Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
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- MakaleYalnız künye2026The Trend of Monthly Mean Streamflow Values and Regimes in the Susurluk Basin (Türkiye) with Mountain and Semi-Arid Climates
Yıldız, Mehmet Berkant; Toğrul, Burçe; Kankal, Murat; Akçay, Fatma; Şan, Murat; Nacar, Sinan
This study diagnoses monthly trends in streamflow magnitude and regime for the Susurluk Basin (Türkiye), which spans semi-arid and mountainous sub-climates. Monthly records from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed at 14 stream gauges and nine precipitation stations. Trends are assessed with the Mann–Kendall (MK) test alongside recent graphical approaches, Improved Visualization for Innovative Trend Analyses (IV-ITA) to resolve value class-based (low/high) behavior, and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) with the Star Concept to quantify intra-annual transitions. Before the trend analyses, the stations were tested to determine whether their values were homogeneous, and any inhomogeneous stations were excluded from the study. The consistency between the trends of nine precipitation stations and the streamflow data in the basin was analyzed. Across the basin, the average streamflow increased by approximately 40–60% between January and March at many measurement points. However, it then decreased by around 80% in April, albeit at a more moderate rate in December. This suggests significant rebalancing occurred during the December–April period, when most of the annual streamflow occurs. IV-ITA exhibits broadly similar trends for both low and high streamflow classes, with notable exceptions in January–February. Precipitation–streamflow trend directions are largely consistent in the high-flow season (December–April), supporting the notion that climatic control influences the detected shifts. To contextualize these signals, basin-wide land-use/land-cover shifts (1990–2018), notably urban growth, forest expansion, and cropland reconfiguration, provide process context, indicating that a larger fraction of rainfall is routed as fast surface runoff while infiltration and base streamflow recharge decline, alongside seasonally modified water demand. Collectively, the MK+IV-ITA+IPTA framework reveals class-specific and intra-annual dynamics that are obscured by monolithic tests alone and provides decision-relevant evidence for allocation, drought–flood risk, and operations in an intensively managed basin.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2026Assessment of Atmospheric Acidifying Pollutant Trends and Their Potential Impact on Aquatic Carbon Stability in a Semi-Arid Basin: The Case of Konya
Tona, Aziz Uğur; Demir, Vahdettin
The behavior of the carbon cycle within the Land-Ocean Aquatic Continuum (LOAC) is shaped not only by aquatic processes but also by chemical interactions occurring at the atmosphere–water interface. In particular, the transport of acid rain precursors such as SO2 and NOx to surface waters via deposition can alter the water’s pH balance, thereby affecting Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) fractions and CO2 emission potential. In this study, air quality measurements from three monitoring stations (Bosna, Karatay, and Meram) in Konya province of Türkiye, along with precipitation and temperature data from a representative meteorological station for the period 2021–2023, were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall Trend Test. Additionally, seasonal pH values of groundwater were examined, and their trends were compared with those of the other variables. The findings reveal striking differences on a station basis. At the Bosna station, while NO (Z = 10.80), NO2 (Z = 9.47), and NOx (Z = 10.04) showed strong increasing trends, O3 decreased significantly (Z = −15.14). At the Karatay station, significant increasing trends were detected for CO (Z = 10.01), PM10 (Z = 8.59), SO2 (Z = 5.55), and NOx (Z = 2.44), whereas O3 exhibited a negative trend (Z = −6.54). At the Meram station, a significant decrease was observed in CO (Z = −11.63), while NO2 showed an increasing trend (Z = 3.03). Analysis of meteorological series indicated no significant trend in precipitation (Z = −0.04), but a distinct increase in temperature (Z = 2.90, p < 0.01). These findings suggest that the increasing NOx load in the Konya atmosphere accelerates O3 consumption and, combined with rising temperatures, creates a potential for change in the carbon chemistry of aquatic systems. The results demonstrate that atmospheric pollutant trends constitute an indirect but significant pressure factor on the aquatic carbon cycle in semi-arid regions and highlight the necessity of integrating atmospheric processes into carbon budget analyses within the scope of LOAC.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2022Innovative polygon trend analyses with star graph for rainfall and temperature data in agricultural regions of Turkey
Acar, Emine; Kankal, Murat; Akçay, Fatma; Şan, Murat
Agriculture is affected by climate change, such as extreme increases or decreases rainfall and temperature patterns. It is possible to research that effect by using trend analysis methodologies. This paper investigates trends of monthly total rainfall and mean temperature data of nine selected stations from agricultural regions of Turkey between 1969 and 2020. To the end, the classical Mann–Kendall, Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST), and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) with Star Graph methods providing the opportunity to examine seasonal behavior were used for trend analysis. The analysis reveals that about 96% of all monthly rainfall in the Mann-Kendall test has no trend. However, nearly all stations tend to decrease (increase) in November (September) in both innovative approaches. For temperature, it is seen that increasing trend or no trend dominated in general. There were increasing trends in the innovative approaches throughout the year except for April. Temperatures have increased significantly throughout the year in all regions over the last decades. With the help of IPTA, it was also concluded that the seasonal internal variability of rainfall over the entire time and in the last 30 years is quite complex and persists in all agricultural regions. The results show that irregular changes in rainfall and rising temperatures in all stations negatively affected crop yield and/or required more irrigation. In addition, according to the results obtained by comparing trend methods, innovative approaches are very insistent on determining of trend and provide additional information through a visual review of trend behaviors.