Durmuş, Savaş; Akyol, Hikmet; Ağırkaya, Melahat Batu

This research examined the long and short-term effects of economic growth and financial development on environmental sustainability for the Turkish economy in the period between 1982 and 2022. In this context, he analyzed the effects of social and demographic variables. In the study, the effects of economic growth, financial development, and socio-demographic variables on the load capacity factor (LCF) were estimated using the distributed autoregressive (ARDL) bounds test approach. Our results revealed that economic development for Türkiye is an important determinant of environmental sustainability in both the long and short term. Especially in the long run, economic development promotes environmental sustainability. In this respect, encouraging financial policies supporting economic and environmental sustainability will contribute both to environmental sustainability and to Turkey's sustainable development efforts.

Akyol, Hikmet; Ağırkaya, Melahat Batu

Bu araştırma parasal politikaların bankacılık sektörü sistemik riskleri üzerindeki etkilerini ele almıştır. Bu kapsamda Türk bankacılık sektöründe faaliyet gösteren on bankanın 2012:01-2023:06 arasını kapsayan dönemi Genelleştirilmiş Momentler panel vektör oto-regresyon (GMM-PVAR) modeli kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. GMM-PVAR tahmini sonuçları, bankacılık sektöründeki sistemik risklerin kendi gecikme değerlerinden ve para arzının bir gecikmeli değerinden pozitif yönlü etkilendiğini göstermiştir. Ayrıca sanayi üretim endeksinin iki gecikmeli değerinin sistemik riskler üzerindeki etkisi pozitiftir. Buna karşın para arzının iki gecikmeli, sanayi üretim endeksi ve döviz kurlarının bir gecikmeli değerlerinin sistemik risk endeksi üzerindeki etkileri negatif yönlü bulunmuştur. Araştırmada değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi PVAR-Granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları sistemik risk endeksiyle açıklayıcı değişkenler arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bunun yanında parasal genişleme ile sanayi üretim endeksi ve döviz kurları arasında çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular döviz kurlarından sanayi üretim endeksine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğunu göstermiştir.

Akyol, Hikmet; Ağırkaya, Melahat Batu

The institutions that suffer the most during any crisis or under financial instability are also the ones that contribute the most to the spread and growth of the crisis. As a matter of fact, the 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis revealed the important role of systemic risks in the crisis. In particular, instability in financial institutions and their increasing systemic risks can negatively affect the entire economy and the global system. In this research, the relationship between investor sentiment and systemic risks of the Turkish banking sector was examined. For this purpose, the longterm relationship between the variables was analyzed using the co-integration tests of Kao, Pedroni, Fisher (Johansen), and Westerlund. Co-integration tests have shown that systemic risks and investor sentiment are co-integrated in the long term. In the study, long-term elasticities were examined using dynamic least squares, panel dynamic least squares, and fully modified least squares estimators. The results have shown that systemic risk increases in the long term negatively affect investor sentiment. According to Granger causality test results, there is one-way causality from banking sector systemic risks to investor sentiment. Various political inferences can be made through the findings of this research. Investor sentiment can be used as an important warning system for predicting risks and financial instability toward the Turkish banking sector. Policymakers should take into account investor sentiment when monitoring the stability of the market and implementing policies. Bank managers should take into account investor sentiment in their decisions and projects and avoid high risk-taking behaviors, especially during periods of low investor sentiment.