Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları

• 1

• MakaleAçık Erişim2025Scopus SJRQ3/r/gumushane/14145
  Spatial and temporal analysis of seismicity and seismotectonic parameters in Albania region

  Ormeni, Rrapo; Öztürk, Serkan; Silo, Erald; Bozo, Rrezart; Hoxha, Ismail; Mucaj, Dionald

  A comprehensive analysis of b-value for the Albanian earthquakes was conducted using the instrumental earthquake catalogue of Albanian region. A total of 38,816 seismic events with magnitudes ML> 0.1 on the Richter scale were utilized. Statistical characteristics of the seismicity were examined based on b-value, as defined by the Gutenberg-Richter law. Considering the magnitude completeness (Mc-value) as 2.7, b-value was estimated as 1.09 ± 0.08 and it indicates a normal stress regime in the region. The Mc-value varies from 1.5 to 3.4, and spatial distribution of b-value ranges from 0.79 to 1.16. Higher b-values (> 1.0) were detected in the southernmost part of Albania, whereas lower b-values (< 1.0) were found in the western part, particularly within the Adriatic-Ionian fault zone and the Lushnje-Elbasan-Dibër transversal fault zone, as well as in the south-eastern Leskovik-Erseka-Korça fault zone. Regions with lower b-values correspond to areas with larger-magnitude events, while higher b-values are associated with smaller earthquakes. These findings suggest that b-values across Albania generally round 1.0, with lower values indicating moderate stress accumulation in the western region and within two other active seismic belts. The b-values less than 1.0 may signal areas of increased seismic potential. The occurrence probability of earthquakes across varying magnitudes was found to be very high (99%-100%) for seismic events with ML between 0.5 and 4.5, and lower (less than 95%) for events with ML > 5.5; it varied from 1% to 60% for events with larger ML > 6.0 for different Tr values. Recurrence periods for smaller magnitudes are relatively short (less than 1 year for magnitudes from 1.0 to 4.2), whereas for larger magnitudes (5.0 to 6.0), recurrence periods are longer, about 100 years. The Albanian region is characterized by a complex geological setting and significant seismic activity, and, thus, it can be stated that these types of analyses may be important in terms of seismotectonic evaluation and seismic hazard.

  AtıfScopus1·WoS1·OpenAlex3

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2024Scopus SJRQ4/r/gumushane/12666
  An evaluation of the earthquake potential with seismic and tectonic variables for the West Anatolian region of Türkiye

  Öztürk, Serkan; Alkan, Hamdi

  In the present study, an evaluation of the region-time-magnitude behaviours of the earthquake occurrences in the West Anatolian Region (WAR), Türkiye, is carried out using the statistical and seis-motectonic parameters such as the b-value of Gutenberg-Richter relation, occurrence probabilities, and return periods of earthquakes. We also have mapped the Coulomb stress changes to observe the current and future earthquake hazard. In recent years, several large earthquakes such as the 1919 Soma (Mw = 6.7) and the 2022 and 2024 Aegean Sea (Mw = 5.3 and Mw = 5.1) revealed earthquake potential in the WAR. Coulomb stress analyses of 41 local events with mostly normal fault mechanisms have shown that posi-tive lobes (> 0.0 in bars) are mainly confined in the crust and uppermost mantle depths around Samos, Kos, and south of Lesvos. The smaller b-values (< 1.0) are observed in the same regions. On the contrary, we have observed a higher b-value from the offshore to onshore, south to north-trending direction, and negative scattered stress lobes (< 0.0 in bars) in slightly NW–SE oriented. The relationship between an increased b-value and negative stress change may indicate a similar seismicity for the region. In addition, we have analyzed the occurrence probabilities and return periods of the earthquakes, which showed us that Mw = 6.0 may occur at 75% in the intermediate term with an estimation of ~7 years. Our results reflect that these types of multiple-parameter assessments are important to define regional seismicity, seismic, tectonic, and statistical behaviours. Consequently, the areas with reductions in b-values and increments in stress imply the possible seismic hazard in the intermediate/long term.

  AtıfScopus9·WoS7·OpenAlex5

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ4/r/gumushane/14549
  Correlations between seismic b-value and heat flow density in Vlora-Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra Fault Zone in Elbasani area, central Albania

  Ormeni, Rrapo; Hasimi, Albana; Öztürk, Serkan; Çomo, Ervin

  In this study, the correlations between the heat flow density and seismotectonic b-value in the El-basani area of Albania were investigated to understand the how low-velocity layers underneath the Elbasani area in central Albania struggling the large-scale Vlora-Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra Fault Zone affect the heat flow data. For this purpose, the heat flow and regional distribution of b-value were imaged for different locations and depths. To achieve the analysis, the Albanian Seismological Catalogue for the period between 1 July 1968 and 26 December 2022, including 1830 earthquakes with a local magnitude of 0.5 ≤ Ml ≤ 5.2 that occurred at the depths below 70 kilometres, was considered. The b-value was calculated as 1.03 ± 0.06 by considering the magnitude of the completeness value as Mc-value = 2.6. This result shows that the b-value of earthquake distribution in the Vlora-Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra (VLED) fault zone is well represented by the Gutenberg and Richter (G-R) scaling law with the b-value close to 1.0. The regional variations of the b-value show that b-values smaller than 0.9 were observed in the western and south-western parts of the Llinxha-Kozan thermal water belt. The depth distribution of the b-value indicates that there exists a sharp decrease in the b-values from 1.15 to 0.7 in the depths varying from 5 to 20 km. The highest heat flow values were observed on the Dumrea diapiric dome and in the central part of the Elbasani area. Thus, our analysis indicates significant and robust correlations between the geothermal and earthquake distribution. The discontinuity of Moho interface is deep in the regions where high b-values were observed. Low b-values are found at the depths ranging from 20–25 km and 35–40 km in the Dumrea evaporite massif area. We have evidence that high b-values and large heat flow values are related to the low seismic velocity layers underneath the Elbasani area. The low-velocity zone (LVZ) in Albania occurs in the Earth’s crust and in the upper mantle. It is characterized by an unusu-ally low seismic shear wave velocity compared to the surrounding depth intervals. It is well known that the low-velocity layers in the Elbasani area are determined in the upper crust, at shallow depths of 2–4 km, and in the middle crust at a 10–14 km depth. Hence, it is suggested that the Moho interface in the eastern part of the Elbasani area is relatively deep (45 km) compared to the western part of Albania (35 km), and the magnitude of earthquakes is smaller where the high heat flow values were observed.

  AtıfScopus7·WoS4

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ4/r/gumushane/12804
  Multiple parameter analysis for assessing and forecasting earthquake hazards in the Lake Van region, Turkey

  Öztürk, Serkan; Alkan, Hamdi

  A detailed spatial-temporal analysis of the seismic activity in and around the Lake Van region was performed using several seismotectonic parameters such as b-value, Z-value, relative intensity (RI), pattern informatics (PI), and Coulomb stress changes. Correlations between these parameters were analyzed to esti-mate and forecast potential seismic hazards in the Lake Van region. Particular attention was paid to the parts of the study region that exhibited smaller b-values, higher Z-values, and high-stress changes at the beginning of 2022 and to the locations of earthquake hotspots determined from the composite earthquake forecast map for 2022–2032, i.e., Muradiye, Çaldıran, Özalp, Erçek, Van city center and Gevaş covering the faults of Çaldıran, Yeniköşk, Erciş, Malazgirt and the fault zones of Saray and Van. To provide more accurate interpretations regarding potential earthquake occurrences in the near future, the seismotectonic parameters analyzed in the scope of this study were compared with the corresponding seismological, geological, geodetical, and geochemical variables reported in the literature. This comparison showed that, firstly, our results are consistent with those reported in previous studies, and, secondly, all these variables should be interpreted in combination to correctly assess strong earthquake hazards. Furthermore, this type of multiple-parameter analysis may be important for the description of seismic, tectonic, and structural characteristics of the nature of the crust. Our findings show that almost all seismotectonic parameters indicative of anomaly regions, i.e., lower b-values, higher Z-values, high-stress distribution, and hotspots, were recorded in the same parts of the study region. Thus, the anomaly regions detected at the beginning of 2019 and between 2022 and 2032 may be considered to be potential zones of future great earthquakes. To summarize, the correlations among these variables may provide accurate information for assessing and forecasting earthquake hazards in this region.

  AtıfScopus11·WoS9

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ4/r/gumushane/12781
  3D data integration for geo-located cave mapping based on unmanned aerial vehicle and terrestrial laser scanner data

  Çömert, Resul; Özdemir, Samed; Bilgilioglu, Burhan Baha; Alemdag, Selçuk; Zeybek, Halil Ibrahim

  The Akçakale cave is a significant natural and cultural heritage site in the Black Sea region of eastern Turkey. The complex geometry and difficult-to-access areas of the cave have made the use of traditional mapping methods challenging. To overcome these limitations, this study utilized TLS and UAV technology to produce highly accurate 2D and 3D data for cave management and risk assessment purposes. The TLS system was used to create a detailed 3D point cloud of the cave interior, while the UAV system generated a 3D model of the surface topography outside the cave. The two sets of data were combined in the GIS environment using a geodetic network established in the study area, providing a common geodetic reference system for both TLS and UAV data. The study found that the cave area is 13,750 m2, which is smaller than the area of 18,000 m2 that was previously estimated using conventional measurement methods. The volume and ceiling heights of the cave were calculated using the elevation models generated from TLS point cloud data. The 3D point cloud data were also used to map dripstone locations on the floor and ceiling of the cave, and the boundaries of rock blocks on the ground were precisely determined. The study identified potential risks associated with the cave, particularly the risk of rockfall in the source rock areas around the cave entrance and the southern part of the cave. The nearest building to the cave is approximately 35 meters away, and all the buildings in the area are less than 300 meters from the cave. In the event of the cave collapse, the buildings in the southern part of the cave are at risk of rockfall. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining data from TLS and UAV systems to generate broad and sensitive cave mapping and risk assessment data, which are critical for cave management and safety. The collected data can be used for cave stability investigations and rockfall risk assessments. This study provides a foundation for future explorations of the Akcakale cave and highlights the potential for modern surveying techniques to enhance our understanding of complex geological structures such as caves.

  • 
  AtıfScopus4·WoS3·OpenAlex4

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ4/r/gumushane/12638
  An evaluation of the characteristic aftershock parameters following the 24 January 2020 MW = 6.8 Elazığ-Sivrice (Türkiye) earthquake

  Öztürk, Serkan

  A comprehensive evaluation of region-time-magnitude behaviours of aftershocks following the 24 January 2020 (Mw = 6.8) Elazığ-Sivrice (Türkiye) earthquake was achieved by using the characteristic parameters such as b-value, p-value, Dc-value and Mamax value of aftershock occurrences. The b-value was calculated as 0.82 ± 0.02 by considering the magnitude of the completeness value as Mcomp = 1.9, and it is relatively small compared to typical b ≈ 1 for the magnitude-frequency relationship of aftershocks. This low b-value may also be caused by the abundance of aftershocks with ML ≥ 4.0. The p-value was computed as 0.80 ± 0.02 with c-value = 0.279 ± 0.098 and is smaller than the global value of p ≈ 1. This low p-value may be due to a relatively slow decay rate of aftershock activity, and the modified Omori model seems appropriate for the estimation of decay parameters. The Dc-value was estimated as 1.87 ± 0.07. This large value shows that aftershocks are homogeneously distributed and more clustered at larger scales/in smaller areas. The temporal variation of b-value indicates that decreases in b-value may result from the gradual increase in the effective stress following the larger aftershocks. The lowest b-values and Mamax values greater than 5.0 were observed in the north, south and southwest parts of the mainshock including Pütürge and Erkenek segments. These results show that there is an apparent relation between the smallest b-values and the largest Mamax values. The largest p-values were estimated in and around the main shock including Pütürge segment. The regions with the smallest b-value and the largest p-value have high stress and coseismic deformation, respectively. Stress variations and coseismic deformation are extremely effective on the changes of b-and p-values. As a remarkable result, aftershock hazard following the mainshock may be considered extremely related to aftershock parameters, and detailed analyses of the region-time-magnitude characteristics of aftershocks are recommended for a preliminary evaluation following the mainshock.

  AtıfScopus3·WoS2·OpenAlex2

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2023Scopus SJRQ4/r/gumushane/11896
  Evaluation of stability in rock-fill dams by numerical analysis methods: a case study (Gümüşhane-Midi Dam, Türkiye)

  Sari, Mahmut

  Serious stability issues could arise both during and after construction if the dams’ body designs are not realistically accurate. Engineering studies are therefore crucial for identifying the body’s instability prop-erties in designing the dam body. In this study, horizontal and vertical displacement and stress-deformation analyses were carried out on the body of the Midi Waste Dam located in Karamustafa Village of Gümüşhane Province. In these analyses, the elasticity modulus and Poisson’s ratio of the soil were determined using the seismic method, which is one of the commonly used geophysical methods. The cohesion and internal friction angle of the rock fill were determined by taking into account Leps’ charts. The state of the dam body under the influence of the siltation load and seismic load at the end of operation was shown by applying the finite element method. It was found that there was no instability issue with the researched dam because the safety numbers obtained from the stability study of the dam body were greater than the 1.2 safety number accepted for the stability of the dams (SRF: 2.03, SRF: 1.37). The maximum vertical displacement of the dam body at the foundation base was found as 3.78 cm, the horizontal displacement as 5.80 cm, and the total displacement amount as 6.75 cm when the dam body was examined in terms of displacements. In terms of the statics of the dam body, the vertical, horizontal, and total displacements estimated with the numerical analysis methods did not present a problem, and it was demonstrated that this scenario was also supported by the stability of the body in the applied analyses.

  AtıfScopus7·WoS7

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2021Scopus SJRQ3/r/gumushane/14810
  A comprehensive spatiotemporal evaluation of the current earthquake activity in different parts of the Frakull-Durrës fault zone, Albania

  Öztürk, Serkan; Ormeni, Rrapo

  This study presents a detailed spatiotemporal analysis for the Frakull-Durrës (F-D) fault zone at the beginning of 2020. For this purpose, the most frequently used statistical seismicity parameters such as magnitude completeness, Mc-value, Gutenberg-Richter b-value, recurrence times, annual probabilities and standard normal deviate, Z-value, were mapped. The F-D fault zone was divided into two seismogenic subregions, and Mc-value was taken as 2.5 for both the south and north parts. The b-value was estimated as 0.83 ± 0.06 for the south part and 0.85 ± 0.06 for the north part. b-values for both zones are smaller than 1.0 and these values may be considered to be a larger stress accumulation to build up over time and to be released by the next possible earthquakes. Clear decreasing trends were observed in time variations of b-values before the occurrences of several strong main shocks. Analyses of annual probabilities and recurrence times suggest that the study region has an intermediate/long-term earthquake hazard in comparison to occurrences of strong/destructive earthquakes in the short term. Some anomaly regions of a small b-value and a large Z-value were found along the F-D fault zone at the beginning of 2020: i) among Lushnje-Tirana-Durrës including the middle part of the F-D fault zone, ii) in and around Lezha including the north end of the F-D fault zone. Thus, the combination of regions with the lowest b-value and largest Z-value may supply preliminary results for earthquake hazard, and these regions may be considered to be the most likely regions for future strong/large earthquakes in the F-D fault zone.

  AtıfScopus7·WoS2·OpenAlex4

  İncele
• MakaleAçık Erişim2021Scopus SJRQ3/r/gumushane/13275
  Statistical behaviours of earthquake occurrences in the Central Anatolian Region of Turkey: region-time-magnitude analyses

  Öztürk, Serkan

  The main objective of this work is to make detailed region-time-magnitude analyses by describ-ing the statistical behaviours of earthquakes in the Central Anatolian Region of Turkey. In this scope, several seismic and tectonic parameters such as Mcomp, b-value, Dc-value, Z-value, recurrence times and annual probabilities were evaluated. For the analyses, a homogeneous catalogue including 10,146 earthquakes with 1.0 ≤ Md ≤ 5.7 between 30 July 1975 and 29 December 2018 was used and spatio-temporal changes of earthquake behaviours were mapped for the beginning of 2019. Earthquake magnitudes varied from 1.9 to 3.0 on average, and hence Mcomp was considered to be 2.6. The b-value was calculated as 1.26 ± 0.07, and this relatively large value indicates that small-magnitude events are dominant. The Dc-value was computed as 1.31 ± 0.03. This small value means that distances between epicentres approach the diameter of the cluster, and seismic activity is more clustered at smaller scales or in larger regions. The spatio-temporal analyses of recurrence times suggest that the Central Anatolian Region has an intermediate/long-term earthquake hazard in comparison to occurrences of strong earthquakes in the short term. Several anomaly regions of a small b-value and a large Z-value were found in and around the Tuzgölü Fault Zone, Central Anatolian Fault Zone, Salanda fault and Niğde fault at the beginning of 2019. Thus, a combination of the regions with a lower b-value, a higher Z-value and also moderate recurrence times may give significant clues for the future possible earthquakes, and detected regions may be thought to be the most likely areas for strong/large events in the Central Anatolian Region.

  AtıfScopus2·WoS1·OpenAlex3

  İncele