Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleYalnız künye2014Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy inference system and the parametric models along the south coasts of the Black Sea
Akpinar, Adem; Özger, Mehmet; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan
Forecasting of sea-state characteristics has a great importance in coastal and ocean engineering studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate performances of Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and several parametric methods in the Black Sea. For this purpose, different fuzzy models with different input combinations were developed for two different wind data sources (TSMS and ECMWF) at two offshore buoy stations. It also aimed to apply several approaches to event-based data sets for wave predictions. Generally, in literature the tendency is to use time series data for wave predictions. In this kind of prediction approach, lagged time series data are taken as inputs and current or future variables are taken as output. In this study, event-based data for each independent storm were extracted from time series data. Simultaneous or concurrent data of wind speed, blowing duration, fetch length and wave characteristics were detected for each single storm. These event data were then used to set up models. The hindcast results were validated with significant wave height and mean wave period data recorded in Hopa and Sinop buoy stations. The performance of developed fuzzy models were also compared with that of four different parametric methods (Wilson, SPM, Jonswap, and CEM methods) applied for two wind data sources at both buoy stations. Finally, it was determined that in the prediction of both wave parameters (H s and T z) the ANFIS models (R = 0.66, squared correlation coefficient, and MAE = 0.37 m, mean absolute error, for the best model in prediction of H s) were more accurate than the parametric methods (R = 0.63 and MAE = 0.75 m for the best model in prediction of H s).
- MakaleYalnız künye2012The total electricity energy production of the world, European Union, and Turkey: Projections and comparison
Akpinar, A.; Tavşan, F.; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan; Filiz, M.H.; Kaygusuz, K.
This study aims to forecast the world's, European Union's (EU), and Turkey's electricity energy generation until 2030. For this purpose, the electricity energy sector of the world, EU, and Turkey was overviewed from past to present. The total electricity energy generation for the world, EU, and Turkey were then modelled by using historical energy generation data as years with regression analysis. Data from 1970 to 2004 for Turkey and data from 1980 to 2004 for the world and EU were used for the projections. Electricity energy productions have been forecasted up to year 2030. According to the results, it is determined that cubic (R2 = 0.997) and linear (R2 = 0.993) models for projection of the world's and EU's electricity energy generation, respectively, is fitness while the quadratic (R2 = 0.996) model fits for the projection of Turkey's total electricity energy generation and Turkey will have 0.995% of the world's electricity energy generation in 2030, while the EU will have 8.41% within the world's electricity energy generation in 2030 if the current trend continues.
- MakaleYalnız künye2012Artificial neural networks for estimation of temporal rate coefficient of equilibrium bar volume
Kankal, Murat; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan; Yüksek, Ömer; Akpinar, Adem
Present study consists the growth of a bar profile caused by cross-shore sediment transport. This is especially on growth of bar volume (V) toward equilibrium bar volume (Veq). Three analysis methods being a power and linear regression analysis (PRA and LRA) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) analysis were performed to determine empirical temporal rate coefficient (α). Forty-two experimental data were used for training set and the rest of the experimental data were used for testing set in the ANN analysis. As the results of analyses, the smallest average relative and root mean square error (RMSE) computed for the ANN methods are 7.578% and 0.029, respectively. It has been obtained that the ANN analysis, which is used for determination of α coefficient, gives reasonable results. Finally, bar volumes were calculated by means of computed α values and compared with the results of experimental data.
- MakaleYalnız künye2012Wave energy potential along the south-east coasts of the Black Sea
Akpinar, Adem; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan
This study aims to assess and characterize wave energy resource along the southeastern coasts of the Black Sea. For this purpose, wave energy potential was investigated at a total of 7 study points in this area. The potential for energy generation was assessed based on six-hourly data from a third generation wave model (SWAN) covering the period 1995-2009. The results were validated with buoy measurements and wave energy and power was calculated with the numerical hindcast data. For characterization of wave energy potential, average annual and seasonal variations of the wave power in this area was firstly investigated. Second, wave energy development indexes and the probabilities of exceedance of wave power at the study points were determined. Third, wave energy resource in different ranges of significant wave heights and zero-crossing periods were characterized. Finally, It was found that annual wave energy of all points except Sinop point, whose annual wave energy is 10 MWh/m, is approximately 6 MWh/m and the bulk of annual wave energy occurs for significant wave heights between 0.5 and 2 m and periods between 2 and 5 s.
- MakaleYalnız künye2012Evaluation of the numerical wave model (SWAN) for wave simulation in the Black Sea
Akpinar, Adem; van Vledder, Gerbrant Ph.; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan; Özger, Mehmet
This study summaries the implementation of the SWAN model forced by the ECMWF ERA Interim dataset reanalyzed 10 m winds over the Black Sea which will be used to study the wind-wave climate and wave energy potential in the region, and its verification. The SWAN model results were compared with directional buoy measurements at three locations along the north and south coasts of the Black Sea, parametric model results based on the JONSWAP growth relations, and the results of previous studies. The SWAN model has been applied in a third generation and non-stationary mode with spherical coordinates. The linear and exponential growth from wind input, depth-induced wave breaking, bottom friction, whitecapping, four-wave (for deep water) and triad-wave (for shallow water) nonlinear interactions have been activated in the simulations. The results of this study indicate that agreement between simulated and observed wave parameters is satisfactory and it is slightly more accurate than the results of the previous studies. However, it still has lower estimates for the maximum values of both wave parameters. These lower estimates are probably due to too low wind speeds in the applied ECMWF wind fields, which is probably caused by orographic effects, and due to the relatively course resolution in time and space of the ECMWF (ERA-Interim) wind fields for the Black Sea. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- Derleme MakaleYalnız künye2011Development of hydropower energy in Turkey: The case of Coruh river basin
Akpinar, Adem; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan; Kankal, Murat
The main objective in doing the present study is to investigate the sustainable development of hydropower plants in the Coruh river basin of Turkey, which is least problem river of Turkey in respect to international cooperation as compared with Turkey's other trans-boundary waters. Initial studies concerning the hydropower production potential in Coruh basin had been carried out by Turkish authorities in the late 1960s. Total installed power capacity and annual average energy generation of 37 dams and run of river (without storage) hydropower plants developed at various project stages by The Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration (EiE) in Coruh basin are 3132.70 MW and 10.55 TWh/yr, respectively. Today, this generation value corresponds 6.45% of Turkey's energy consumption in 2006 while it meets 6.3% of total electricity energy production of Turkey which is equal to 167.9 TINh/yr in 2006. Besides, this potential developed at various project stages in Coruh basin will provide 24.1% of Turkey's hydroelectric energy generation being equal to 43.8 TWh/yr in 2006. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- MakaleYalnız künye2011Modeling and forecasting of Turkey's energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables
Kankal, Murat; Akpinar, Adem; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan; Özşahin, Talat Şükrü
This study deals with the modeling of the energy consumption in Turkey in order to forecast future projections based on socio-economic and demographic variables (gross domestic product-GDP, population, import and export amounts, and employment) using artificial neural network (ANN) and regression analyses. For this purpose, four diverse models including different indicators were used in the analyses. As the result of the analyses, this research proposes Model 2 as a suitable ANN model (having four independent variables being GDP, population, the amount of import and export) to efficiently estimate the energy consumption for Turkey. The proposed model predicted the energy consumption better than the regression models and the other three ANN models. Thus, the future energy consumption of Turkey is calculated by means of this model under different scenarios. The predicted forecast results by ANN were compared with the official forecasts. Finally, it was concluded that all the scenarios that were analyzed gave lower estimates of the energy consumption than the MENR projections and these scenarios also showed that the future energy consumption of Turkey would vary between 117.0 and 175.4. Mtoe in 2014.
- MakaleYalnız künye2011Restructuring of Turkey's electricity market and the share of hydropower energy: The case of the Eastern Black Sea Basin
Uzlu, Ergun; Akpinar, Adem; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan
This paper presents the historical development of Turkey's electricity power sector, the efforts for introducing competition in the power industry in Turkey, and the concerns regarding restructuring in Turkey. The contribution of the hydropower energy potential in Turkey to the reconstruction of the electricity structure in Turkey is also investigated. Then, among the 25 hydrological basins in Turkey, the Eastern Black Sea Basin located in the northeast of Turkey, which has great advantages from the view point of small hydropower potential or hydropower potential without storage, is chosen as the case study to carry out some investigations concerning its potential and to analyze the contribution of the private sector (the corporate body) in regard to the development of hydro potential in this basin within the scope of the 4628 Electricity Market Law. With this law, concerning the restructuring of the electricity market, private sector investments in this segment have increased. In total, 1524 hydroelectric power projects with 22 360 MW installed capacity has been implemented until January 22nd, 2009 and this figure is continuously rising.