Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
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- MakaleYalnız künye2023Trend analysis of precipitation using innovative approaches in northwestern Turkey
Körük, Ali Emre; Kankal, Murat; Yıldız, Mehmet Berkant; Akçay, Fatma; Şan, Murat; Nacar, Sinan
Precipitation is highly sensitive to climate change, and monitoring its trends over time is essential for understanding the effects of global warming on the Earth's water cycle. This study investigates the effects of climate change on monthly precipitation in the Susurluk Basin located in northwestern Turkey, using innovative trend analysis methods. Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) using star graphics and Improved Visualization for Innovative Trend Analysis (IV-ITA) techniques were used to analyze precipitation data from nine stations in the basin over 50 years (1970–2019), and the findings were compared to classical Mann-Kendall (MK) results. According to the trend analysis results, the MK method detected significant trends in only two months in the decreasing direction. In these decreasing trends observed at Simav and Keles stations in November, z values were calculated as −2.38 and −2.05, respectively. IPTA method detected increasing trends in 54 months and decreasing trends in 40 months; this means there is a change of more than 5% between two half series. The IV-ITA method indicated an increase of more than 40% in the low values for January, March, August, and September. In addition, there was an increasing trend of more than 40% in the high values observed in September at all stations. It was observed that mean precipitation heights increased from September to December and then decreased throughout the basin. It is predicted that decreases in precipitation during dry seasons may put intense pressure on agricultural water use and affect water quality. In addition, the increase in precipitation in spring months may increase flood events. It was determined that graphical innovative trend analysis methods are more effective in trend identification than MK, and these methods' results have much higher visual inspection and linguistic interpretation possibilities. Innovative methods allow for more flexible and in-depth analysis using different statistical parameters.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2022Innovative approaches to the trend assessment of streamflows in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey
Akçay, Fatma; Kankal, Murat; Şan, Murat
The issue of detection of hydrometeorological trends remains relevant because of the importance of climate change in design, operation, and management studies related to water resources. This study examines the effects of changes in climate and land use on monthly flows (1962–2018) in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey, using innovative trend analysis methods. In this context, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) and innovative trend significance test (ITST) were used to detect the trends and compared with Mann-Kendall test. Only stations with homogeneous data that did not experience non-climatic changes are used in the analysis. IPTA and ITST approaches are much more sensitive than Mann-Kendall in detecting trends. Although the innovative methods are mostly compatible with each other (90%), IPTA presents additional information about trend transitions between successive parts of time series. Results indicate significant decreasing trends in summer months, likely due to diminishing precipitation and effective evaporation.