.
In this study, we investigate a compartmental model of Zika Virus transmission under random effects. Random effects enable the analysis of random numerical characteristics of transmission, which cannot be modeled through deterministic equations. Data obtained from Zika studies in the literature are used along with heavy tailed random effects to obtain new random variables for the parameters of the deterministic model. Finally, simulations of the model are carried out to analyze the random dynamics of Zika Virus transmission. Deterministic results are compared with results from the simulations of the random system to underline the advantages of a random modeling approach. It is shown that the random model provides additional results for disease transmission dynamics such as results for standard deviation and coefficients of variation, making it a valuable alternative to deterministic modeling. Random results suggest around 90% - 120% coefficient of variation for the random model underlining the fact that the randomness should not be ignored for the transmission of this disease.
AtıfScopus2WoS2İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2022Scopus SJRQ4A MODIFICATION OF APPROXIMATE RANDOM CHARACTERISTICS FOR A MODEL OF ZIKA VIRUS TRANSMISSION
Bekiryazici, Zafer; Kesemen, Tulay; Merdan, Mehmet; Khaniyev, Tahir
In this study, a theoretical model of Zika virus transmission is investigated with random parameters. The parameters of a deterministic model are transformed to random variables to obtain a system of random differential equations. The approximate solutions of the model are analyzed with modified random differential transformation method. It is seen that modified random differential transformation method performs better than random differential transformation method on long time intervals
AtıfOpenAlex1İncele - MakaleAçık Erişim2018Scopus SJRQ4ANALYZING THE DYNAMICS OF EBOLA TRANSMISSION WITH RANDOM EFFECTS
Merdan, Mehmet; Bekiryazici, Zafer; Kesemen, Tulay; Khaniyev, Tahir
In this study, a deterministic mathematical model of Ebola transmission is analyzed under random ef-fects. A recent compartmental model of Berge et al. incorporates both direct and indirect transmission in the model. We assume the parameters of this model are normally distributed random variables to investigate the random behavior of disease transmission. Random differential transformation method is used to obtain the ap-proximate expectation of disease recovery. Furthermore, the approximation for expected recovery is modified by using Laplace-Padé method. Comparison of results indicate that the Laplace-Padé modification provides a better approximation. We also interpret the long term random behavior of the disease dynamics using simulation results.
AtıfScopus3WoS2OpenAlex3İncele - BildiriYalnız künye2018Generalized beta parameters for a SVEIR-type random model of Polio transmission
Bekiryazici, Zafer; Merdan, Mehmet; Kesemen, Tulay; Tosun, M.
In this study, a SVEIR-type compartmental model of Poliomyelitis transmission is examined under random effects. We introduce Generalized Beta and normal distributed random parameters into the equation system to investigate the random dynamics of the disease. The approximate analytical solution of the model under random effects is obtained by using Random Differential Transformation Method (RDTM). Results from simulations and RDTM are analyzed to comment on the randomness of the compartments and disease transmission. It is seen that the random model successfully provides similar results that can be obtained through the deterministic model while providing additional information on the random behavior of the disease, such as the standard deviations and the variation coefficients.
AtıfScopus1WoS1İncele