Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Yayınlar
- MakaleYalnız künye2014Türkiye'de hidroelektrik enerjinin gelişiminde özel sektör katkısının irdelenmesi: doğu karadeniz havzası örneği
Satılmış, Uğur; Akpinar, Adem
Bu çalışmada, Türkiyenin kuzey doğusunda DSİ 22. Bölge Müdürlüğü bünyesinde özel sektör ve resmi kurumlar tarafından gerçekleştirilmiş ve gerçekleştirilecek hidroelektrik santral projelerinin şimdiki durumu incelenerek bu projelerin gelecek yıllarda hidroelektrik üretime muhtemel katkıları araştırılmıştır. Ayrıca, bölgedeki santrallerin, Türkiyedeki ulusal ekonomiye katkıları ve Türkiyenin toplam hidroelektrik ve küçük hidroelektrik potansiyellerin değerlendirilme oranları tespit edilmiştir. Çalışılan alanla ilgili yapılmış olan potansiyel belirleme çalışmalarından elde edilen potansiyellerle ilgili bir kıyaslama yapılarak DSİ 22. Bölge Müdürlüğünün faaliyetlerinin potansiyeli ne kadar karşıladığı belirlenmiştir (Akdoğar, 2006; Eroğlu, 2011). Önceki yıllarda Doğu Karadeniz Havzası için yapılan bir çalışmada, bu çalışmanın kapsadığı bazı illerde çalışmanın yapıldığı yılda geliştirilmiş ve geliştirilmekte olan hidroelektrik santrallerin durumu ile şu anki durum kıyaslanarak geçen 4 yıl süredeki gelişmeler irdelenmiştir (Aslan, 2009). Buradan yola çıkılarak 4628 Sayılı Elektrik Piyasası Kanununun ve dolayısıyla özel sektörün ilgi alanındaki hidroelektrik enerji gelişimine katkısı araştırılmıştır.
- MakaleYalnız künye2014Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy inference system and the parametric models along the south coasts of the Black Sea
Akpinar, Adem; Özger, Mehmet; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan
Forecasting of sea-state characteristics has a great importance in coastal and ocean engineering studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate performances of Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and several parametric methods in the Black Sea. For this purpose, different fuzzy models with different input combinations were developed for two different wind data sources (TSMS and ECMWF) at two offshore buoy stations. It also aimed to apply several approaches to event-based data sets for wave predictions. Generally, in literature the tendency is to use time series data for wave predictions. In this kind of prediction approach, lagged time series data are taken as inputs and current or future variables are taken as output. In this study, event-based data for each independent storm were extracted from time series data. Simultaneous or concurrent data of wind speed, blowing duration, fetch length and wave characteristics were detected for each single storm. These event data were then used to set up models. The hindcast results were validated with significant wave height and mean wave period data recorded in Hopa and Sinop buoy stations. The performance of developed fuzzy models were also compared with that of four different parametric methods (Wilson, SPM, Jonswap, and CEM methods) applied for two wind data sources at both buoy stations. Finally, it was determined that in the prediction of both wave parameters (H s and T z) the ANFIS models (R = 0.66, squared correlation coefficient, and MAE = 0.37 m, mean absolute error, for the best model in prediction of H s) were more accurate than the parametric methods (R = 0.63 and MAE = 0.75 m for the best model in prediction of H s).
- MakaleYalnız künye2013The contribution of hydropower in meeting electric energy needs: The case of Turkey
Akpinar, Adem
In this article, an attempt is made to better understand the contribution of hydropower in meeting electric energy needs of Turkey. Thus, a comparison between Turkey and other countries, which have some similarities with Turkey or which are more developed nations compared to Turkey, for evaluating from different aspects the contribution of hydropower in meeting electric energy needs is performed. The producers of electricity and hydroelectricity in the world, and the electric sectors of all the selected countries are firstly examined. Thereafter, Turkey's water resources and its potential, hydropower potential, and current status of hydropower in Turkey are investigated in detail. A detailed discussion regarding economic and energy indicators, hydroelectricity versus thermal electricity, the contributions of hydroelectricity to the total and renewable electricity generation, and the usage status of hydro potential of each selected nation is also made. Finally, it is found that hydropower is the second largest contributor in meeting Turkey's electric energy needs after thermal, mainly natural gas. It is also estimated that the contribution of hydropower will continue because a vast amount of its economically feasible hydro potential (about 64%) is undeveloped. Besides, it is determined that the contribution of hydropower in the total electricity generation in Turkey is greater than that of China and India, but it is lower than that of Norway, Brazil, and Canada.
- MakaleYalnız künye2013Evaluation of wind energy potentiality at coastal locations along the north eastern coasts of Turkey
Akpinar, Adem
This study aims to determine and evaluate wind energy potentiality along coastal locations at the North Eastern of Turkey. For this purpose, the present study has statistically analysed wind power potentials and wind characteristics from six meteorological stations (Sinop, Samsun, Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, and Hopa) along the North Eastern (NE) geo-political coastal region of Turkey using the hourly or 3-hourly wind speed data measured at 10 m height during 9 years. The diurnal, monthly, and seasonal mean wind speed and wind power density at all the stations are assessed to have remarkable variations. The annual and seasonal frequency distributions and dominant wind directions of the all locations are determined. It is observed that the monthly mean wind speed in this region ranges from 1.53 m/s to 4.06 m/s. The maximum annual mean wind power density was found to be 59.96 W/m2 at Sinop while the maximum annual mean wind energy density was obtained to be 525.25 kWh/m2/year at the same station. It is further shown that Sinop, Hopa, and Trabzon have the higher wind power potential than other locations and their potential are close to each other.
- MakaleYalnız künye2013Prediction of offshore bar-shape parameters resulted by cross-shore sediment transport using neural network
Kömü rcü, Murat Ihsan; Kömür, Mehmet Aydin; Akpinar, Adem; Özölçer, Ismail Hakki; Yüksek, Ömer
In order to understand the features of coastal zone and to utilize the coastal areas, it is necessary to determine the sediment movement and the resulting transport. Waves, topographic features, and material properties are known as the most important factors affecting the sediment movement and coastal profiles. In this study, by taking into consideration of wave height and period (H0, T), bed slope (m) and sediment diameter (d50), cross-shore sediment movement was studied in a physical model and various bar-shape parameters of the resultant erosion type profile were determined. Using 80 experimental data which are obtained from physical model studies, a neural network (NN) has been calibrated to predict bar-shape parameters of beach profiles. A sensitivity analysis was firstly carried out to decide data of training and test sets. Four different models, in which the rates of their training and testing set data were 80% and 20%, 70% and 30%, 60% and 40%, 50% and 50% were constituted and their performances were compared. It was determined that the model, in which the rate of its training and testing set data was 80% and 20%, respectively, has the best results. Therefore, a total of 64 experimental data were used as training set and the remainders of the experimental data were used as a testing set for the model. The performance of the NN model was compared with the regression equations developed in a previous study and the equations cited in literature indicating better performance over the equations.
- MakaleYalnız künye2013Assessment of wave energy resource of the Black Sea based on 15-year numerical hindcast data
Akpinar, Adem; Kömürcü, Murat I.hsan
In this study, the existence and variability of wave energy resource potential of the Black Sea based on 15-year hindcast data is described in detail. The hindcasts of wave parameters were carried out by using the third generation wave prediction model (Simulated WAves Nearshore - SWAN), which is one of the most popular numerical wave models and has been widely used for estimating ocean waves. The model was forced with the ECMWF ERA Interim wind fields and applied with a spatial resolution of about 0.0167°. ×. 0.0167° and a model time step of 6. h to resolve efficiently offshore and nearshore wave conditions. The results were presented in the form of charts of the spatial distribution of significant wave height and wave power, on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Annual energy was calculated in the study region with the hindcast data set covering 15. years (1995-2009). The areas with the highest wave energy resource were determined and the south west coasts of the Black Sea are suggested as the best site for the installation of a wave farm. It was determined the western parts of the Black Sea (especially the south-west) are exposed to energetic waves more than the eastern parts.
- MakaleYalnız künye2012Artificial neural networks for estimation of temporal rate coefficient of equilibrium bar volume
Kankal, Murat; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan; Yüksek, Ömer; Akpinar, Adem
Present study consists the growth of a bar profile caused by cross-shore sediment transport. This is especially on growth of bar volume (V) toward equilibrium bar volume (Veq). Three analysis methods being a power and linear regression analysis (PRA and LRA) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) analysis were performed to determine empirical temporal rate coefficient (α). Forty-two experimental data were used for training set and the rest of the experimental data were used for testing set in the ANN analysis. As the results of analyses, the smallest average relative and root mean square error (RMSE) computed for the ANN methods are 7.578% and 0.029, respectively. It has been obtained that the ANN analysis, which is used for determination of α coefficient, gives reasonable results. Finally, bar volumes were calculated by means of computed α values and compared with the results of experimental data.
- MakaleYalnız künye2012Wave energy potential along the south-east coasts of the Black Sea
Akpinar, Adem; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan
This study aims to assess and characterize wave energy resource along the southeastern coasts of the Black Sea. For this purpose, wave energy potential was investigated at a total of 7 study points in this area. The potential for energy generation was assessed based on six-hourly data from a third generation wave model (SWAN) covering the period 1995-2009. The results were validated with buoy measurements and wave energy and power was calculated with the numerical hindcast data. For characterization of wave energy potential, average annual and seasonal variations of the wave power in this area was firstly investigated. Second, wave energy development indexes and the probabilities of exceedance of wave power at the study points were determined. Third, wave energy resource in different ranges of significant wave heights and zero-crossing periods were characterized. Finally, It was found that annual wave energy of all points except Sinop point, whose annual wave energy is 10 MWh/m, is approximately 6 MWh/m and the bulk of annual wave energy occurs for significant wave heights between 0.5 and 2 m and periods between 2 and 5 s.
- MakaleYalnız künye2012Evaluation of the numerical wave model (SWAN) for wave simulation in the Black Sea
Akpinar, Adem; van Vledder, Gerbrant Ph.; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan; Özger, Mehmet
This study summaries the implementation of the SWAN model forced by the ECMWF ERA Interim dataset reanalyzed 10 m winds over the Black Sea which will be used to study the wind-wave climate and wave energy potential in the region, and its verification. The SWAN model results were compared with directional buoy measurements at three locations along the north and south coasts of the Black Sea, parametric model results based on the JONSWAP growth relations, and the results of previous studies. The SWAN model has been applied in a third generation and non-stationary mode with spherical coordinates. The linear and exponential growth from wind input, depth-induced wave breaking, bottom friction, whitecapping, four-wave (for deep water) and triad-wave (for shallow water) nonlinear interactions have been activated in the simulations. The results of this study indicate that agreement between simulated and observed wave parameters is satisfactory and it is slightly more accurate than the results of the previous studies. However, it still has lower estimates for the maximum values of both wave parameters. These lower estimates are probably due to too low wind speeds in the applied ECMWF wind fields, which is probably caused by orographic effects, and due to the relatively course resolution in time and space of the ECMWF (ERA-Interim) wind fields for the Black Sea. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- Derleme MakaleYalnız künye2011Development of hydropower energy in Turkey: The case of Coruh river basin
Akpinar, Adem; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan; Kankal, Murat
The main objective in doing the present study is to investigate the sustainable development of hydropower plants in the Coruh river basin of Turkey, which is least problem river of Turkey in respect to international cooperation as compared with Turkey's other trans-boundary waters. Initial studies concerning the hydropower production potential in Coruh basin had been carried out by Turkish authorities in the late 1960s. Total installed power capacity and annual average energy generation of 37 dams and run of river (without storage) hydropower plants developed at various project stages by The Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administration (EiE) in Coruh basin are 3132.70 MW and 10.55 TWh/yr, respectively. Today, this generation value corresponds 6.45% of Turkey's energy consumption in 2006 while it meets 6.3% of total electricity energy production of Turkey which is equal to 167.9 TINh/yr in 2006. Besides, this potential developed at various project stages in Coruh basin will provide 24.1% of Turkey's hydroelectric energy generation being equal to 43.8 TWh/yr in 2006. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- MakaleYalnız künye2011Modeling and forecasting of Turkey's energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables
Kankal, Murat; Akpinar, Adem; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan; Özşahin, Talat Şükrü
This study deals with the modeling of the energy consumption in Turkey in order to forecast future projections based on socio-economic and demographic variables (gross domestic product-GDP, population, import and export amounts, and employment) using artificial neural network (ANN) and regression analyses. For this purpose, four diverse models including different indicators were used in the analyses. As the result of the analyses, this research proposes Model 2 as a suitable ANN model (having four independent variables being GDP, population, the amount of import and export) to efficiently estimate the energy consumption for Turkey. The proposed model predicted the energy consumption better than the regression models and the other three ANN models. Thus, the future energy consumption of Turkey is calculated by means of this model under different scenarios. The predicted forecast results by ANN were compared with the official forecasts. Finally, it was concluded that all the scenarios that were analyzed gave lower estimates of the energy consumption than the MENR projections and these scenarios also showed that the future energy consumption of Turkey would vary between 117.0 and 175.4. Mtoe in 2014.
- MakaleYalnız künye2011Restructuring of Turkey's electricity market and the share of hydropower energy: The case of the Eastern Black Sea Basin
Uzlu, Ergun; Akpinar, Adem; Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan
This paper presents the historical development of Turkey's electricity power sector, the efforts for introducing competition in the power industry in Turkey, and the concerns regarding restructuring in Turkey. The contribution of the hydropower energy potential in Turkey to the reconstruction of the electricity structure in Turkey is also investigated. Then, among the 25 hydrological basins in Turkey, the Eastern Black Sea Basin located in the northeast of Turkey, which has great advantages from the view point of small hydropower potential or hydropower potential without storage, is chosen as the case study to carry out some investigations concerning its potential and to analyze the contribution of the private sector (the corporate body) in regard to the development of hydro potential in this basin within the scope of the 4628 Electricity Market Law. With this law, concerning the restructuring of the electricity market, private sector investments in this segment have increased. In total, 1524 hydroelectric power projects with 22 360 MW installed capacity has been implemented until January 22nd, 2009 and this figure is continuously rising.