Öztürk, Serkan; Ghassemi, Mohammad R.; Sarı, Mahmut

In this study, we tried to estimate the optimum linear equations among the parameters associated with different earthquake fault mechanisms for Iranian earthquakes. For this purpose, we tested different curve fitting methods in order to present the most proper empirical relationships between several seismic parameters for different fault systems. In the present paper, 46 large and destructive Iranian earthquakes whose magnitudes change between 5.8 and 7.8 from 1900 to 2014 were used for the analyses. A comparison was made by using four types of curve fitting techniques. The estimation procedures are considered as (1) L2 or Least Squares Regression, (2) L1 or Least Sum of Absolute Deviations Regression, (3) Robust Regression and, (4) Orthogonal Regression. Confidence intervals were selected as 95% for all types of regression relationships. In the selection of the best probability distribution, we considered the correlation coefficients of the linear regressions as a powerful and conceptually simple method. Correlation coefficients of all relationships change between 0.299 and 0.986 with Orthogonal regression, between 0.168 and 0.792 with L1 regression, between 0.059 and 0.829 with Robust regression. For Iranian earthquakes, the most suitable and reliable empirical relationships between moment magnitude (Mw) and surface wave magnitude (Ms), Mw and surface rupture length (SRL), Mw and maximum displacement (MD), and SRL and MD were obtained by Orthogonal regression since it supplies stronger correlation coefficients than those of the other regression techniques in most estimates. The results show that estimated empirical relationships among the different fault parameters by using the Orthogonal regression method can be accepted as more up-to-date and more appropriate in comparison with the other regression norms. Consequently, these equations were suggested as more reliable in the estimation of the maximum surface displacement, maximum surface rupture length and associated with the maximum credible earthquakes for different areas of Iran. Furthermore, obtained relationships can be statistically significant for the assessment of seismic, tectonic and geologic activities, and they can be used to evaluate the rupture hazard of the Iranian Plateau.

Öztürk, S.

In this study, a statistical analysis is carried out to reveal the current earthquake potential in the Eastern Anatolia region of Turkey. For this purpose, a space-time assessing based on the recent changes in Gutenberg-Richter b-value, seismic quiescence Z-value, cumulative moment, annual probability and recurrence time of earthquakes is achieved. Temporal variation of b-value indicates that average b-value decreased from 1.25±0.02 between 2002 and 2010 to 1.08±0.02 between 2011 and 2015. A clear quiescence in the seismic moment in recent years may be a clue foretelling the occurrence of an intense event. Annual probability of the earthquakes between 3.5 and 4.0 magnitude levels exhibits a value equal to and larger than 30. Recurrence time of the earthquakes has a value between 2.0 and 3.0 years for magnitude level of 6.0, and a value between 6.0 and 7.0 years for magnitude level of 7.0. A significant decrease in b-value and clear quiescence anomalies in Z-value at the beginning of 2015 are observed in the several same regions. These areas cover the Central Anatolia Fault Zone, Malatya and Ovacık faults, the southeastern part of the Eastern Anatolia Fault Zone, and the junction of the Eastern Anatolia and Dead Sea Fault Zones. In these anomaly regions, a decreasing trend in b-value may be an indicator of stress increases and an increasing trend in Z-value may show the quiescence areas before the next earthquake occurrences. As a remarkable fact, these areas in the Eastern Anatolia region may be interpreted as one of the most likely locations for the major earthquakes in the future.

Öztürk, Serkan

Many practical problems encountered in quantitative oriented disciplines entail finding the best approximate solution to an over determined system of linear equations. In this study, it is investigated the usage of different regression methods as a theoretical, practical and correct estimation tool in order to obtain the best empirical relationship between surface wave magnitude and rupture length for Turkey earthquakes. For this purpose, a detailed comparison is made among four different regression norms: (1) Least Squares, (2) Least Sum of Absolute Deviations, (3) Total Least Squares or Orthogonal and, (4) Robust Regressions. In order to assess the quality of the fit in a linear regression and to select the best empirical relationship for data sets, the correlation coefficient as a quite simple and very practicable tool is used. A list of all earthquakes where the surface wave magnitude (Ms) and surface rupture length (L) are available is compiled. In order to estimate the empirical relationships between these parameters for Turkey earthquakes, loglinear fit is used and following equations are derived from different norms: Ms = 1.02* LogL + 5.18, for L-2 Norm regression (R-2=0.71), Ms = 1.15* LogL + 4.98, for L-1 Norm regression (R-2=0.92), Ms = 1.04* LogL + 5.15, for Robust regression (R-2=0.75), Ms = 1.25* LogL + 4.86, for Orthogonal regression (R-2=0.68), Consequently, the empirical equation given by the Least Sum of Absolute Deviations regression as Ms = 1.15* LogL + 4.98 with a strong correlation coefficient (R-2=0.92) can be thought as more suitable and more reliable for Turkey earthquakes. Also, local differences in rupture length for a given magnitude can be interpreted in terms of local variation in geologic and seismic efficiencies. Furthermore, this result suggests that seismic efficiency in a region is dependent on rupture length or magnitude.

Öztürk, Serkan

This study was aimed at analysing the relationship between seismic b-value and fractal dimension Dc-value for Turkish epicentres. The earthquake catalogue consisting of 99,737 instrumentally-registered Turkish events was analysed for the period between 1970 and 2011; Turkey was divided into 55 tectonic zones for making a detailed comparison. The b-values were calculated by the maximum likelihood method and the Dc-values were obtained with 95% confidence limits by linear regression. The results showed that higher Dc-values were associated with lower b-values and this could have been an indication of relatively high stress intensity and stronger epicentre clustering in these regions. Orthogonal regression was used to estimate a suitable statistical correlation between two seismotectonic parameters; the Dc = 2.44 - 0.30*b relationship was obtained with a strong negative correlation (r = -0.82) between b-value and Dc-value for Turkish earthquake distribution. This seemed to agree with other regional results obtained for different parts of Turkey and the rest of the world.