Ulukavak, Mustafa; Yalçınkaya, Mualla; Kayıkçı, Emine Tanır; Öztürk, Serkan; Kandemir, Raif; Karslı, Hakan

In this work, a relationship between ionospheric TEC anomalies and different earthquake magnitude groups before the main shocks was investigated. For this purpose, 2942 global earthquakes with Mw≥6 from 2000 to 2019 and possible ionospheric TEC anomalies that occurred before earthquakes were examined by considering 13 different index values of space weather conditions (geomagnetic storm indices and solar activity indices). Anomalies of ionospheric TEC changes were defined for 15-days before and 4-days after the earthquakes by using 15-days moving median method with the length of 15 days. Earthquakes were first grouped according to their magnitudes, and then negative and positive TEC anomalies in quiet days before the earthquakes were detected. These anomalies were observed as ∼5–13, ∼5-10, ∼5-15, ∼3-13, ∼7-15, ∼1 and ∼5-8 days ago for the earthquakes of 6.0 ≤ Mw<6.5, 6.5 ≤ Mw<7.0, 7.0 ≤ Mw<7.5, 7.5 ≤ Mw<8.0, 8.0 ≤ Mw<8.5, 8.5 ≤ Mw<9.0, and 9.0 ≤ Mw<9.5, respectively. Mean of changes in TEC anomalies of these groups is 44.2 % TECU and we detected that the number of positive anomalies in each group is larger than the number of negative anomalies. Consequently, these analyses clearly show that the day-to-day changes in TEC anomalies may supply significant precursors prior to the global earthquakes (M ≥ 6) in the short-term earthquake prediction for main shocks.

Eyuboglu, Yener; Santosh, M.; Dudas, Francis O.; Chung, Sun-Lin; Akaryali, Enver

The eastern Pontide orogenic belt in Turkey offers a critical region to evaluate the geodynamic evolution of the eastern Mediterranean region during the late Mesozoic-Cenozoic. Here we synthesize results from our exhaustive database on the geochemical characteristics of adakitic magmatism from 137 bodies covering 7 domains in the southern zone of eastern Pontides. Together with new Pb-Sr-Nd results, we show that the adakitic magmatism in the eastern Pontide belt is clearly linked to slab window processes during ridge subduction, as against the earlier models that assumed partial melting of a delaminated or thickened lower continental crust following collision. The isotopic compositions display a complex pattern and suggest mixing of multiple source materials such as depleted mantle, enriched lithospheric mantle, and upper crust. We also confirm a southward polarity of subduction as against the previous models that assumed a northward subduction. We supplement our model with evidence for a northward propagation of the adakitic magmatism, spatial and temporal variations in arc magmatism, presence of south-dipping reverse faults and a synthesis of the available paleomagnetic data. Our studies also suggest that the Black-Sea is a remnant of the Tethyan ocean that was situated to the north of the arc during the late Mesozoic-Cenozoic as against the correlation to a late Mesozoic-Cenozoic back-arc basin related to a northward subduction of the Paleo- or Neo-tethyan oceanic lithosphere in alternate models. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.