Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yazarlar
- Akçay, Fatma(2)
- Kankal, Murat(2)
- Şan, Murat(2)
- Nacar, Sinan(1)
Yayınlar
- MakaleYalnız künye2023Annual Trends of Precipitation and Temperature in the Northwestern Part of Turkey Using Innovative Approaches: A Holistic and Partial Study
Akçay, Fatma; Şan, Murat; Nacar, Sinan; Kankal, Murat
Trend analysis benefits collecting and analyzing reliable data in climate change studies. In this context, long-term temperature and precipitation data analysis, two variables sensitive to climate change, is essential. This study aims to holistically and partially determine the annual trends of precipitation and temperature time series for 1970–2019 at nine selected stations in the Susurluk Basin, Turkey. The innovative trend significance test (ITST), innovative crossing trend analysis (ICTA) method, and Mann-Kendall (MK) test were used to determine holistic trends. Also, partial trends were determined using successive average methodology (SAM). For the precipitation variable, while an increasing trend was determined for the ITST, there was mostly no trend for the other methods. While a strong increasing trend was detected for the temperature according to the ITST and MK methods, no trend was observed in any station according to the ICTA method. According to the SAM results, the maximum trend durations for the peak and trough change points were 4.9 (10.3) and 5.3 (8.4) years, respectively, for precipitation (temperature). The strong temperature trends in the basin will likely continue, requiring precautions against extreme events such as drought.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2022Innovative approaches to the trend assessment of streamflows in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey
Akçay, Fatma; Kankal, Murat; Şan, Murat
The issue of detection of hydrometeorological trends remains relevant because of the importance of climate change in design, operation, and management studies related to water resources. This study examines the effects of changes in climate and land use on monthly flows (1962–2018) in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey, using innovative trend analysis methods. In this context, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) and innovative trend significance test (ITST) were used to detect the trends and compared with Mann-Kendall test. Only stations with homogeneous data that did not experience non-climatic changes are used in the analysis. IPTA and ITST approaches are much more sensitive than Mann-Kendall in detecting trends. Although the innovative methods are mostly compatible with each other (90%), IPTA presents additional information about trend transitions between successive parts of time series. Results indicate significant decreasing trends in summer months, likely due to diminishing precipitation and effective evaporation.