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- MakaleYalnız künye2022Investigation of the Relationship among Fault Types, Focal Depths, and Ionospheric TEC Anomalies before Large Earthquakes between 2000 and 2020
Ulukavak, Mustafa; Yalçinkaya, Mualla; Kayikçi, Emine Tanir; Öztürk, Serkan; Kandemir, Raif; Karsli, Hakan
In this study, the relationships between possible ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies and earthquake focal depths and fault types were investigated using 3,099 global earthquakes with Mw >= 6.0 between 2000 and 2020. The relationship between the ionospheric TEC changes and earthquakes has been previously discussed in the literature. However, very few studies have examined the relationship between the focal depths and the fault types of these earthquakes. In general, three indices, namely the disturbance storm-time index (Dst), the planetary geomagnetic activity index (Kp), and the solar flux (F10.7), are used to characterize the space weather conditions (SWC) that affect TEC anomalies and to identify the active/quiet days for future earthquakes. In this study, 13 different indices were used: indices that measured solar activity included proton flux (Pf) at six different energy levels, F10.7, and extreme ultraviolet (EUV0.1-50 nm and EUV26-34 nm). Meanwhile, geomagnetic storm indices included Dst, Kp, the z-component of the magnetic field index (Bz), and proton density (P-d). By using the ionospheric TEC values derived from global ionosphere maps (GIM-TEC), both negative and positive ionospheric TEC anomalies were observed for 15 days before and 4 days after the earthquakes using a statistical analysis technique that involved a 15-day moving median. The earthquakes were grouped according to their fault types (normal, thrust, and strike-slip) and focal depths (shallow, intermediate, and deep). Their relationships with the negative and positive TEC anomalies in the quiet days before the earthquake were examined. Negative and positive anomalies were observed approximately 3-12 days before earthquakes that occurred on normal faults, approximately 5-8 days before earthquakes that occurred on thrust faults, and approximately 1-12 days before earthquakes that occurred on strike-slip faults. The average TEC anomaly changes were calculated to be 43.4% total electron content unit (TECU) for normal faults, 44.8% TECU for thrust faults, and 41.3% TECU for strike-slip faults. Positive anomaly values were exhibited by larger earthquakes on normal and thrust faults, whereas negative anomaly values tended to occur on strike-slip faults. Negative and positive TEC anomalies were detected around 3-12 days before shallow earthquakes, around 1-13 days before intermediate-depth earthquakes, and around 1-12 days before deep earthquakes. The average TEC anomaly changes were calculated to be 44.4% TECU for shallow earthquakes, 43.3% TECU for intermediate-depth earthquakes, and 42.6% TECU for deep earthquakes. Positive anomaly values were also found to be higher than the negative anomaly values in each group. We propose that there is a relationship between the ionospheric TEC anomalies that occur before large earthquakes and their fault types and focal depths. (C) 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
- MakaleYalnız künye2020Analysis of ionospheric TEC anomalies for global earthquakes during 2000-2019 with respect to earthquake magnitude (Mw≥6.0)
Ulukavak, Mustafa; Yalçınkaya, Mualla; Kayıkçı, Emine Tanır; Öztürk, Serkan; Kandemir, Raif; Karslı, Hakan
In this work, a relationship between ionospheric TEC anomalies and different earthquake magnitude groups before the main shocks was investigated. For this purpose, 2942 global earthquakes with Mw≥6 from 2000 to 2019 and possible ionospheric TEC anomalies that occurred before earthquakes were examined by considering 13 different index values of space weather conditions (geomagnetic storm indices and solar activity indices). Anomalies of ionospheric TEC changes were defined for 15-days before and 4-days after the earthquakes by using 15-days moving median method with the length of 15 days. Earthquakes were first grouped according to their magnitudes, and then negative and positive TEC anomalies in quiet days before the earthquakes were detected. These anomalies were observed as ∼5–13, ∼5-10, ∼5-15, ∼3-13, ∼7-15, ∼1 and ∼5-8 days ago for the earthquakes of 6.0 ≤ Mw<6.5, 6.5 ≤ Mw<7.0, 7.0 ≤ Mw<7.5, 7.5 ≤ Mw<8.0, 8.0 ≤ Mw<8.5, 8.5 ≤ Mw<9.0, and 9.0 ≤ Mw<9.5, respectively. Mean of changes in TEC anomalies of these groups is 44.2 % TECU and we detected that the number of positive anomalies in each group is larger than the number of negative anomalies. Consequently, these analyses clearly show that the day-to-day changes in TEC anomalies may supply significant precursors prior to the global earthquakes (M ≥ 6) in the short-term earthquake prediction for main shocks.