Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleAçık Erişim2025Motivating Green Transition: Analyzing Fuel Demands in Turkiye Amidst the Climate Crisis and Economic Impact
Coruh, Emine; Yıldız, Mehmet Selim; Urak, Faruk; Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Cengiz, Vedat
Decarbonizing the transportation sector is critical for sustainable development, particularly in rapidly urbanizing countries like Turkiye. This study analyzes fuel demand elasticities for diesel, gasoline, and LPG across 12 NUTS-1 regions of Turkiye in 2022, using a panel random effects SUR approach. The model accounts for regional variation and fuel interactions, producing robust estimates that uncover significant spatial and temporal differences in consumption patterns. Uniquely, diesel demand displays a significantly positive price elasticity, challenging the conventional assumption of inelasticity. Gasoline demand is moderately price-sensitive, while LPG appears relatively unresponsive. Strong cross-price elasticities—especially between diesel and gasoline—point to substitution effects that can inform more adaptive policy frameworks. Seasonal fluctuations and Istanbul’s outsized impact also shape national trends. These findings underscore the need for differentiated region- and fuel-specific strategies. While higher gasoline taxes may effectively reduce demand, lowering diesel and LPG use will require complementary measures such as infrastructure upgrades, behavioral incentives, and accelerated adoption of alternative fuels. The study advocates for regionally adjusted carbon pricing, removal of implicit subsidies, and targeted support for electric and hybrid vehicles. Aligning fiscal tools with actual demand behavior can enhance both the efficiency and equity of the transition to a low-carbon transportation system.
- MakaleAçık Erişim2024Uncovering the determinants of bottom-up CO2 emissions among households in Türkiye: Analysis and policy recommendations
Coruh, Emine; Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Cengiz, Vedat; Urak, Faruk
Amid escalating global concerns surrounding climate change, the transportation sector has garnered the attention of stakeholders. Double-hurdle censored models were employed in this study to elucidate the relationship between the probability of private fuel expenditure and expenditure levels and household characteristics to determine the factors contributing to household-based CO2 emissions. Remarkably, nearly two-thirds of the 38 factors examined contributed to the emitters, and almost all emitters were identified as statistically significant. This alarming situation underscores the importance of formulating family based green transformation policies. If successful, these policies can ignite transformative momentum. Consequently, understanding household transportation expenditure from a bottom-up perspective can provide invaluable insights into crafting a comprehensive set of top-line policy recommendations for innovation and marketing strategies in the transport and energy sectors. Measures such as incentivizing the adoption of electric vehicles through economic incentives, expanding public transportation networks, and implementing sustainable housing policies have immense potential to effectively reduce private fuel expenditure. When implemented holistically, these strategies can pave the way for a more sustainable and environmentally friendly future.
- MakaleYalnız künye2022The role of household demographic factors in shaping transportation spending in Turkey
Coruh, Emine; Urak, Faruk; Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Yen, Steven T.
Factors at the family scale, for which dynamic decisions and proper investments need to be made at the national level in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, are extremely important for policymakers and investors. We provide information on the roles of how household demographic factors shape transportation patterns and spending in Turkey using the latest survey data collected by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI). Alternative sample selection models are estimated to accommodate censoring in expenditure, and the dependent single-hurdle model is found to be the preferred model as a result of model specification tests. Also, different specification tests conducted, including the error-independence test, resulted in rejection of the null hypothesis. Results suggest that the majority of the household economic and sociodemographic characteristics are important determinants of both the probability and level of transportation expenditure. Policy recommendations to curb carbon emissions and integrate environmentally friendly transport systems throughout the country are presented.
- MakaleYalnız künye2015Accident analysis with the random parameters negative binomial panel count data model
Coruh, Emine; Bilgic, Abdulbaki; Tortum, Ahmet
We analyzed factors affecting the frequency of accident counts in 81 cities over a three-year period (2008-2010) with monthly data using random-parameters negative binomial panel count data models. Among models considered, the random parameters model with the correlated coefficients outperformed the other models and was found to fit the data best with almost a perfect prediction of the conditional mean level. Most of variables used to control for the variation in the frequency of accident counts play crucial role with higher significance levels. Also, marginal effects and elasticity estimates were derived to get more insight into the effects of percent and unit changes in the dependent variable in response to changes in the exogenous variables.