Büyüksaraç, Aydin; Senkaya, Mustafa; Alkan, Hamdi; Bektas, Ozcan; Öztürk, Serkan; Pirti, Atinc; Yücel, Mehmet Ali

The Simav Fault Zone (SFZ) in Western Anatolia remains one of the most active tectonic regions in Turkey, and the 2025 S & imath;nd & imath;rg & imath; earthquake swarm has renewed concern regarding evolving seismic hazard. This study analyzes the swarm on the S & imath;nd & imath;rg & imath; Segment using Coulomb stress modelling, spatial distributions of b- and p-value, gravity and magnetic anomalies, geothermal data, and GNSS observations. Coulomb stress calculations show that the M-W = 6.1 and M-W = 6.0 mainshocks produced stress increases of similar to 0.1 bar that effectively loaded adjacent segments of the SFZ, D & uuml;vertepe Fault Zone (DFZ), and Gelenbe Fault Zone (GFZ), guiding the east-southeast and northward migration of aftershocks. Spatial statistics indicate a b-value ranging from 0.6 to 1.3 and a p-value between 0.3 and 1.0. The lower b-values (< 1.0) and p-values (< 0.5) mark high-stress regions near the mainshock, and higher values characterize more stable zones. Gravity anomalies delineate a dense volcanic-ophiolitic body in the southwest and a caldera-like depression south of the SFZ, while magnetic anomalies highlight the structural continuation and interaction of the SFZ with the GFZ. GNSS stations recorded centimetre-to millimetre-scale motions: BAL1 moved similar to 1.34 cm horizontally with minor uplift, DEI1 experienced similar to 1.12 cm displacement with small vertical fluctuations, and KIKA shifted similar to 0.85 cm southwestward with largely stable elevation. Together, these results show that the 2025 swarm was controlled by stress transfer within a mechanically heterogeneous tectonomagmatic system. The identified stress-enhanced corridors along the SFZ and DFZ may act as future nucleation zones, emphasizing the need for sustained monitoring of this evolving fault network.

Senkaya, Mustafa; Alkan, Hamdi; Öztürk, Serkan; Büyüksaraç, Aydın

The 6 February 2023 Mw 7.7–7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence has significantly impacted the East Anatolian Fault zone, including the city of Malatya and its immediate surroundings. In addition to the aftershocks of February 2023, the Mw 5.9 Kale earthquake that occurred on October 16, 2024, further underscores the ongoing seismic activity in the region. This study analyzes the distribution of b-values derived from a comprehensive dataset comprising 14,549 earthquakes and the Coulomb stress variations associated with the aftershocks of the February 2023 sequence and the Kale earthquake. The primary objective of this analysis is to enhance the understanding of the tectonic setting that contributed to the occurrence of the Kale earthquake. The findings indicate that the low b-values and stress transfer through the Pütürge segment toward the unnamed fault near Kale are significant contributing factors to the occurrence of the Kale earthquake. Additionally, positive stress variations from Doğanşehir to Malatya’s city center suggest a potential fault oriented toward the city center that may increase the current earthquake hazard. Furthermore, the distribution of seismic events around Malatya suggests a possible barrier supported by previous magnetic data analysis between Malatya and Kale. Lastly, the observed stress variations for the Kale earthquake indicate the likelihood of upcoming seismic events in both the northeast and southwest directions of the Kale.