Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları

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• MakaleYalnız künye2025/r/gumushane/12505
  Spatial and temporal patterns of drought under different scenarios for Türkiye in the 21st century

  Yıldız, Mehmet Berkant; Nacar, Sinan; Şan, Murat; Kankal, Murat

  This study investigates the impact of climate change on drought conditions in Türkiye for two distinct future periods: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2071–2100), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). High-resolution regional climate projections from 19 GCM-RCM combinations within the EURO-CORDEX framework were evaluated. Based on performance analysis against ERA5-Land data, the four best-performing models were selected for multi-model ensemble averaging (MMEA). Drought conditions were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales. Three trend analysis methods, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's Slope, were applied to examine spatiotemporal drought patterns. SPI-based analyses show a significant increase in short- and medium-term variability (SPI-3 and SPI-6) and long-term droughts (SPI-12), especially in the Central Anatolia, Southeastern and Eastern regions. The applied trend detection methods consistently point to a widespread drying tendency, with more pronounced changes projected in the latter half of the century. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, although the drought signals are less severe, the persistence of negative trends highlights that Türkiye will still be at risk, even with moderate efforts to mitigate climate change. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrating climate-driven drought projections into national and regional planning efforts.

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• MakaleYalnız künye2024/r/gumushane/11295
  Availability of sedimentary and volcanic rock deposits on Northeastern Turkey as concrete aggregates

  Çavdar, Ahmet; Çavdar, Özlem

  Turkey has large aggregate deposits; however, these deposits cannot be used effectively due to a lack of controls. This can lead to fatal errors, as in the 6 February 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquakes. The main motivation of this study is to investigate the availability of existing and new aggregate deposits as concrete aggregates in northeastern Turkey. Thus, the quality of aggregates in this region will be studied comparatively. This research was carried out with aggregate samples taken from 30 different rock quarries in 10 different provinces in this region of Turkey. First, the locations of 30 crushed rock aggregates were identified, and their petrographic, mineralogical, physical, geometric and durability properties were determined. Fifteen different test procedures were applied to 30 crushed rock samples. It was concluded that these rocks are generally sedimentary rock types and that 18 of these 30 samples are of limestone origin. To obtain high-strength concrete, in addition to quality cement, the aggregates used must also be of high quality. The use of aggregate resources mentioned in this study for building concrete will contribute to the production of high-strength concrete. These samples, which generally have sufficient physical, mechanical and durability properties, meet the limitations of the standards much better than concrete aggregates. High-statistical-performance regression equations were obtained for the physical and durability properties.

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• MakaleYalnız künye2023/r/gumushane/12649
  Trend analysis of precipitation using innovative approaches in northwestern Turkey

  Körük, Ali Emre; Kankal, Murat; Yıldız, Mehmet Berkant; Akçay, Fatma; Şan, Murat; Nacar, Sinan

  Precipitation is highly sensitive to climate change, and monitoring its trends over time is essential for understanding the effects of global warming on the Earth's water cycle. This study investigates the effects of climate change on monthly precipitation in the Susurluk Basin located in northwestern Turkey, using innovative trend analysis methods. Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) using star graphics and Improved Visualization for Innovative Trend Analysis (IV-ITA) techniques were used to analyze precipitation data from nine stations in the basin over 50 years (1970–2019), and the findings were compared to classical Mann-Kendall (MK) results. According to the trend analysis results, the MK method detected significant trends in only two months in the decreasing direction. In these decreasing trends observed at Simav and Keles stations in November, z values were calculated as −2.38 and −2.05, respectively. IPTA method detected increasing trends in 54 months and decreasing trends in 40 months; this means there is a change of more than 5% between two half series. The IV-ITA method indicated an increase of more than 40% in the low values for January, March, August, and September. In addition, there was an increasing trend of more than 40% in the high values observed in September at all stations. It was observed that mean precipitation heights increased from September to December and then decreased throughout the basin. It is predicted that decreases in precipitation during dry seasons may put intense pressure on agricultural water use and affect water quality. In addition, the increase in precipitation in spring months may increase flood events. It was determined that graphical innovative trend analysis methods are more effective in trend identification than MK, and these methods' results have much higher visual inspection and linguistic interpretation possibilities. Innovative methods allow for more flexible and in-depth analysis using different statistical parameters.

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