Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yazarlar
- Kankal, Murat(2)
- Nacar, Sinan(2)
- Okkan, Umut(2)
- Şan, Murat(2)
- Maden, Nafiz(1)
Yayınlar
- MakaleYalnız künye2024Innovative Polygonal Trend Analysis (IPTA) in detecting the seasonal trend behavior of statistically downscaled precipitation for the Eastern Black Sea Basin of Turkey
Nacar, Sinan; Şan, Murat; Kankal, Murat; Okkan, Umut
This study compares projected and past seasonal precipitation trends in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey. Historical data from twelve stations representing the basin during 1981–2010 was used, while statistically downscaled data from two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) outputs of the GFDL-ESM2M general circulation model were utilized for 2021–2050. To determine the seasonal trend behaviors of precipitation variables and transitions between consecutive months, the Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) was implemented. Furthermore, the star concept was employed to illustrate the changing sizes between consecutive periods. Both scenarios showed considerable summer and autumn declines at almost all locations, with low seasonal precipitation variability. These scenarios indicated January to be the important month for trend shift, except for Rize, Pazar, and Hopa stations. The formation of several polygons, polygons intersecting, and polygons not forming on the global regression line show that the hydro-climatic cycle might be chaotic.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2024Trends and amount changes of temperature and precipitation under future projections in high–low groups and intra-period for the Eastern Black Sea, the Wettest Basin in Türkiye
Nacar, Sinan; Şan, Murat; Kankal, Murat; Okkan, Umut
This study investigates the possible effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation variables in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Türkiye’s wettest and flood-prone region. The outputs of three GCMs under historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to regional scale using the multivariate adaptive regression splines method. The future monthly temperature and precipitation for 12 stations in the basin were projected for three periods: the 2030s (2021–2050), 2060s (2051–2080), and 2090s (2081–2100). In addition to relative changes, high and low groups and intra-period trends were analyzed for the first time using innovative methods. For the pessimistic scenario, an increase of 3.5 °C in the interior and 3.0 °C in the coastal areas of the basin is projected. For the optimistic scenario, these values are expected to be 2.5 and 2.0 °C, respectively. A decrease in precipitation is projected for the interior region, and a significant increase is expected for the eastern and coastal areas of the basin, especially in spring. This result indicates that floods will occur frequently coastal areas of the basin in the coming periods. Also, although the monotonic trends of temperatures during periods are higher than precipitation in interior regions, these regions may have more uncertainty as their trends are in different directions of low and high groups of different scenarios and GCMs and contribute to all trends, especially precipitation.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2013Geothermal structure of the eastern Black Sea basin and the eastern Pontides orogenic belt: Implications for subduction polarity of Tethys oceanic lithosphere
Maden, Nafiz
The numerical results of thermal modeling studies indicate that the lithosphere is cold and strong beneath the Black Sea basin. The thermal lithospheric thickness increases southward from the eastern Pontides orogenic belt (49.4 km) to Black Sea basin (152.2 km). The Moho temperature increases from 367 C in the trench to 978 C in the arc region. The heat flow values for the Moho surface change between 16.4 mW m-2 in the Black Sea basin and 56.9 mW m-2 in the eastern Pontides orogenic belt. Along the southern Black Sea coast, the trench region has a relatively low geothermal potential with respect to the arc and back-arc region. The numerical studies support the existence of southward subduction beneath the Pontides during the late Mesozoic-Cenozoic.