Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
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- MakaleYalnız künye2026The Trend of Monthly Mean Streamflow Values and Regimes in the Susurluk Basin (Türkiye) with Mountain and Semi-Arid Climates
Yıldız, Mehmet Berkant; Toğrul, Burçe; Kankal, Murat; Akçay, Fatma; Şan, Murat; Nacar, Sinan
This study diagnoses monthly trends in streamflow magnitude and regime for the Susurluk Basin (Türkiye), which spans semi-arid and mountainous sub-climates. Monthly records from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed at 14 stream gauges and nine precipitation stations. Trends are assessed with the Mann–Kendall (MK) test alongside recent graphical approaches, Improved Visualization for Innovative Trend Analyses (IV-ITA) to resolve value class-based (low/high) behavior, and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) with the Star Concept to quantify intra-annual transitions. Before the trend analyses, the stations were tested to determine whether their values were homogeneous, and any inhomogeneous stations were excluded from the study. The consistency between the trends of nine precipitation stations and the streamflow data in the basin was analyzed. Across the basin, the average streamflow increased by approximately 40–60% between January and March at many measurement points. However, it then decreased by around 80% in April, albeit at a more moderate rate in December. This suggests significant rebalancing occurred during the December–April period, when most of the annual streamflow occurs. IV-ITA exhibits broadly similar trends for both low and high streamflow classes, with notable exceptions in January–February. Precipitation–streamflow trend directions are largely consistent in the high-flow season (December–April), supporting the notion that climatic control influences the detected shifts. To contextualize these signals, basin-wide land-use/land-cover shifts (1990–2018), notably urban growth, forest expansion, and cropland reconfiguration, provide process context, indicating that a larger fraction of rainfall is routed as fast surface runoff while infiltration and base streamflow recharge decline, alongside seasonally modified water demand. Collectively, the MK+IV-ITA+IPTA framework reveals class-specific and intra-annual dynamics that are obscured by monolithic tests alone and provides decision-relevant evidence for allocation, drought–flood risk, and operations in an intensively managed basin.
- MakaleYalnız künye2023Annual Trends of Precipitation and Temperature in the Northwestern Part of Turkey Using Innovative Approaches: A Holistic and Partial Study
Akçay, Fatma; Şan, Murat; Nacar, Sinan; Kankal, Murat
Trend analysis benefits collecting and analyzing reliable data in climate change studies. In this context, long-term temperature and precipitation data analysis, two variables sensitive to climate change, is essential. This study aims to holistically and partially determine the annual trends of precipitation and temperature time series for 1970–2019 at nine selected stations in the Susurluk Basin, Turkey. The innovative trend significance test (ITST), innovative crossing trend analysis (ICTA) method, and Mann-Kendall (MK) test were used to determine holistic trends. Also, partial trends were determined using successive average methodology (SAM). For the precipitation variable, while an increasing trend was determined for the ITST, there was mostly no trend for the other methods. While a strong increasing trend was detected for the temperature according to the ITST and MK methods, no trend was observed in any station according to the ICTA method. According to the SAM results, the maximum trend durations for the peak and trough change points were 4.9 (10.3) and 5.3 (8.4) years, respectively, for precipitation (temperature). The strong temperature trends in the basin will likely continue, requiring precautions against extreme events such as drought.
- MakaleYalnız künye2023Seismic Hazard Implications in and Around the Yedisu Seismic Gap (Eastern Türkiye) Based on Coulomb Stress Changes, b-Values, and S-wave Velocity
Alkan, Hamdi; Öztürk, Serkan; Akkaya, İsmail
The Yedisu Seismic Gap is one of the most important seismic gaps throughout the North Anatolian Fault Zone since it has not produced destructive earthquakes for a long time. To analyze the characteristics of future seismic hazards, the interrelationships between seismotectonic b-values, Coulomb stress changes, and S-wave velocity models of crust are presented in and around the Yedisu Seismic Gap located northwest of the Karlıova Triple Junction. For this purpose, the most up-to-date earthquake catalog and the focal mechanism solutions of recent earthquakes are used to image the different depth intervals. Results show that the relatively positive stresses are accumulating along the Varto Fault Zone and Kargapazarı and Yedisu Segments between 5 and 15 km depth intervals. At the same time, the lower b-values between 0.6 and 1.0 are found in the same segments. However, in the volcanic regions around the Karlıova Triple Junction, the low S-wave velocity zones may be related to high b-values, negative stress changes, and volcanic structures. The region between the Turnadağ volcano and the Varto caldera shows scattered stress and b-value changes in the upper crust. Moreover, the probability of earthquakes for Mw = 6.0, 7.0, and 7.7 in the intermediate term (10 years) is estimated as ~ 65%, ~ 17%, and ~ 5%, respectively. Recurrence of earthquakes with Mw = 6.0, 7.0, and 7.7 are calculated as ~ 10, ~ 55, and ~ 187 years, respectively. Consequently, the regions characterized by low strong b-values and positive stress loading reveal high earthquake hazard potential on the whole in the next decade.
- DüzeltmeAçık Erişim2021Correction to: Crustal Contamination of Tertiary Volcanic Rocks: Evidence from K, U, Th and Radiogenic Heat Production Data in Eastern Pontides (NE Turkey) (Pure and Applied Geophysics, (2021), 178, 5, (1871-1888), 10.1007/s00024-021-02739-6)
Maden, Nafiz; Akaryalı, Enver; Aydınçakır, Emre
In the original version of this paper the captions of figures 5, 6 and 7 were inadvertently interchanged.
- MakaleYalnız künye2021Crustal Contamination of Tertiary Volcanic Rocks: Evidence from K, U, Th and Radiogenic Heat Production Data in Eastern Pontides (NE Turkey)
Maden, Nafiz; Akaryalı, Enver; Aydınçakır, Emre
Herein, we present new 238U, 232Th, and 40K radionuclide concentrations, density and radiogenic heat production (RHP) data on the Tertiary volcanic rocks outcropping in Borçka, Gumushane and Trabzon regions within the Eastern Pontide Orogenic Belt (EPOB). The mean K values for Trabzon, Borçka and Gümüşhane regions were 2.19 ± 0.87%, 0.90 ± 0.70% and 0.59 ± 0.25%, respectively, the mean U values for Trabzon, Borçka and Gümüşhane regions were 2.12 ± 0.76 ppm and 1.29 ± 0.68 ppm and 0.90 ± 0.32 ppm, and the average Th values were calculated as 6.54 ± 2.32 ppm, 2.49 ± 1.93 ppm and 1.33 ± 0.60 ppm for Trabzon, Borçka and Gümüşhane regions, respectively. The average Th/U values are 3.38 ± 1.48 for the Trabzon region, 2.01 ± 1.22 for the Borçka region, and 1.69 ± 1.09 for the Gümüşhane region. Average U/Th values were calculated as 0.35 ± 0.14, 0.71 ± 0.52 and 0.89 ± 0.72 for the Trabzon, Borçka and Gümüşhane regions, respectively. The RHP values were determined as 1.16 ± 0.35 μW m - 3, 0.58 ± 0.33 μW m - 3 and 0.37 ± 0.10 μW m - 3 for Trabzon, Borçka and Gümüşhane regions, respectively. The Tertiary aged rocks in the EPOB that we have examined within this study scope have been derived from an enriched mantle, previously metasomatized by fluids derived from subducted slab. The parental magma of Eocene basaltic rocks was contaminated with crustal material during the ascension of the magma through the crust or in the shallow-level crustal magma chambers.
- DergiPure and Applied Geophysics